| | 08/07/2024 Monday briefing: French opposition to the far right comes out on top | | | | Nimo Omer |  |
| | | Good morning. The far right were riding high from the first round of voting in the French elections last week, after coming out on top with an unprecedented 12m votes. They were hoping to replicate that historic victory last night but their plans were scuppered after exit polls indicated that an unexpected left wing surge blocked the National Rally (RN) and its allies from their anticipated success. The New Popular Front alliance – which includes the former ruling Socialist party (PS), France Unbowed, Greens and Communists – secured 182 seats in the 577-seat parliament. President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance also performed better than expected with 163 seats, while the RN and their allies came short of their poll leads, with only 143 seats, to come in third. Macron’s protege Gabriel Attal announced that he would offer his resignation as prime minister this morning. No party has an outright majority, meaning that there will be a hung parliament in a country that is not used to coalition building. Leaders of the left wing alliance were elated. The Green leader Marine Tondelier said: “Tonight, social justice won. Tonight, environmental justice won. Tonight, the people won. And it’s only just started!” The far right were unable to hide their disappointment. There were reports of tears and gasps of horror at the RN’s election party after the results came in. Far-right politician Marion Marécha said that this national assembly is not representative of what the French people think, while Jordan Bardella, Marine Le Pen’s second in command, thanked supporters of the RN and added that an “alliance of dishonour” prevailed. Today’s newsletter will run through the latest news from the French election and what might happen next, with the help of the Guardian’s Paris correspondent, Angelique Chrisafis. That’s right after the headlines. | | | | Five big stories | 1 | Environment | The world has baked for 12 consecutive months in temperatures 1.5C greater than their average before the fossil fuel era, new data shows. Temperatures between July 2023 and June 2024 were the highest on record, scientists found, creating a year-long stretch in which the Earth was 1.64C hotter than in preindustrial times. | 2 | Politics | Rachel Reeves has pledged to “fix the foundations” of the British economy, revealing an immediate plan to boost growth by unblocking infrastructure and private investment in her first speech as chancellor. In an address to business leaders, she will say that economic growth for all parts of the country is “a national mission”. | 3 | Conservatives | A number of opposition MPs have suggested that the former home secretary Suella Braverman is losing support as a potential party leader, as some who lost votes across southern England privately urged colleagues to resist a lurch to the right. | 4 | | 5 | |
| | | | In depth: The ‘republican front’ holds | | Hundreds of centrist and left wing candidates pulled out of their races to avoid splitting the vote in the second round after the RN’s strong showing last week. In France this exercise of widespread tactical voting is known as a “republican front”, a collaborative effort to stop the far right, and it was more successful than anyone anticipated – even left wing supporters and activists could scarcely believe the results. “Crowds celebrated into the early hours of Monday morning in Paris as the left alliance was on track to become the biggest bloc,” Angelique says. “There was a clear movement by voters to keep the RN from power”. Though the initial response from Macron’s camp was restrained, the results will come as a welcome relief to the president, whose political prospects one week ago seemed dire, but who now has a chance to restore some of his legacy. However, the path ahead remains rocky – the centrist and left wing alliances are not natural allies with Macron at times portraying the far left as being equally as dangerous as the far right during the campaign. While there will be much jubilation, the fragmented parliamentary results tell a story about simmering and deep political tensions that could leave France in a state of political inertia for the foreseeable future.
Who is the left-wing alliance? The NFP only came together a month ago with the specific goal of stopping a far-right majority. The name of the hastily formed coalition takes inspiration from the original Popular Front that stopped the far-right in 1936. But the contemporary alliance of the French left has a fraught history. Towards the end of last year, the last alliance with the same parties, the New Ecological and Social People’s Union (Nupes), effectively collapsed because of internal conflict. The left-wing parties ran separate party lists during the June European elections where the far right made huge gains. Following Macron’s decision to call a shock snap election in early June, the parties reunited with the common goal of blocking the far right from the gates of power. Nupes was dominated by Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Unbowed but there is no clear leader for NPF, with different party leaders representing the coalition at debates and on the campaign trail. France Unbowed was formed in 2016 by the 72-year-old left wing firebrand Mélenchon (pictured above) who has had a long career in politics, holding ministerial positions in previous governments. His radical views on taxation and the war in Gaza and antagonistic rhetoric have provoked outrage from other politicians and some corners of the public. The Socialist, Communist and Green parties that make up the rest of the alliance range from staunch anti-capitalists to social democrats. They did not stand solely in opposition to National Rally. The group had a series of popular policy pledges including raising the minimum monthly wage to €1,600; scrapping Macron’s controversial pension reform; capping the price of electricity, fuel, gas and food and creating a smoother legal process for asylum seekers. The alliance will have to grapple with its deep seated disagreements on issues like the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and the European Union.
Where does this leave the far right? Marine Le Pen, who intends to run for president in 2027, stood defiantly in the face of the bruising result, saying that “the tide is rising. It did not rise high enough this time, but it continues to rise and our victory has simply been deferred.” This result will come as a relief to centrist and left wing voters and politicians in France and across Europe. However, it is important to understand the context of this election result. The RN have still had a historic result, with dozens more seats than they had one month ago. “Although the National Rally was held far back from power, it nonetheless continued its slow but steady rise under Le Pen and will reach its highest ever number of seats in parliament,” Angelique says.
What’s next? While the left wing alliance and Macron’s centrists were able to stave off a far right wave, the future of French politics is certainly not clear. No party or alliance has an outright majority, meaning that parliament will be splintered. Attal has offered his resignation as PM, but there is no clear frontrunner for the position. Mélenchon said the left wing alliance is “ready to govern” and that Macron has a duty to pick a prime minister from the NPF, though he has said that he will not “impose” himself into a leadership role, perhaps aware of his polarising reputation. Centrist politicians have said that they will not work with anyone from France Unbowed, but given the centrist alliance lost so many seats picking a prime minister from its own ranks would be an unpopular move. The president could pick a non-partisan technocratic leader – although France has no experience of such an appointment – or he could ask Attal to stay on in a caretaker form. Another less than ideal option is that parties cooperate through different ad hoc alliances to vote through individual pieces of legislation. This is the strategy that Macron has tried since losing his majority two years ago and has had little success with. For more information on this, read Jon Henley’s explainer on the possible next steps for French government. “France is entering uncharted waters with no clear absolute majority in parliament,” Angelique says. With the national assembly divided into three blocs, she says it is uncertain how a government can be formed and with who. “It could take weeks,” she says. | | | | | General election 2024: Labour gets to work | | There was no time to rest for Keir Starmer after Labour won its landslide victory last week, with a massive Commons majority of 174. The new prime minister got to work straight away, announcing his new cabinet, scrapping the Conservative’s Rwanda deportation policy, starting on a tour of the UK by meeting with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar in Scotland (pictured above), calling world leaders, and hitting out at the overcrowded prison system which he vowed to transform, appointing prison reform champion James Timpson as a prisons minister. Alongside outsiders like Timpson and Sir Patrick Vallance, appointed as a science minister, Starmer brought back senior figures from the New Labour government like Jacqui Smith, now an education minister, and Douglas Alexander, now a trade minister. The most surprising move was the appointment of Richard Hermer as attorney general, a human rights lawyer whose position on Gaza, he has said that it is “almost impossible to conceive” how an Israeli siege that denied civilians food and water could be in compliance with international law, goes beyond what the Labour party has said thus far. It will be a “government of all the talents”, according to his supporters, who insist that the appointments are demonstrations of Starmer’s desire to lead in a non-ideological way. As the Conservatives regroup, the conversation about a leadership race has already begun. Former cabinet minister Robert Jenrick is the first Tory to signal his interest in the top job, although insisted that it was “self-indulgent” to talk about leadership bids three days out from his party’s political collapse. Keep a close eye on First Edition, where we will be returning to the fallout of the general election throughout the week.
Read more | Michael Savage has written a helpful rundown of five new Labour MPs to keep a close eye on. While Labour had a sweeping victory, there were a number of seats that they lost to independents running on a pro-Palestine ticket – Haroon Siddique takes a look at who they are and what they plan to do now they’re in office. Five public sector workers spoke with James Tapper, Anna Fazackerley and Lizzie Dearden about what the new Labour government needs to do to fix their struggling sectors.
| | | | Sport | | Tennis | Lulu Sun, making her Wimbledon debut, has become the first woman in 14 years to come through qualifying and reach the quarter-final, knocking Emma Raducanu, Britain’s last contender, out of the tournament in the process. Formula One | Lewis Hamilton thrilled the home fans as he drove to victory in the British Grand Prix, his ninth win at Silverstone, to end his more than two year wait for a first place finish. The Mercedes driver beat Red Bull’s Max Verstappen into second and McLaren’s Lando Norris into third in a gripping and thrilling encounter. Cycling | Anthony Turgis prevailed at the end of a gruelling 199km stage nine, but all eyes were on the yellow jersey holder, Tadej Pogacar, as he relentlessly attacked defending champion Jonas Vingegaard. He retained the lead, but failed to add to it as the Dane was expertly protected by his Visma-Lease a Bike teammates. | | Advertisement |  |
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 | | | The front pages | | The Guardian leads on “Surprise surge for left pushes French far right into third place”. The Financial Times has “France’s leftist alliance on track to halt rise of Le Pen’s RN, polls show”. The Mirror looks ahead to Rachel Reeves’ first speech, with “Chancellor: I’ll make every Brit better off”. The Telegraph follows the same story with “Labour to bring back housing targets”, while the Mail says “Reeves: I’ll rip up rules on planning within days”. The Times reports “Homes on green belt in new dash for growth”. The i looks at foreign secretary, David Lammy’s inbox, with “Labour heading for new Brexit clash with EU on extra migrants”. | | | | Today in Focus | | Keir Starmer’s first weekend in power Keir Starmer vowed to put the country before his party as he appointed his cabinet and toured the four countries of the UK. Jonathan Freedland reports on what we have learned from the new prime minister’s first days in office. | | | | | Cartoon of the day | Nicola Jennings | | | | | The Upside | A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad | | In this week’s a new start at 60 column, Rachel Thompson takes Isabelle Aron through her amazing story of reinvention, which happened at the age of 63. Thompson, from north London, attended a workshop at a local activity centre, organised by the esteemed dance organisation Sadler’s Wells. She was later scouted by the Company of Elders, their dance company for non-professional dancers over 60. It proved a form of therapy while caring for her late husband, and has become the highlight of Thompson’s week. “It’s been a complete and utter joy,” she says. On the bus to her first rehearsal seven year ago, someone offered her their seat. “I said: ‘No thank you, I’m on my way to dance at Sadler’s Wells!’ I was high as a kite – and I still get that feeling”. Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday | | | | Bored at work? | And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow. | | | | | | … there is a good reason why not to support the Guardian | | Not everyone can afford to pay for news right now. That is why we keep our journalism open for everyone to read. If this is you, please continue to read for free.
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