As Georgians face an unclear European path, Brussels is facing a wind of change and tough choices in its near neighbourhood. Following Saturday's parliamentary elections, the ruling Georgian Dream party scored a landslide win against the four pro-Western opposition groups, putting the country at a crossroads. Georgia's opposition forces must now choose between direct contestation of the vote and confrontation, likely to lead to a new wave of mass protests as seen earlier this year, or accepting the defeat and risking disbandment. Pro-Western President Salome Zourabichvili, who was heavily involved in consolidating the fractured opposition ahead of the polls and calling out Georgian Dream's state capture, could potentially face impeachment, some observers say. Many of those who spoke to Euractiv in Tbilisi over the past days believe the vote and the political uncertainty that now follows will derail the country’s pro-Western course. "It’s critical for the EU to reinforce that a commitment to democratic processes is a pathway to deeper integration, keeping Georgia's European aspirations alive even in a polarised context," Ketevan Chachava, a fellow at the Democratic Resilience Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told Euractiv in Tbilisi. In the event of widespread irregularities or refusal to accept the vote, the EU should advocate for transparency and accountability and "consider adjusting its engagement strategy," Chachava said. "This should include balancing diplomatic pressure with a commitment to the European aspirations of the Georgian people, especially considering that over 85% support EU membership," she said. EU leaders earlier this month warned the ruling Georgian Dream government 'not to reverse' its current pro-European course and ensure Saturday's polls are free and fair. With widespread allegations of voter intimidation and violence, it will be hard to argue they were. In response to a series of Russia-style laws, the EU had drawn up a range of measures, including sanctions on top government officials, cutting financial assistance, and restricting visa-free travel for Georgian citizens, which it could take in response. However, EU officials and diplomats said then that Brussels was hesitant to move forward with any of them before the October elections because it would risk being accused of election interference. Several EU diplomats, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Euractiv that they would be willing to use some of those measures should Georgia's ruling party decide to crack down on protest and civil society after the elections. "A tight [or contested] outcome is also likely to test the strength of the EU accession pull factor as such," Chachava told Euractiv. Brussels might face an even bigger headache soon, as Moldova last week and Georgia this week, though in different ways, have rung alarm bells in EU corridors. The European Commission is expected to present its so-called enlargement package, an annual assessment of exactly how far EU candidate countries and hopefuls have moved in aligning themselves with the bloc's rules and values. It was deliberately moved until after both polls to avoid being instrumentalised, people familiar with the matter told Euractiv earlier this month. However, it is yet unclear whether and how much it will reflect the changed realities in both countries. Touring the six Western Balkan hopefuls this week, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen pledged that enlargement would be high on her new term's agenda. Like her, incoming European Council chief Antonio Costa has how to prepare both the bloc and future members for accession D-Day, high on his to-do list. However, the more significant task could increasingly be learning how not to lose those countries. |