Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics raise alarm in Europe With Moscow’s hybrid warfare tactics in northeast Europe increasing over the past week, several EU member states have started stepping up their deterrence options towards Russia. Russia’s push to change the Baltic Sea border on Wednesday (22 May), with a mysteriously deleted Russian defence ministry document on allegedly planned changes to territorial waters, sparked concern in the region and put Baltic and Nordic states on alert. In another incident, this time with Estonia, Russian border guards on Thursday (23 May) staged an operation on the Narva River and removed 24 out of 50 buoys marking the border that are used by ships to navigate the waters without crossing into foreign territory, Estonian officials said. EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell on Friday (24 May) demanded Moscow explain its unilateral demarcation. “This border incident is part of a broader pattern of provocative behaviour and hybrid actions by Russia, including on its maritime and land borders in the Baltic Sea region – such actions are unacceptable,” he said in a statement. NATO earlier this month issued a sharp warning over “hostile” Russian activity across Europe after cyberattacks carried out by a Russian cyber espionage group were discovered to have hit a series of countries, including Czechia, Estonia, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and the UK. It then pointed to the possibility of acts of “disinformation, sabotage, acts of violence, cyber and electronic interference (…) and other hybrid operations.” Nordic and Baltic countries have repeatedly warned that Russia has intentionally jammed their GPS navigation systems, causing significant disruption to flights and shipping in the region. Likewise, Eastern European countries over the past two years have said that Russia, together with Belarus, instrumentalising and sending migrants across their border was a form of hybrid attack. EU diplomats and European defence officials believe that the next few weeks could see more such hybrid actions and that the current cases would be only the tip of the iceberg. “These incidents over past few days – they are Russian provocations, full stop,” an EU senior official said. “Don’t doubt for a second these are Russian provocations to test our resolve and see what will be the reaction [will be],” they added. For some EU member states, especially those geographically closer to the Russian border, the lack of response could become a long-term problem with deterrence. “So far, we’ve not been very alarmist about those incidents – we are ‘deeply concerned’, condemn them and move on – but at some point, we need to react,” one EU diplomat told Euractiv. “If we don’t show some resolve to fight this, this will only go further and further,” they added. The Baltic News Agency reported that several European countries—the Baltics, Poland, Finland, and Norway—agreed on Saturday (25 May) to create a “drone wall” to protect their external borders using unarmed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). UAVs would be used to monitor border areas, as well as anti-drone systems to stop hostile drones being used for smuggling or other provocations, they said. Regional officials say it would be a test for further future measures, which would require drills and regular training of involved defence and border forces. Eastern European officials hope the issue will be discussed at several crucial NATO meetings in the next two months, including a summit in Washington in July that is likely to address Europe’s air defence capabilities. | 
