Four Truths About OpenAI’s Wild Financial Position

As OpenAI raised the multibillion-dollar funding round it closed earlier this month, it sent its financial projections to various interested parties. Last week, The Information published a good chunk of that presentation, illuminating the company’s balance sheet and future plans.

OpenAI’s finances are as bizarre as you might expect. It’s paying hundreds of millions to Microsoft before making a profit, it’s projecting many billions in losses in the coming years (far more than it’s raised), and it’s putting forth some wild economic ideas including removing training costs from profit calculations.

Here are four revealing truths from OpenAI’s financial presentation, with some analysis of what they mean for the company and the broader AI industry:

1. OpenAI thinks its training costs might shift in a big way. 

OpenAI told investors its training costs weren’t fixed, and it could ramp them up and down in the future. This contributed to a novel view of profitability. “OpenAI is emphasizing to investors a metric of profitability that excludes some major expenses, such as the billions it is spending annually on training its large language models" The Information reported.

OpenAI is spending approximately $3 billion on training this year, so excluding training from profitability seems like fuzzy math. But consider the way the company’s latest o1 model operates: It’s a reasoning model that does much of its processing after the prompt, transferring some of the traditional training load to inference. Training costs, therefore, might be fairly unpredictable in the long term. And you might want to account for that in your projections.

OpenAI will continue to develop larger foundational models, though, which requires spending plenty of dollars on training. And any notion that GPT-6 will be its ‘final model’ due to resource constraints isn’t right. Looking forward, different techniques might slim down OpenAI’s training costs, but it’s hard to see these minimized to the point they go away. Still, the funny math is an interesting signal.

2. OpenAI thinks ChatGPT will make more money than its API

Experts have long held that OpenAI’s technology would be most valuable in the hands of developers, with ChatGPT serving mostly as a demo. But OpenAI’s projections show the opposite. The company is expecting ChatGPT to bring in the lions’ share of its revenue until at least 2029. 

OpenAI’s massive expectations for ChatGPT might suggest that building large GenAI foundation models is growing commoditized, with open source efforts like Meta’s Llama serving as sufficient substitutes for OpenAI’s GPT. But the documents underscore just how much momentum OpenAI believes it has with ChatGPT. The chatbot now comes in various flavors — including consumer, enterprise, team, and edu — giving it plenty of room to expand.

That said, OpenAI is counting people’s interest in chatting and speaking with AI bots to grow considerably over time. It may happen, but the user interface is still unproven. And if ChatGPT adoption doesn’t grow according to plan, OpenAI could have a revenue problem.

3. OpenAI is already paying Microsoft lots of money 

Microsoft’s invested nearly $14 billion in OpenAI, entitling it to 49% of the company’s profits after some initial investors get paid back. But surprisingly, OpenAI is already paying Microsoft a large sum of money before turning a profit. In the documents, OpenAI projected a $700 payout to Microsoft in 2024, a large portion of its $4 billion total revenue. 

After Microsoft’s $700 million payout, and $3 billion in training costs, OpenAI would just squeak out a profit in 2024. But add in $2 billion for inference, $700 million for salaries, $500 million for data, and various other costs, and OpenAI is projecting a $5 billion loss this year. The AI business is expensive, and OpenAI’s responsibilities to Microsoft make it even more costly.

4. OpenAI will have to raise again (soon)

OpenAI raised $6.6 billion this month, the largest venture capital round in history. But it plans to lose $5 billion this year alone. And by 2026, it could be losing $14 billion per year. That’s head exploding territory. If OpenAI keeps burning money at this rate, it will have to raise another round soon. Perhaps as early as 2025. And when that moment comes, we’ll learn how sustainable OpenAI business is, and what type of investors (if any) will have the stomach for such significant, repeated investment. 

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What Else I’m Reading, Etc.

OpenAI’s relationship with Microsoft is fraying [New York Times]

Meta does another layoff [The Verge]

Donald Trump says Tim Cook called him upset about EU fines [The Verge]

The Google exec overseeing search and ads is takes a new position within the company [WSJ]

Investor Stanley Druckenmiller is licking his wounds after selling NVIDIA too early [CNBC]

Harvard’s endowment is now $53.2 billion [Reuters]

I joined CNBC’s Closing Bell to talk Netflix earnings [YouTube]

Number of The Week

€50 billion

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Quote of The Week

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Meta chief AI scientist Yann LeCun on the deceptive smarts of large language models

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