Why Costa has to prepare for a tough term ahead When European Council President-elect Antonio Costa takes over the reins on 1 December, he will have his work cut out for him.
Over the past months, Costa has been travelling across EU member states, holding informal talks with leaders to have ticked the boxes of all 27 before his term officially begins. And Costa's plate for the next five years will be more than full. Ukraine is expected to remain the Union's number one priority, but Kyiv is facing a difficult moment in Russia's war against the country. While the EU has presented unprecedented unity on Ukraine support – admittedly with some hiccups – the next few years are likely to see the need to mediate between continued support for Kyiv's vision of the 'day after' and increased pushes for potential appeasement towards Russia. The sense in Brussels is that difficult choices will have to be made. The first test of Costa's leadership will come right at the beginning of his term, only weeks after the US presidential elections, with a possible return of former Republican President Donald Trump to the White House. Trump has repeatedly announced he would attempt to bring peace to Ukraine. And while Costa believes in strong transatlantic ties, the EU's war-gaming on a potential Trump victory promises some work ahead. For this reason, Costa is also likely to look into reinforcing engagement with third countries and developing relationships with some of them to win the 'battle of offers' against Russia, China and other global powers. Enlargement is expected to remain a key priority, with member states and officials adamant not to frustrate the expectations of the EU hopefuls that have been raised with the declared 2030 accession goal. But while there is strong momentum to bring new members – and some of them, such as potentially Montenegro, are ready to join sooner – the ring of fire in the neighbourhood keeps simmering. Political instability and foreign interference in some of the newer hopefuls, like Georgia and Moldova, as well as security in the Caucasus, are likely to remain a problem. A big chunk of Costa's presidency will focus on how the EU can increase its competitiveness and invest more in defence. While EU member states seem to largely agree with former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi's diagnosis, the challenge of finding the money and implementing those ideas remains. Ultimately, however, the key challenge for Costa will be how he manages to keep EU leaders' unity and interinstitutional relations on good terms. Ties between his predecessor, Charles Michel, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen were not great, often hampering the Union's ability to speak with one voice. EU diplomats and officials believe it won't be the same with the new tandem. There is already talk of pooling bilateral meetings at major international summits – where possible. However, despite the EU treaties being clear on foreign policy competencies, 'grey areas' will remain and potentially offer room for conflict between institutions. EU's next Chief Diplomat, Kaja Kallas, already has a to-do list when it comes to making sure to 'do more with less' budget and capacity, and member states jealously guarding their interests. An increasing number of diplomats and officials are rooting for both Costa and Kallas to push back against a potential power grab on foreign policy matters by von der Leyen. | 
