| IMF sets Cruise control | 27% softer drinks |

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Hi John, here's what you need to know for January 21st in 3:08 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. The International Monetary Fund lowered its outlook for global economic growth
  2. Morgan Stanley sees an “underappreciated turnaround story” in Japanese stock markets – Read Now
  3. Shares of British drink-maker Fevertree fell 27% after the company lowered its revenue forecast
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Trim Pickings

Trim Pickings

What’s Going On Here?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) trimmed its growth forecasts for the global economy on Monday, but it also softened previous risk warnings.

What Does This Mean?

The IMF – a sort of bank for countries and thus an authority on this sort of thing – now expects the world economy to grow 3.3% in 2020 and 3.4% in 2021, down from previous forecasts of 3.4% and 3.6%. Still, that’d represent a marked improvement on the 2.9% growth seen in 2019: the slowest since the last financial crisis a decade ago. Adding to the sense of hope, the IMF also said in its outlook that it sees fewer negative risks to the global economy in 2020. Phew…

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: A balance of probabilities.
Despite holding or pruning its growth forecasts for most of the world’s largest economies, the IMF lifted China's presumptive pullulation as a result of the initial trade deal signed with the US last week. Taken together with signs that the slump in manufacturing is bottoming out and central banks’ cutting of interest rates around the world, the IMF thinks this could be good for global growth. But it’s also got a long list of potential negatives to balance that out: as well as the risk of renewed trade tensions, there’s heightened US-Iran conflict that could hit oil supply, social unrest, and weather-related disasters.

For markets: Interesting times.
The IMF reckons that global growth would have been 0.5% slower in 2019 had central banks not cut interest rates last year, and that tailwind should extend to 2020 as well. Stronger economic growth based on cheap borrowing could lead to higher company profits – and lower interest rates help lift stock prices in other ways too, including by making their dividend payments relatively more attractive. According to analysts at investment bank Goldman Sachs, the lower interest rates offered by bonds drove 90% of US stocks’ returns last year (tweet this).

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2/3 Premium Story

Fundamental Block

With global stocks climbing around 25% in 2019 even though company profits barely budged, investors could be forgiven for thinking aggressive central bank action had broken the historic relationship between the two. But here comes investment bank Morgan Stanley with a reminder that these so-called “fundamentals” still matter…

Get the full story in the Finimize app

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Not So Neat

Not So Neat

What’s Going On Here?

Fevertree, the British maker of premium drink mixers and former stock market darling, issued a decidedly flat trading update on Monday – causing its shares to lose a quarter of their fizz.

What Does This Mean?

Fevertree – named after the all-natural ingredient in its flagship tonic waters – warned on slowing sales for the second time in three months: the company now thinks revenue grew 10% last year, significantly watered down from 40% in 2018. Making matters worse, Fevertree expects to swallow a 5% drop in 2019 profit. Investors were left with a nasty taste in their mouths – and the broken bough sent the drinks firm’s once-lofty share price crashing a record 27%.

Fevertree’s home market was one source of blame, with UK consumers splashing out less than expected over the holiday season. But feverish attempts to increase brand awareness overseas saw heavy spending and price promotions help turn total profit slimline. In the US, sales grew 33% last year – but in the absence of a UK-style gin boom boosting demand for Fevertree’s tonics, these continued to make up a bitterly small slice of overall revenue.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: Retail on the rocks.
The mixer magnate’s British malaise – which Fevertree expects to continue during the first half of 2020 – mirrors the experience of other consumer companies. Superdry, John Lewis, Marks & Spencer, and Morrisons have all warned of slowing sales this month, and it’s no coincidence that data out last week showed retail sales in the UK suffering their longest spell of no growth on record.

For markets: In the mixer.
Fevertree’s shares have now fallen more than 60% from their all-time high, but there may be a silver lining. Prior to Monday, the company’s stock price sat at Apple-like levels relative to its earnings. Now that this disparity has evaporated faster than your friend when it’s their round at the bar, Fevertree may be an attractive takeover target for one of its big beverage rivals...

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💬 Quote of the day

“Don’t be afraid to question your leaders. But don’t ask too many questions at one time or that are too hard because your leaders get tired and/or cranky.”

– Will Ferrell (an American actor, comedian, producer, writer, and businessman)
Tweet this
🤔 Q&A

“Why do crude oil prices affect stock prices?”

– Li

“Most of the time, Li, it’s down to one of two reasons. First, the profits of major oil companies – the firms that extract the commodity and sell it on to refiners and other customers – rely on the price of the oil. They earn more when it’s higher and less when it’s lower – and investors tend to buy or sell those firms’ shares accordingly. Alternatively, a fluctuation in oil’s price might represent a broader economic trend: if economic growth accelerates and demand for oil rises, it stands to reason other companies might also benefit from that increased demand. And so too might their profits, potentially leading investors to buy up their stocks.”

Finimize

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📚 What we're reading

  • Altruism keeps the world spinning (Longreads)
  • We’re taking over the universe, one bacterium at a time (Cosmos)
  • How to be a better listener (Guardian)
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