Ukraine, Middle East, UN reform
in focus at UNGA79 Every September, New York buzzes with activity for a week, with world leaders meeting for the annual high-level United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). This year, with wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and Sudan, UN reform, pandemic prevention, and sustainable development are on the agenda. Here is what we will be watching: SUMMIT FOR THE FUTURE | A two-day Summit of the Future is starting today (22 September), preceding the regular high-level week. UN member states are negotiating three documents they hope to adopt this Sunday evening: a Pact for the Future, a Declaration on Future Generations and a Global Digital Compact. The event, a brainchild of UN Secretary-General António Guterres, has been dubbed a “once in generation” opportunity to make the multilateral system fit for 21st-century challenges: War and peace, global warming, extreme poverty, and pandemics while addressing concerns about AI-driven technological changes. The summit also comes against the backdrop of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), six years away from the 2030 deadline, falling far behind and a paralysed UN Security Council that has struggled to halt wars from Ukraine to Gaza and Sudan. The push for reform brings both good and bad news. On the plus side, most UN members still support multilateral cooperation, and the call for reform has recently gained unprecedented momentum. While the vast majority of them still support multilateral cooperation, they have very different visions over the terms and scope of reform of the international body. For example, the most contentious negotiations have focused on the development and reform of the governance of international financial institutions as well as peace and security. In the week running up to the summit, Russia and a coalition of the so-called Like-Minded Group of autocratic states threatened to sink the summit declaration, opposing language that would protect human rights and strengthen the UN’s role in responding to global shocks. While there is hope in Midtown Manhattan that the declaration will be adopted, UN diplomats caution that real change is unlikely without buy-in from the world’s heavyweights. UN Security Council members China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States declined to send their leaders to participate, with most delegating foreign ministers instead, raising concerns about their commitment to the reform push. Here is a schedule of the two-day summit. BIG DEBATES | Six days of traditional leader’s speeches will start on Tuesday (24 September), with the majority of heavyweights stepping onto the Assembly podium on the first day. This year, currently 87 heads of state, three vice-presidents, two crown princes, 45 heads of government, eight deputy heads of government, 45 ministers, and four lower-ranked heads of a delegation are due to address the UNGA. Brazil traditionally opens on Tuesday morning, followed by the United States, which will see US President Joe Biden slated to deliver his final farewell address. Speaking order then comes on a first-come, first-served basis. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will address the Assembly on Wednesday. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is set to speak on Saturday (28 September). Meanwhile, European Council President Charles Michel will deliver the EU statement at the general debate on Thursday. But expect much of the actual action to happen on the sidelines, with hundreds of bilateral meetings and dozens of side events. Check our calendar for the week below. UKRAINE | Ukraine is expected to remain one of the centre-stage topics two-and-a-half years after Russia’s invasion of the country. The main show-down will be a UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine on Tuesday, where Zelenskyy will take the stage for the first time that week. EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell is expected to deliver the bloc’s remarks. On Thursday, Zelenskyy is scheduled to meet Biden in Washington. Speaking ahead of his trip, the Ukrainian leader said he would present his “victory plan” to Biden, which US Ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said has already been reviewed by the White House and is considered “a viable proposal.” The plan includes Ukraine’s aspirations for NATO and EU membership, economic and security agreements, and requests for continued supplies of advanced weapons, Ukrainian officials say. Over the recent months, Kyiv had stepped up the preparations for possible negotiations with Russia against the backdrop of a possible shift in US policy after November’s presidential elections. Expect Zelenskyy to push his American counterpart for binding security guarantees before Biden leaves office. MIDDLE EAST | With the death toll in Gaza reaching more than 41,000 casualties, according to Gaza’s health ministry, UN leaders are expected to call for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Concerns about a spillover of the conflict to the broader Middle East region are mounting after Lebanese militant group Hezbollah accused Israel of detonating pagers across the country. Discussions in New York will come as the UNGA last Wednesday (18 September) overwhelmingly adopted a non-binding resolution demanding Israel abide by a recent International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling that it end its “unlawful presence” in Gaza and other occupied Palestinian territories, as well as end its expansion of Israeli settlements. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas are both scheduled to address the chamber on Thursday. On the sidelines, several European diplomatic pushes are expected to end the conflict. A key event to watch will be the EU co-hosting a ministerial meeting on the Middle East Peace Process, open to all UN members willing to attend. Before the Hamas attacks on Israel on 7 October last year – only two weeks after the annual UN meeting – the EU had planned to help lead a new ‘incentives-focused’ Middle East peace initiative, dubbed the Peace Day Effort. A meeting in September 2023 in New York on the sidelines of the UNGA had gathered almost 50 foreign ministers from Europe and the Middle East to develop the initiative further. EU diplomats hope that this year, more countries will sign up to start discussions on ending the conflict and incentivising long-lasting peace. Both Israelis and Palestinians have received invitations, according to EU diplomats, but it remains unclear whether they will show up. Slovenia is expected to hold an informal meeting with the Arab League to discuss advancing peace efforts, support for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), and preventing “igniting a broader regional conflagration” across the region, according to an internal note, seen by Euractiv. And then there’s Iran, whose ‘substantial’ military support for Russia’s war in Ukraine is likely to cast a shadow over discussions in New York. Europeans are expected to seek to revive efforts to rein in Tehran’s nuclear program with Iranian and European officials due to meet in New York. | 