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| Tuesday, July 30, 2024 |
| It's Giants Day! It's also my 30th birthday! |
| If you wanna show me some love on my birthday, take to the Twitter streets (real life word of mouth works too!) and share the good news of the FFT Newsletter with any degenerates that you know! |
| Before diving into Fantasy analysis for each team, I'll present a brief overview containing their offensive ranks in my base line team projections as well as any notable coaching or offensive line changes. |
| Projected Offensive Plays – (23rd) |
| Projected Passing TDs – 19.2 (32nd) |
| Projected Rushing TDs – 20.0 (10th) |
| Notable coaching changes: |
| Hired Shane Bowen as defensive coordinatorHired Carmen Bricillo as offensive line coachHired Joel Thomas as running backs coach |
| A change at defensive coordinator was needed. Bowen will replace Wink Martindale and take over control of a defense that has a ton of talent. I'll let my editor Dan Schneier handle any additional Giants coaching staff analysis, as that's clearly in his wheelhouse more than mine. It's my birthday, I'm chilling. |
| The one thing that I will add is that Joel Thomas spent the previous nine seasons as the New Orleans Saints running backs coach. I'm excited about the experience that he brings working with Alvin Kamara and what that might mean for receiving back prospect Tyrone Tracy Jr. |
| Notable offensive line changes |
| Signed veteran guards Aaron Stinnie and Jon Runyan Signed veteran right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor |
| New York was intentional in adding depth to the offensive line after a disastrous season that saw nine different linemen play significant snaps due to various injuries. The Giants have invested draft capital into the line in recent years, but so far, there has been little return. Round 2 center selection John Michael Schmitz Jr. struggled mightily as a rookie, and tackle Evan Neal was even worse. The Giants selected Neal seventh overall in 2022, and thus far he has turned in PFF grades of 44.1 and 39.8 in two partial seasons. |
| At least 2020's Round 1 selection has panned out. Left tackle Andrews Thomas is one of the NFL's best pass-blocking tackles. If the rest of the young talent on this roster rises under new OC coach Carmen Bricillo's direction, this could actually be a strong unit. My guess is that it will be a middle-of-the-pack offensive line, which still presents a huge upgrade from what the Giants got in 2023. |
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| I believe in this coaching staff |
| Given the tumultuous state of the QB position, the Giants have honestly overachieved in back-to-back seasons under Brian Daboll. Last season felt like such a train wreck at times, and yet Daboll was able to win six games and engineer offense that occasionally worked with Tommy Devito facilitating the passing game. |
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| Daboll has been coaching since 1997. He's seen a lot, and we're seeing him adapt as he goes along. His use of pre-snap motion was higher in 2023 than it has ever been, and that's a trend that has been slowly building momentum with each passing year. Daboll also has been increasing his pace of play as his coaching career progresses. In 2023, the Giants ranked fifth in situation-neutral (score within six points) pace of play. This is an exciting note for Fantasy purposes, as it may lead to a larger than expected number of total plays if the Giants are able to convert first downs and keep the chains moving. |
| Can Daniel Jones keep the chains moving? |
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| My belief in Daboll and what we saw this offense do in 2022 has me more ready than the general consensus seems to be to perceive a possibility that the Giants might move the chains in 2024. Daboll's offenses have been very effective at doing just that. Under Daboll, the Bills posted the second-lowest three-and-out rate (24.4%) across the 2020-21 seasons. In the two seasons since, that rate has been 27.6% (still significantly better than the league-average of 31.8%. Josh Allen is good.) |
| The Giants had a 32.6% rate in the two years prior to Daboll's arrival, which immediately improved to the league's sixth-best mark (27.9%) in Daboll's first season. Across his first three seasons, Jones never posted a passing success rate above 43%. While he created some big plays early in his career, Jones was very inconsistent on a play-to-play basis. Daboll has cleaned that up a bit. His success rate with Daboll is 43.2%, not too far removed from the league average (45%). For reference, Kyler Murray (43.8%) and Aaron Rodgers (44.8%) fall in the same vicinity. |
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| I think that this offense might be able to move the chains. The offensive line could be much better. Malik Nabers presents a real answer that Jones has lacked. Easy plays have often been hard to come by in this offense outside of Saquon Barkley. His loss will certainly be felt, but Barkley himself was far from consistent. Between a variety of injuries and his own propensity to hunt big plays, Barkley has been one of the league's least consistent rushers. Barkley's rushing success rate has been below the New York Giants backfield average in three of the past five seasons. Relative to his own teammates, Barkley has not even been an improvement when it comes to converting successful plays and creating first downs. Barkley's first down per rush rate (19.8%) is lower than the Giants backfield average over the past five seasons. |
| It feels like I'm just piling on Barkley at this point, but it's worth noting that he also hasn't been as effective at creating big plays as he used to. In fact, he's been one of the least effective running backs recently. |
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| All of this is to say that maybe an electric talent like Nabers might present an upgrade as the new offensive engine. |
| Realistic expectations for Malik Nabers' rookie campaign |
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| The training camp buzz surrounding Nabers has predictably reached a fervor as we approach the month of August. Real-life football is so close, and Nabers is near the very top of the list of the most-exciting players who we will get to see tested at the NFL level for the first time. |
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| The hype around Nabers is warranted. He's one of the most explosive players we've seen enter the NFL recently. His ability to track deep passes and accelerate away from defenders to make downfield catches is unfair and unmatched among the receivers I have evaluated from the past three draft classes. His ability to make would-be tacklers miss and create yardage after the catch also feels unfair at times. |
| With that said, I have two buckets of cold water to pour on the steaming-hot hype train engine before we proceed with inevitable derailing that will follow Nabers' vibrant creativity and otherworldly movement being on full display during preseason action. |
| 1. Matt Harmon placed Rome Odunze well above Nabers as the WR2 in this class. |
| If you are unfamiliar with Matt's work on ReceptionPerception.com, I would suggest that you remedy that. Displayed below, you'll find where Nabers sits in Matt's pre-draft rookie WR evaluations ranked from 2021-23: |
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| That is a tier of really good receivers, no doubt. But it's not exactly the placement that the hype around Nabers might imply. There have been Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase comparisons thrown around in reference to Nabers. It's at least noteworthy to see where Harmon places Nabers, given that level of praise from the public. |
| 2. Nabers was sort of reliant on slot opportunities to avoid press coverage at the line of scrimmage |
| I was surprised how poorly Nabers performed against press coverage. The tweet below is hyper-specific, as it only includes routes run against press coverage while operating as the offense's "X" receiver (you can learn more about that here), but Nabers has been the least productive in those situations among recent Round 1 rookie receivers: |
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| For his career, Nabers has been notably less productive when pressed, regardless of alignment at the "X" or in the slot. That may be a red flag, but it's worth mentioning that Justin Jefferson also was less productive when pressed at the collegiate level and we've seen him ascend to un-pressable status as a pro. |
| Don't make too much of these notes. I bring them up because I found them and feel a responsibility to share them, not because I have any interest in proving that Nabers is not capable of being a true number one receiver at the NFL level. Ideally, a WR touted as a transcendent talent will present us with a truly bullet-proof profile. That's what Marvin Harrison Jr. gave us. I'm nitpicking the Nabers profile for the purpose of doing just that, because there are nits to pick. There are only a couple, though, and they may prove to be non-issues at the NFL level as he continues to grow and improve as a player. |
| The actual important cold water that I have to throw on Nabers rookie season hype is that he does not stand out in my 2024 projections. His median projection is super solid, especially for a rookie, but I have a difficult time investing an early-round pick into Nabers because of his ceiling projection. The Giants are 26th in projected passing yards and dead last in projected passing touchdowns. I have a very difficult time projecting a scenario in which Nabers produces 275+ PPR points. Eight receivers hit that mark in 2023, Puka Nacua finished with 298, for reference. Really, I want any receiver that I am using a Round 2-3 pick on to be able to potentially tap into 300+ point upside. I have to project Nabers for a 29% target share to get him to 275 PPR points. A 30% target share only yields 282 PPR points in my projections. Only seven receivers have turned in a 30% target share at the age of 24 or younger, with the youngest from that group being 23. Nabers just turned 21. |
| There have only been seven receivers ever to post a target share above 20% at the age of 21 -- Drake London (29%), Justin Jefferson (26%), Ja'Marr Chase (24%), Mike Evans (24%), Sammy Watkins (22%), Larry Fitzgerald (22%), and Amari Cooper (22%). Chase (305 PPR points) and Jefferson (274) were the only two to top 250 PPR points. Chase scored 13 touchdowns, which feels almost absolutely inaccessible to Nabers as a member of this Giants offense. Jefferson only scored seven. He's the prototype, if you want to believe that Nabers can provide value at his current ADP. I have Nabers projected for a 26.5% target share, which results in a median projection of 254 PPR points. There's upside for more than that, but it's worth keeping in mind just how unprecedented it would be for him to push his target share into the upper 20's or even to 30 percent. |
| On CBS, Nabers is drafted 58th overall on average. I absolutely love that price and often land Nabers when drafting with my CBS colleagues. Other ADP shows Nabers pushing into the top-30. I'm fine with drafting Nabers ahead of some really good players -- Mike Evans, Cooper Kupp, DJ Moore, Michael Pittman, to name a few. I think you can even justify selecting him ahead of DK Metcalf, DeVonta Smith, and Davante Adams if you feel convicted that he is a Ja'Marr Chase type of talent. Where it becomes a clear no-go for me is Nabers creeping into the Jaylen Waddle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel range. There's just too much upside available in those offenses to pass on already-proven elite players for the rookie. I am scooping up as much Nabers as I can now, my guess is that his price is only going to rise over the next month. |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. is my favorite late-round sleeper |
| Tracy was the first player who Dan and I wanted to highlight on this summer's Beyond the Boxscore Rookie Gems episode. Last year's rookie gems show highlighted Jayden Reed and Puka Nacua, and Tracy would be my pick of this year's rookie class to seemingly come out of nowhere and be a highly-relevant PPR asset. |
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| Tracy's role will likely be limited as he adapts to the speed of the NFL, but he has a chance to play a significant role as a passing game weapon for this team and does have the size to potentially be more than that. I've been grabbing him everywhere I can as a late-round bench stash. |
| Daniel Jones is a sneaky high-upside Fantasy pick |
| There have been two tangible ways in which Daboll has changed Jones' game. The first is that Jones has notably shortened his average depth of target from 7.7 yards in his first three seasons to 6.5 under Daboll. This has raised his completion percentage and may give the offense a better chance at sustaining drives. The second change is the more meaningful one for Fantasy purposes. Jones has been empowered to use his legs to move the chains by the coach who served as the OC as Josh Allen made his renaissance as a sack-avoider and premier scrambler. Allen was a good-but-not-great scrambler and a below average pocket navigator at the collegiate level, but he transformed himself as a pro. Jones has shown no such signs of transformation, but he has drastically increased his rushing rate. We'll take what we can get, and this is an important change for Fantasy. QB rushing is a Fantasy cheat code. |
| Daniel Jones scramble rate |
5.0% -- 2019-21
9.7% -- 2022-23 |
| Daniel Jones designed rush rate |
6.7% -- 2019-21
10.4% -- 2022-23 |
| Check out how pronounced his rushing splits are when in the red zone: |
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| Now in his third season in Daboll's system, set to go to work with the best pass-catching weapon he's ever had, Jones feels like a potential Fantasy breakout. If playing in formats that use multiple quarterbacks, or if simply looking for a late-round best ball pick to help finish off a cheap QB build, Jones makes a lot of sense. There is upside. If New York's offense is improved, Jones will likely be the one capping off drives in the red zone. Devin Singletary has been one of the league's least effective short-yardage rushers. |
| I'll be back in your inbox every weekday with a new team preview during the month of July and into the first week of August! Wednesday, we will be covering the Dallas Cowboys. If you have any feedback on the team-by-team previews or any questions about the upcoming teams, feel free to send them my way. |
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