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Situational awareness - January 2, 2018

 Happy new year!

Will he or won't he? That's the big political question of the week: Will Sen. Orrin Hatch reveal he's retiring, or seeking re-election? An announcement could come at any time.

While conventional wisdom says Hatch, with the encouragement of Pres. Trump, will run again, our sources are saying Hatch will retire but it's a close call. That's especially so because Hatch might run again just to spite the Hatch/Trump haters (like the Tribune editorial board that charged him with "utter lack of integrity", complete with a ghoulish image of him). If he runs, he probably wins. That would be sweet revenge.

But he's had an amazing run as a U.S. senator, and it's time to retire. And he needs to announce his plans ASAP. He's left a lot of Republicans cooling their heels for too long. All signs point to Mitt Romney immediately gearing up a campaign to replace Hatch.

Meanwhile, assuming you survived the supermoon (or wolf moon) it's back to work for Utahns after a long holiday weekend and a lot of vacation time for many. The fun is over and a big political year is ahead. Here's our Tuesday rundown:

Tick Tock:

• Today is the day candidates can begin to declare their intent to gather signatures for the 2018 election (1/2/2018)
• 20 days until the opening day of the 2018 Utah Legislature (1/22/2018)
• 65 days until the final day of the 2018 Utah Legislature (3/8/2018)
• 66 days until the filing period for candidates in the 2018 election opens (3/9/2018)
• 72 days until the filing deadline for the 2018 elections (3/15/2018)
• 77 days until the statewide caucus meetings for Utah Republicans and Democrats (3/20/2018)
• 109 days until the Utah GOP State Convention (4/21/2018)
• 116 days until the Utah Democratic State Convention (4/28/2018)
• 175 days until the 2018 Primary Election (6/26/2018)
• 308 days until the 2018 midterm elections (11/6/2018)
• 1,036 days until the 2020 presidential election (11/3/2020)

Utah highlights

• UtahPolicy.com poll shows that ideology drives Utahns' opinions on possible war with North Korea. Democrats think war is likely; Republicans don't expect war.
• Bryan Schott notes that while Utah waits for Hatch's decision, a website for Hatch Foundation goes live (Utah Policy).
• LaVarr Webb asks: If UTA gets state money, is a major governance change required? (Utah Policy).
• Deseret News editorial board highlights three on-going stories to watch in 2018: homelessness, rapid growth at the Point of the Mountain, and lack of civility.
• The Salt Lake Chamber is kicking off a campaign to modernize Utah's tax code (Utah Policy).
• Keep monitoring our Candidate Trackers (Congressional races), (Utah Senate), (Utah House) to see who's running for what.

National/international highlights

• Optimistic businesses considering new investments and hiring as Trump relaxes regulations (NY Times).
• California begins the nation's biggest experiment with recreational marijuana (KSL/Associated Press).
• Congress will return to a full slate of thorny issues, including DACA and CHIP (Washington Post).
• Presidential wannabes: Elizabeth Warren positions herself for a potential 2020 run (Politico). No-name congressmen, mayors and other longshots are saying, 'If Trump can do it, why not me?' (Politico).
• International: Iran anti-government protests rage on despite fears of harsher response (Washington Post).  North Korean dictator says he has 'nuclear button' but won't use it unless threatened (Washington Post).

On this day in history

• 1776: Congress publishes the Tory Act describing how colonies should handle British loyalists.
• 1974: Pres. Richard Nixon signs national speed limit into law.
• 1981: British policy catch Yorkshire Ripper serial killer.
• 1980 Dtente with Russia ends as Pres. Jimmy Carter reacts to Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

Today At Utah Policy

While Utah waits for Hatch's decision, website for Hatch Foundation goes live By Bryan Schott, Managing Editor As the political world waits with bated breath for Sen. Orrin Hatch to make up his mind about whether he'll run for an eighth term in 2018, a webpage for the Orrin G. Hatch foundation has popped up online. ...

'Political Insiders' pick the top Utah political stories of 2017 By Bryan Schott, Managing Editor 2017 was quite an eventful year in Utah politics. Here's what our "Political Insiders" and readers voted as the top-10 political news stories from the past year....

2018 Utah candidate tracker - Congress By Bryan Schott, Managing Editor There's a U.S. Senate seat up for election in 2018 as well as all four U.S. House seats. Here's our list of rumored and declared candidates....

2018 Utah candidate tracker - Utah Senate By Bryan Schott, Managing Editor 2018 means another election cycle is upon us. Half of the Utah Senate seats are up for election this year, including an unexpected one because of a retirement. Here's our running list of candidates for those seats....

2018 Utah candidate tracker - Utah House By Bryan Schott, Managing Editor Next week candidates can start gathering signatures to get on the 2018 ballot. All 75 Utah House seats are up for election this year. Here's our running list of who's in, who's out and who's challenging....

Policy News

Should state money for UTA require governance change?  Key Utah leaders are suggesting what not long ago was unthinkable use state money for public transit.That is a significant, and welcome, change of attitude. To this point, public transit has been mostly funded by local sales taxes, fare revenue and federal grants. The...

The time is now for tax modernization in Utah The Salt Lake Chamber has unveiled its new campaign calling for the modernization of Utah's tax code. The Chamber believes modernizing Utah's tax code is the most critical issue facing the Legislature and must be addressed this session.Why? Because Utah's economy has changed...

Wise Words

Still True

"A President needs political understanding to run the government, but he may be elected without it." Harry S Truman

Lighter Side

Majority

"I read that a majority of Americans would end up paying more in taxes by the year 2027. Trump said its payback for the majority of Americans who voted for Hillary Clinton." Jimmy Fallon