| Dear Reader, Let’s not sugarcoat it. First-quarter GDP just turned negative. Real GDP shrank -0.3%, the first contraction we’ve seen since the pandemic. That alone should raise eyebrows. But there’s more. Core PCE came in at 3.5%, well above expectations, and ADP payrolls missed badly, coming in at 114,000 new jobs versus 162,000 forecasted. Now, you could try to explain away each of these in isolation. But the reality is the underlying momentum just isn’t there. And the headline GDP number doesn’t tell the whole story. To some, it points to a breakdown in the global interdependence we've relied on since Bretton Woods—especially given what Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders (a speaker at our upcoming SIC 2025) highlighted in the chart below: Net exports subtracted nearly five full percentage points from Q1 GDP
Source: Bloomberg, shared by @LizAnnSonders
Add it all up, and what we’re seeing is the framework of a global economy being quietly, but fundamentally, reorganized in real time. [Yes, I want to reserve my Virtual Pass for SIC 2025 now] While that’s enough for most people to throw in the towel (and with good reason), not everyone sees the world tilting off its axis. One of my longtime friends, and one of the most consistently accurate market observers I know, sees something different. His name is Ed Yardeni. Ed believes markets are now so saturated with pessimism, it would take a full-blown Lehman-style collapse to justify it. But he doesn’t see that coming. And he thinks giving up on 2025 too soon could be a costly mistake. That kind of thinking—disciplined, contrarian, and grounded in decades of data—is exactly why Ed is part of this year’s SIC faculty. The theme of SIC 2025 is the “global vibe shift,” and a high-level, data-driven overview of how the world is realigning is just the starting point… because it goes much deeper than that. You’ll hear how the most respected strategists and capital allocators are responding in real time.
What they’re watching. Where they’re cautious. And how they’re positioning themselves during one of the most misunderstood and complex transitions of the modern era. [Yes, I want to reserve my Virtual Pass for SIC 2025 now] Let’s be honest: No one predicted exactly where we are today. Just 100 days ago, markets were pricing in stability and soft landings. Today, we’re talking about the end of Bretton Woods-style interdependence. Consumer sentiment has collapsed. And the smartest people in the world are recalibrating and rethinking what comes next. If you’ve found yourself questioning the markets, the forecasts, or even your own portfolio… you’re not alone. One of my favorite pieces of feedback from past SIC attendees is this: “One or two unexpected sessions changed how I saw everything.” That’s the real value of the SIC. We’ll hear from people who’ve lived through turning points like this before. People with skin in the game. People who have to get it right. And because you’ll have full access to every session recording and transcript, you’re taking SIC 2025 with you to review whenever you need to. The agenda is live. You’ll find the full speaker list and access details on the next page. We have bulk discounts available this year. Don’t procrastinate. I hope to see you then. [Yes, I want to reserve my Virtual Pass for SIC 2025 now] Your positioning for a world shifting beneath our feet analyst,
John Mauldin
PS: I’m proud to say that SIC 2025 has been approved for 22 CFP Board and 22 IWI credit hours. That means if you’re a certified advisor, planner, or wealth manager, you can knock out a major portion of your continuing education requirements—without travel, without extra forms—just by tuning in online. In a year like this, staying current is about compliance, preparation, and sharpening your strategy for what’s coming next. Advisors can earn their 22 CE hours, and go away with ideas and connections that can shape their thinking for the rest of the year. | 