| | | | Monday, March 10, 2025 | | 17 days until Opening Day ... | | Two weeks ago in this newsletter, I said, "All I'm hoping for in the first week of Spring Training is for players to stay healthy." And, in the first week of Spring Training, we mostly got what we were hoping for. | | It's been all downhill since, and we might have reached the nadir this weekend, when a slew of significant injuries befelled some Fantasy mainstays. And none were more serious than Gerrit Cole's. | | Cole is dealing with an elbow injury, and Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told reporters he is "prepared for the worst." Cole has apparently received a diagnosis for a torn UCL in his right elbow, per Jim Bowden, and he is going to consult with surgeon Neal elAttrache for a second opinion "soon." That worst-case scenario hasn't been confirmed, but any damage to the UCL is a serious issue, and it's enough to take Cole entirely off draft boards until we know more. | | That's the biggest blow, but it certainly isn't the only one. We also found out this weekend that Mariners ace George Kirby won't be ready for Opening Day due to a shoulder injury. This one doesn't sound serious for now – an MRI showed no structural damage, thankfully – but shoulder injuries can be tricky, and even if Kirby comes back after missing just a week or two of the regular season, it's possible it could linger, with him staying on the mound but as a reduced version of himself. I wrote about that injury over the weekend, with some replacement options for both Cole and Kirby if you've already drafted. | | | | And then there's Grayson Rodriguez , who went from having no concerns after his velocity was down in his most recent outing to requiring a cortisone shot in his elbow this weekend. He is dealing with inflammation and discomfort in the back of his elbow, and while manager Brandon Hyde told reporters it is "not a ligament issue," he has ruled Rodriguez out for Opening Day. Rodriguez will shut down for 7-10 days to hopefully alleviate the discomfort, and then begin throwing again – given he'll likely need a month or so to get back up to speed, I'd say a mid-April return would be something like a best-case scenario here. And there's certainly no guarantee that he'll be the same guy after the injury, so I'm pushing Rodriguez outside of the top 200 in my rankings. | | And, if that all wasn't bad enough, Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez will be out 6-8 weeks after breaking the hamate bone in his left hand. It's an injury that will require surgery, and then likely at least a multi-week stint in the minors to get back up to speed, making an April return possible, but unlikely. He's still worth a late-round flier, especially in leagues with IL spots to play with, but with Alvarez and Sean Murphy both looking likely to miss most if not all of April, the catcher position suddenly feels even more thin. | | That all comes on the heels of news last week that Luis Gil will likely miss three months recovering from a lat injury, and there will surely be more injuries to come between now and Opening Day. This weekend was a good example of why you want to wait as long as you can to draft your Fantasy teams – I'll tell you, it did not feel great to move Kirby out of my Week 1 lineup for Martin Perez in an AL-only league. | | But injuries are a part of life in this game, especially at this time of year. Our job is to make sure you're prepared for whatever is coming by the time you draft, and so in the rest of today's newsletter, we've got the rest of the news and notes you need to know about from Spring Training, and we'll start with some actual good news: | | | | Spring Roundup | | | | Last week, I went through the types of stories I'm looking to learn from during the spring, and that's how we're going to break down the spring news every week. Starting, of course, with injuries: | | Injury Updates | | Marlins manager confirmed that Sandy Alcantara won't have any innings limits – There's been a lot of talk both ways on this one, but when both Alcantara and Marlins manager Clayton McCullough came out this weekend and confirmed there is no plan to limit his innings this season, I'm going to take their word for it. I can't see Alcantara getting to 200 innings in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, and I imagine there will be some times early in the season where he's at 85 or so pitches through five innings and they just decide to pull him. But there's no Garrett Crochet situation coming here – I'm expecting 180 or so innings if Alcantara stays healthy. | | Rafael Devers (shoulder) is scheduled to make his spring debut Tuesday or Wednesday – Devers will likely be the DH there, and there still isn't any clarity on when (or even if) Devers will play third base this spring. At this point, we just want to see him healthy and put the lingering shoulder issues behind him. | | Christian Walker does not have a strained oblique – Walker said it wasn't nearly as bad as the oblique injury that cost Walker more than a month last season, and an MRI confirmed that . The team will obviously take it easy with Walker as he works his way back, and it isn't yet 100% guaranteed he'll be ready for Opening Day – more on the potential fallout from that later – but it doesn't sound like there's much risk of Walker missing significant time with this injury. | | Jurickson Profar has a bone bruise in his wrist – This one was pretty scary when it happened, but Profar dodged a worst-case scenario and is expected to be ready for Opening Day. Of course, if you are inclined to be skeptical of Profar's breakout last season being sustainable, a spring wrist injury could be the excuse you need to push him down your draft board. For me, I think he's been discounted enough that I'll still take him at his price (171 ADP over the past two weeks), even if I am a bit concerned about how this injury might linger. | | | | Brandon Nimmo is also dealing with a knee injury – Nimmo has been slowed early this spring by lingering issues with plantar fasciitis, and now he's taking some time off to manage nagging knee soreness. He got a "gel injection to help lubricate the joint " per manager Carlos Mendoza, and he took the weekend off baseball activities, with the hopes he will be able to resume in the coming days. The hope is he'll be ready for Opening Day, but Nimmo will have to improve enough to appear in Spring Training games – something he hasn't done since Feb. 28, his only appearance to date. I'm pretty worried about the effects of all this. | | Giancarlo Stanton will not be ready for the start of the season – That has seemed obvious for a while, as Stanton had PRP injections in both elbows last week to deal with "severe" injuries in both elbows. Surgery is a possibility if he doesn't improve, and that would end his season before it even began, so they're going to try to manage the injury without it for now. But I'm at the point where I'm not expecting anything from Stanton this season. | | The Orioles aren't sure if Felix Bautista will be on the Opening Day roster – Bautista is working his way back from two elbow surgeries, including Tommy John, and the Orioles are taking it slow. He made his return to game action in the past week, but his velocity was down 4 mph in his first appearance with Statcast data, which is pretty alarming. Bautista still has time to ramp up and be an elite closer again, but I don't think you should draft him with that expectation right now. I wouldn't draft him until the double-digit rounds at this point. | | Adolis Garcia (oblique) is expected to be ready for the start of the season – Garcia, who has been dealing with a mild oblique strain for the past week or so, is already taking batting practice, with the hope of returning to spring games by this weekend. That should give him enough time to get back up to speed for the start of the season. | | Brayan Bello (shoulder) is behind schedule – The Red Sox haven't ruled Bello out, as he continues to work his way back from shoulder soreness. It's not considered a serious issue, but manager Alex Cora has acknowledged that Bello is "behind." That could open a rotation spot for either Quinn Priester or Richard Fitts , both of whom have been pitching with increased velocity this spring and have a bit of late-round sleeper appeal if they get a chance. Bello is a late-round sleeper with some upside if he finds a way to bump his strikeout rate up, but we've also spent three years waiting for more than fleeting glimpses of that upside, so he's hardly a priority for me. | | Luis Rengifo is questionable for Opening Day with a hamstring injury – Rengifo has played in just one game this spring due to an illness and this hamstring injury, back on Feb. 28. So, while the injury doesn't seem especially serious, manager Ron Washington acknowledged this weekend that Rengifo just may not have enough time to get ready . If that's the case, it probably won't be a lengthy absence, but it's frustrating for a guy who had a breakout 2024 campaign derailed due to a wrist injury. | | Jordan Walker is dealing with knee inflammation – Talk about bad luck – Walker jammed his knee when he stepped on an exposed sprinkler head in the outfield during a recent game. An MRI revealed no structural damage, and he's working his way back and could return to game action this week. Walker reworked his swing this offseason to generate more loft, and he still has plenty of sleeper appeal as he enters his age-23 season. | | DJ LeMahieu will not be ready for the start of the regular season with a calf strain – LeMahieu had a chance to be the team's starting third baseman, potentially with a valuable spot in the top half of the lineup. But he suffered an injury in his spring debut, which will keep him out at least a couple of weeks – and given his bad luck lately, I don't think it makes much sense to take a particularly optimistic view on his timeline. He's barely worth a late-round flier in deeper leagues. | | Wilyer Abreu isn't likely to be ready for the start of the season due to an illness – It's not clear what the nature of the issue is for Abreu, but he hasn't even been cleared to begin swinging at live pitching yet. With less than three weeks to go before Opening Day, it's hard to see how Abreu could have time to be ready. Jarren Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela seem locked into two of the three outfield spots, but this could leave the door cracked open for top prospect Roman Anthony , who remains worth a late-round flier until the Red Sox rule him out. | | Parker Meadows (arm) and Matt Vierling (shoulder) have both begun light baseball activities – Meadows could still have a chance to be ready for Opening Day, but the nature of his injury – a nerve issue in his arm – makes his timeline significantly less certain in both directions. If it heals quickly, he could be back out there soon, while Vierling won't be ready for Opening Day from his rotator cuff strain either way, it appears. | | Lineup News/Position Battles | | Matt Shaw is fighting to be the last man on the roster – An oblique injury early in camp delayed Shaw's debut, leaving him with fewer opportunities to prove himself ahead of the Cubs ' trip to open the season in Japan next week. According to The Athletic, the team hasn't decided whether Shaw will travel for that two-game series, but adds, "the organization's evaluation of Shaw, however, has not changed. The Cubs want him to win this competition, and they expect he will be an everyday player at Wrigley Field this year and beyond." He's hoping to be the team's starting third baseman, but even if he's not on the travel roster for Japan, I wouldn't really move Shaw down in my rankings. It could be as simple as delaying his debut to get him more Spring Training ABs, so I still consider him an excellent late-round sleeper. | | Tomoyuki Sugano looked very good in his spring start Sunday – With Rodriguez's injury, Sugano is certainly locked into a rotation spot for the Orioles, and while his stuff won't blow you away, Sugano has looked like he belongs so far this spring, with seven strikeouts in seven innings, including five in three innings against the Twins Sunday. The veteran from Japan has a deep arsenal and elite command and could do a decent Seth Lugo impersonation at a discount. | | Gavin Lux has played only 3B and 2B this spring – There was some talk that Lux would be a jack-of-all-trades type for the Reds , but he has stayed in the infield so far. At this point, I expect Lux to open the season as the starting third baseman, with the occasional appearance at 2B and DH, and with the gains he made in the second half of last season, he could be a viable starter if he's playing every day for the Reds. | | Bo Bichette will hit either 1st or 4th in the Jays lineup – We'd prefer Bichette to hit leadoff, for the 70 or so extra PA he would get over the course of the season. But either way, he's going to be in a prime spot, either right before or right after Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Anthony Santander. He remains a value anytime he makes it to pick 100. | | Velocity Readings | | Jacob deGrom is intentionally throwing less hard – deGrom sat around 97 mph in his spring debut, and he told reporters after the start he views it as "pitching smarter ." He didn't specifically say he's holding velocity back to preserve his health, and the question for me is whether he's still capable of hitting 101 and is just intentionally dialing back, which would theoretically put less stress on the muscles and ligaments in his arm that have struggled to stay healthy over the past four seasons. I'm not moving deGrom up or down my rankings as a result of this, but it's interesting to hear him talking about not chasing velocity like he has in the past. I hope it works out! | | Kevin Gausman is throwing harder, but he's also seeing significantly less drop on his splitter – I'm not sure that's a good tradeoff, though I'll admit, I'm not 100% sure. Eno Sarris' Stuff+ model loves what Gausman has shown this spring, and when I asked specifically about getting less drop with the splitter, Sarris said, " Harder with less drop could be fine." But he also noted that the improvement in Gausman's Stuff+ rating comes from improvements with the fastball, not the splitter, and given how important that pitch has been to Gausman's success, I'm a little worried. I still think Gausman is a decent dice roll in the 150 range of drafts, but it's not the slam dunk I thought when I initially saw that his velocity was back to 2023 levels. | | Reynaldo Lopez is down 2.5 mph with his fastball this spring – Lopez wasn't concerned about averaging just 93 mph with his four-seamer in this one, and I'm not overly concerned yet. But I also don't think he has an especially wide margin for error, and I'm generally avoiding him coming off last year's breakout, so it's something to keep an eye on for the rest of spring. | | Cristopher Sanchez is consistently sitting 2-3 mph up from last year – Sanchez averaged 97 mph with his sinker in his most recent outing, up 2.5 mph from last year. The key thing to watch here will be the command – he took a big step forward in 2023 when he improved his command, so increased velocity with increased walks wouldn't be the tradeoff we're looking for. With just one walk (to 12 strikeouts) through 7.2 innings this spring, that hasn't been an issue. He might just be underrated. | | Mike Soroka's velocity is up this spring by about 1-1.5 mph – It's no guarantee of anything, but it would be hard for Soroka's return to the rotation to have gone better than it has in a very small sample, as he has one run allowed in his first seven innings this spring, with nine strikeouts to one walk. He's still primarily a sleeper for H2H points leagues with his SPaRP eligibility, but I'm starting to be interested in 15-team Roto leagues, too. | | Jack Leiter is throwing a sinker and changeup, and his fastball velocity is up 1.6 mph – Leiter is expanding his arsenal and also experiencing a velocity bump, a very intriguing combination. Now, obviously, if you remember his time in the majors last season, you know that stuff wasn't the issue here as much as command was, so still has a lot to prove in that regard. But only one walk in eight innings is a promising sign, too. Leiter has plenty of upside if he can consistently throw strikes, and while it doesn't look like he has a rotation spot waiting for him, he'll certainly be worth a look if one opens up. | | New Pitches | | Gavin Williams has his old slider back and has seemingly ditched his cutter – Williams largely eschewed his slider last season, after it was his second-most used pitch in 2023, relying instead on a cutter that was fine, but less effective than the slider had been. Anecdotally, I chalked this up to the elbow injury that limited him early in the season, and so far this spring, he's back to the mid-80s version of his slider from 2023. With elite extension on a high-90s fastball, Williams has serious upside if his secondaries can be consistent weapons for him. I'm starting to buy into Williams as a bounceback candidate. | | Freddy Peralta fixed a mechanical problem with his delivery and is back on the right side of the mound – It's not really a "new pitch," but it doesn't fit anywhere else, so just roll with it. Peralta moved from the third-base side of the pitching rubber to the first-base side during the 2024 season, because he was having trouble mechanically that was impacting his ability to throw his fastball to righties. His fastball and sweeper were both less effective to righties in 2024, and he was generating less extension with his delivery, so getting back to his previous mechanics could help Peralta bounce back from an underwhelming season. | | Jose Soriano's slider could be much improved in 2025 – Soriano is throwing the pitch about three mph lower than last season's, with more consistent drop, and it's something to keep an eye on. His sinker/curveball combo has been excellent but has led to some severe reverse split issues, so an additional weapon to get righties out could be huge. Soriano has real sleeper appeal even before this. | | Clay Holmes ' changeup could be really, really good – Holmes struck out eight over 3.2 innings Sunday, and is up to 13 in 9.2 innings in the spring, with four walks and two hits allowed. He's pitched three times this spring with Statcast data, so we've got a good amount of data, and the early returns on the changeup are quite impressive – 15 swings on 27 pitches, with eight swings and misses. It's still a small sample, but if that pitch can help neutralize lefties, Holmes could be a very good starting pitcher. I'm making him a priority target around 250 in most drafts, and I'm willing to go earlier if needed. | | Bailey Ober is throwing a sinker and sweeper now, but his velocity is down a tick – Ober had real reverse split issues in 2024, posting an OPS more than 100 points worse against right-handed batters, so a sweeper and sinker would seem to help. And, because he gets so far down the mound with his release, in theory, a velocity drop may not matter as much for him, especially this early in spring. | | Dylan Cease is actually throwing a real changeup – I say a "real" changeup, because I've never considered the high-60s version Cease would occasionally throw last season a real pitch – it was a novelty, like an eephus, designed to catch hitters off guard, not a real weapon. But in his start last week, Cease threw seven changeups with an average velocity of 82.5 mph – still nearly 15 mph lower than his fastball, but hard enough that he doesn't have to totally change his arm speed to throw it like he did his old one. Who knows how often he'll throw it in real games, but it's nice to see him looking for another weapon. | | Prospects Gaining Hype | | Jackson Jobe looks really good and still isn't getting whiffs and strikeouts this spring – I can't figure it out. He sat at 97.9 mph with his four-seamer with good shape and twirled a bunch of killer-looking cutters while micing in his new curveball and a changeup to give him a legitimate five-pitch mix, all of which look like they could be plus pitches. And he somehow generated just four whiffs on 50 pitches Saturday against the Blue Jays, giving him just five strikeouts in 8.2 innings of work. He looks the part, but his strikeout rate was lower than you would think in the minors last year, too. I still love the breakout potential here, but I would like to see more concrete examples of the upside. | | Shane Smith struck out Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith in a row Saturday – Yeah, that'll put you on my radar. The White Sox actually have a few interesting young pitchers in camp right now, and Smith is coming off a season where he had a 3.05 ERA with 113 strikeouts and 29 walks in 94.1 innings at Double-A and Triple-A before being picked by the White Sox in the Rule 5 draft, which means he'll have to be on the roster to open the season or else they'll have to give him back to the Brewers. Smith could be pitching his way into the rotation mix, and there's some strikeout upside here. | | Alan Roden is having a good spring and could be in the mix for the Blue Jays this spring – Roden, who I just learned studied physics – "Specifically, I studied Quasars" he told SportsNet in a recent feature worth reading – at Creighton University, is making a name for himself at camp for the Blue Jays and could have a chance to make the team as an outfielder. He made it to Triple-A as a 24-year-old last year, hitting .314/.406/.510 with almost as many walks (35) as strikeouts (41), and he could bring double-digit speed to the table. He's a name worth knowing in deeper leagues. | | Cam Smith could make the Astros Opening Day roster – It might depend on Walker's status, though one thing I will point out is that the Astros' roster has seemed a player short for most of the offseason – whether at second base or one of the corner outfield spots, it felt like there was a real hole here for a team that still wants to contend. We said something similar about the Padres last year before it became clear that we weren't accounting for Jackson Merrill's emergence, and a similar thing could be happening here. We've heard both right field and third base – Smith's natural position – as potential options for Smith, who was the biggest prospect the Astros got back for Kyle Tucker . The No. 14 pick in last year's draft, Smith has played just 32 games as a professional, but is apparently advanced enough that the team is open to it – and the fact that he is 8 for 13 with five walks and two strikeouts in his first ever Spring Training isn't hurting his chances. He belongs on the late-round radar in all leagues. | | Chase Burns' stuff looks absolutely absurd – Burns doesn't have a chance to crack the Opening Day rotation, it would seem, but the No. 2 pick in last year's draft could follow in Rhett Lowder's footsteps by making his pro debut a year after being drafted. Burns made his spring debut last week against the Rangers and averaged 99.6 mph with his four-seamer along with a slider that looks ludicrously dominant. He could force his way to the majors by this summer, and he could be a dominant force. | | | | | | | | Golazo Network | | 24/7 Sports News | Watch LIVE global soccer coverage on the CBS Sports Golazo Network, available FOR FREE on the CBS Sports App, Pluto TV and streaming on Paramount+.
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