Good morning from Berlin.

As Germany heads towards snap elections in February, sparked by the breakdown of the ruling coalition, incumbent social democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and the frontrunner to succeed him, Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), are laying their cards on the table.

Since mid-2022, CDU/CSU has been steadily leading polls, followed by the far-right AfD,  with SPD in third place.

As projections for the return of a grand coalition are gaining ground, the revival of the German economy and a stricter stance on migration top the agendas of both parties. 

As Scholz warned about a “tough” economic situation, the announced measures are focused on a national level, and signals that Germany is looking to integrate measures into wider European ones are missing.

This approach contradicts the much-discussed need for EU coordination to increase the bloc’s competitiveness based on Mario Draghi’s report.

Europe is left hoping for spill-over effects from a German recovery, as the negative impact of its downturn has also been widely felt, writes Euractiv’s Nick Alipour. 

In this “Politics Decoded Brief”, Euractiv’s Magnus Lund Nielsen analyses the current deadlock of candidate commissioner hearings and what is next for Brussels politics.

In agriculture, the European Parliament backed the creation of a 'no risk' category in the EU's anti-deforestation rules to lower bureaucratic requirements for countries that fall into this group. This move has raised eyebrows among the EU's trading partners.  

On the defence front, the European Commission announced on Thursday that the EU would help member states jointly buy five different defence products, which would be the first-ever move to support defence purchases.

PARIS | BERLIN

Berlin-Paris clash over Mercosur worsens amid calls to split trade deal. Pressure is increasing from Germany to conclude the free trade agreement between the EU and the Latin American Mercosur bloc by December, with key politicians calling to split the deal to circumvent French opposition, blaming Paris’ “misguided patriotism.” Read more.

LONDON

UK must keep trade open and EU close, Bank of England says. Britain should stand up for free trade and rebuild ties with the European Union as the global economy fragments, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said in a speech on Thursday that cast an eye towards Donald Trump's White House return. Read more.

MADRID

The far-right Vox party, the third-largest force in the Spanish parliament, on Thursday urged the centre-right Partido Popular to veto all potential Socialist candidates for European commissioner from the Iberian country. Read more.

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ROME

NGO rejects claims of 'sabotage' in Albania-Italy migration deal. The humanitarian organisation SOS Mediterranée has sabotaged the Albanian-Italian migration outsourcing programme following allegations reported by Libero and echoed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's Fratelli d'Italia on its official social media channels. Read more.

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LISBON

Commission gives countries two months to transpose EU motor insurance directive. The European Commission on Thursday gave Portugal and five other countries two months to fully transpose the EU directive on motor insurance into national law, threatening to take the matter to court. Read more.

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ATHENS

Greece in talks with Israel to develop 2 billion euro 'Iron Dome'. Greece is in talks with Israel to develop a 2 billion euro ($2.11 billion) anti-aircraft and missile defence dome, part of a wider push to modernise its armed forces as it recovers from a protracted debt crisis, Greek officials said on Thursday. Read more.

PRAGUE

The United States remains Europe’s greatest ally regardless of who is in the White House, said Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský, adding that to face Russia, the EU should back newly elected US President Donald Trump's China policy. Read more.

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WARSAW

Polish ruling coalition splits ahead of presidential elections. As Poland’s main parties prepare to announce their candidates for next year's presidential elections, the chances of a joint ruling coalition candidate have diminished. Read more. 

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BRATISLAVA

Slovak Interior Minister faces mounting pressure after police brutality incident. Slovak Interior Minister Matúš Šutaj Eštok (leader of Hlas-SD/NI) has come under fire after the death of a detainee exposed cases of police brutality, despite claiming it was an isolated incident, while the opposition is demanding accountability, including his resignation. Read more.

SOFIA

Bulgaria's infrastructure not ready to use new F-16 jets. Bulgaria, which is waiting to receive its first eight F-16 fighter jets from the US next year, does not have the infrastructure or pilots ready to even use them, said Caretaker Military Minister Atanas Zapryanov on Thursday. Read more.

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BUCHAREST

Minimum wage in Romania set to increase. Romania is ready to raise the minimum wage to 4,050 lei (about €800) from 1 January, following President Klaus Iohannis' promulgation of the European minimum wage law on Wednesday, Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu announced on Thursday. Read more.

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ZAGREB

Croatia to purchase Turkish military drones. Croatia will buy lethal drones from Turkey in an 86-million-euro ($91 million) deal, the government said Thursday, just days after a parliamentary committee backed the purchase of US-made rocket systems. Read more.

• EU: Economic and Financial Affairs Council convenes to discuss Union budget for 2025;
• Commission Vice President Vĕra Jourová speaks at the Transatlantic Policy Forum 2024, in Prague, Czechia.

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[Edited by Sarantis Michalopoulos, Daniel Eck, Alice Taylor-Braçe]