What's brewing for the EU's foreign policy reéntré

After an admittedly slow start to the season, Brussels is back in full swing, and so are we with this newsletter.

Expect a wild transition period as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen assembles her new team and the bloc’s future EU diplomat, Kaja Kallas, takes over from incumbent Josep Borrell.

And there will be more wrestling over the EU’s continued response to Ukraine, tit-for-tat tariffs with China, and a nail-biting US election pitting Kamala Harris against Donald Trump.

Here’s a run-down of the key events to keep an eye out for:

SEPTEMBER

• 2 September: First Coreper II of the season.
• 4 September: First College of Commissioners meeting.
• 5 September: Presentation of the Draghi Report.
• 10 September: ABC’s Harris/Trump election debate.
• 16-19 September: First European Parliament plenary.
• 22-23 September: UN Summit for the Future.
• 24-28 September: UN General Assembly, including EU-led talks on Gaza.
• late September-October, TBD: Commissioner hearings.
• EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell travels to Ukraine.

OCTOBER

• 1 October: Mark Rutte takes over as NATO Secretary-General as Stoltenberg steps down.
• 14 October: Foreign Affairs Council, Luxembourg.
• mid-October: Last enlargement package under the current European Commission.
• 16 October: EU-Gulf Cooperation Council Leaders’ Summit, Brussels.
• 17-18 October: European Council.
• 20 October: Moldova presidential elections and EU referendum.
• 26 October: Georgian parliamentary elections.
• mid-late October: UfM Ministerial for the Mediterranean.
• EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell travels to Ukraine.
• NATO Defence Ministerial, Brussels.
• Presentation of the Niinistö /HRVP report on how to enhance Europe’s civilian and defence preparedness and readiness.
• EU Rapid Deployment Capacity (RDC) second exercise.

NOVEMBER

• 1 November: tentative start date of the new European Commission (if there no delays).
• 5 November: US presidential elections.
• 7 November: European Political Community Summit, Hungary.
• 8 November: Informal European Council, Hungary (TBC).
• 11-22 November: COP29 in Azerbaijan.
• 18-19 November: Foreign Affairs and Defence Council.
• 21 November: Foreign Affairs (Trade) Council.
• NATO Informal Foreign Ministerial, TBD.
• EU institutions and member states negotiate on the European Defence Industrial Programme (EDIP).

DECEMBER

• 1 December: tentative start date of new European Commission (if one or more candidates are rejected).
• 2 December: Foreign Affairs Council (Development).
• 16 December: Foreign Affairs Council.
• 19-20 December: European Council.
• 31 December: Hungary hands over the rotating EU presidency to Poland.

OTHER KEY EVENTS

• Talks on the EU’s next long-term budget round are expected to start in autumn.
• First 100 days of the new Commission mandate: EU executive to present White Paper on the Future of European Defence.
• European Commission expected to make proposals for urgent defence investment needs and propose several defence projects of common European interest, including European Air Shield and cyber defence.
• European Commission expected to present Preparedness Union Strategy.
• European Commission to present a strategy to support medical countermeasures against public health threats, such as those linked to CBRN security, including joint procurement and stockpiling.
• European Commission expected to work on expanding the sanctions framework for cyberattacks and how a new sanctions regime for hybrid attacks on the EU and its member states could work

BATTLES AHEAD | With a flurry of self-declared peace missions on Ukraine before summer, Hunagry’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán branded himself as a middleman who could fix certain issues with Russia, China, or other actors interested in influencing European politics.

The move, however, has irritated the EU and its member states, culminating in the decision to downgrade and move Thursday’s prestigious meeting from Budapest to Brussels. And there's more to come.

ESCALATION RISK | As the war between Israel and Gaza approaches the one-year mark, Jean-Pierre Lacroix, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations, called on Europeans not to underestimate the risk of an escalation in the region.

RESTRICTIONS UPDATE | Ukraine this week stepped up its push for Western approval to strike military targets deep inside Russia, urging allies to lift restrictions on the use of their donated long-range weapons.

EUMAM TARGET | The EU is expected to raise its training targets for Ukraine’s army from the current 60,000 to 75,000 by the end of the year as ministers look into reviewing the mission’s mandate, but the idea of moving training in Ukraine is still far from getting unanimous support.

• America Isn’t Ready for the Wars of the Future [Foreign Affairs]
• The Story That “Hillbilly Elegy” Doesn’t Tell [The New Yorker]
• The False Promise of Ukraine’s Deep Strikes Into Russia [Foreign Affairs]
• Why Sudan’s Catastrophic War Is The World’s Problem [Economist]

• EU’s chief diplomat Borrell addresses Ventotene International Seminar
  | Sunday, 1 September 2024 | Ventotene, Italy
• European Commission President von der Leyen to attend Bled Strategic Forum
  | Monday, 2 September 2024 | Lake Bled, Slovenia
• Informal meeting of European affairs ministers
  | Tuesday, 3 September 2024 | Budapest, Hungary
• European Parliament’s SEDE committee meets
  | Wednesday, 4 September 2024 | Brussels, Belgium
• Ukraine Defense Contact Group meets
  | Friday, 6 September 2024 | Ramstein, Germany
• Italy’s Prime Minister Meloni addresses meeting of G7 parliamentarians
  | Friday, 6 September 2024 | Verona, Italy
• Spain’s Prime Minister Sanchez’s state visit to China
  | Saturday, 7 September 2024 | Beijing, China

And as always, if you’d like to contact me for tips, comments, and/or feedback, drop me a line at alexandra.brzozowski@euractiv.com.

Drop us a line at alexandra.brzozowski@euractiv.com and aurelie.pugnet@euractiv.com for leaks, tips and comments, or contact us on Twitter: @alex_owski and @PugnetAurelie