What's Happening

Economy

Will We or Won’t We? Recession Questions Swirl

What's going on: Amid tariff whiplash and widespread federal layoffs, many analysts are questioning whether the US will fall into a recession this year. President Donald Trump isn’t ruling it out. In an interview with Fox News yesterday, he said, “I hate to predict things like that,” but described any downturn as a“period of transition,” adding that his policies are “bringing wealth back to America.” Trump’s comments represent a shift from his previous messaging — particularly on the campaign trail — about delivering swift economic results. Meanwhile, the president’s commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, has a different take. On NBC’s Meet the Press, Lutnick said, “There’s going to be no recession in America,” and predicted that grocery prices will begin dropping as early as April.

What it means: After years of blaming record inflation on his predecessor, Trump is now asking Americans to be patient — even if their wallets take a hit. Economists say recent market trends suggest a higher chance of a recession than just a few weeks ago. It comes as consumer sentiment is at a 15-month low, and unemployment ticked up to 4.1% last month. The US would officially enter recession territory if the economy shrinks for two consecutive quarters, which is why many are waiting for the US’s GDP report later this month (and why the Trump administration might be looking to omit some data). Still, forecasting a recession is tricky — many experts predicted one under former President Joe Biden, but it never came.

Related: How to Stop Buying Things You Don’t Need (NYT Gift Link)

International

Oh Canada, Meet the Next Prime Minister

What's going on: Canada is expected to swear in Mark Carney, a former central banker and economist, as prime minister this week. Yesterday, Carney won the Liberal Party’s leadership election to replace Justin Trudeau. Reminder: In January, Trudeau announced that he would step down as prime minister after nearly a decade,citing internal party battles. Carney will take the PM role at a high-stakes moment with the US. President Donald Trump is ramping up economic pressure with new tariffs on Canadian imports and continuing his criticism of the country (referring to it as America’s “51st state”).

What it means: Carney has some big decisions ahead — like how to handle Trump’s trade threats. He’ll also have to consider whether to call an early federal election before the mandatory October deadline — a decision that’ll likely hinge on how well he handles discussions with Canada’s southern neighbor and whether he can convince Canadians he’s the right leader. While Carney has spent years advising governments on economic policy, he’s never held elected office. Still, he struck a defiant tone in his victory speech, saying, “We didn’t ask for this fight,” and adding, “In trade, as in hockey, Canada will win.”

Related: No Bourbon, No Napa, No Problem? Canada’s Trade War Clapback Hits the Bar (NYT Gift Link)

Health

The Industry Is Failing OB-GYNs — and Menopausal Women Are Paying the Price

What's going on: Imagine going to your OB-GYN, describing your symptoms, and looking for answers — only to be met with a blank stare. You know it’s menopause, but they aren’t as convinced. Turns out, it’s not just you — many doctors simply aren’t trained for this. More than one in five OB-GYN residents receive zero menopause lectures during residency. That’s right, zero. And according to a 2019 Mayo Clinic survey, only about 7% feel adequately prepared to manage it. Even when menopause education is offered in medical school, it’s often tacked onto broader courses, barely scratching the surface.

What it means: As millennials — now the largest generation of US women — enter menopause, the industry’s neglect has fueled a new wave of alternative solutions. Celebrities are launching telehealth companies with the rallying cry that “women deserve better.” Influencers are pushing products that may or may not be backed by science. Meanwhile, some medical programs are finally stepping up, adding menopause education — so, as one doctor at the Mayo Clinic put it, “women don’t have to suffer.” One small step for womankind.

Related: Wyoming Just Issued a New Mandate for Pill Abortions (The Hill)