June 26, 2024

Bitcoin, after a brief surge above $62,000 in the early Asian session, retreated to $61,400. The price fell amid significant on-chain activity in the German government's BTC holdings. According to blockchain sleuth Lookonchain, the eurozone's largest economy transferred 750 BTC, valued at over $46 million, sending 250 BTC to crypto exchanges Bitstamp and Kraken, an indication that the country may be preparing to sell the tokens. This action, part of a divestment of BTC seized from a privacy website, added to bearish pressures in the market. The government holds over 45,000 BTC. Ether followed bitcoin's lead, dropping from $3,425 to $3,375 and CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) also retreated, losing about 0.14%. 

Alternative cryptocurrencies have recently experienced a bigger liquidity drain than bitcoin and ether. For instance, notional open interest – or dollar value locked in active futures contracts – tied to altcoins has declined by 34% to $12 billion since BTC peaked above $70,000 on June 7, according to data source Coinalyze. That compares with a 13% drop in cumulative open interest in bitcoin and ether futures to $29.3 billion. "This one-way flow quickly turns reflexive to the downside and exacerbates underperformance relative to majors. Bid-side liquidity is less incentivized, and traders hesitate to catch a falling knife. Throw in fewer market makers and a huge increase in coin issuance and you've got a very sloppy altcoin market," Jeff Dorman, the chief investment officer at Arca, wrote in the weekly note. 

The Cardano blockchain demonstrated its resilience by successfully repelling a distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack aimed at stealing staked tokens on Tuesday. The attack was thwarted without any disruptions to the network's operations. In a DDoS attack, a large number of compromised computers, known as "bots" or "zombies," flood a target with excessive traffic, causing it to become overloaded and inaccessible. Philip Disarro, the founder of Cardano development firm Anastasia, said the attack could be stopped by deregistering the stake credentials used by the attacker. The attack was halted shortly after his post. Cardano's ADA token remained stable before falling slightly to under 39 cents in line with the broader market sentiment. 

On Friday at 08:00 UTC, bitcoin (BTC) options worth $6.68 billion and ether (ETH) options worth $3.5 billion are set to expire on the leading crypto derivatives exchange Deribit. 

The impending expiry, which represents over 40% of the current cumulative open interest of over $23 billion, could trigger a surge in market volatility. Large quarterly expiries often lead to increased volatility, making prices more unpredictable due to higher trading volumes and the closing/rollover of positions.

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, has dropped nearly 9% this month, testing bargain hunters below $60,000 at one point. As usual, the sell-off has weighed over the broader market, pulling ether down by almost 10%.

"While short-term bearish sentiment is evident, traders anticipate a positive shift for bitcoin by July 12 and ETH by July 5, looking at options skew. Trading in the ETH ETF is expected to start in the first week of July," Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers noted.

- Omkar Godbole