By Michael Shepherd - July 15, 2022 Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up.
Good morning from Augusta. There are 116 days until Maine's November elections.
What we're watching today
Maine's swing-seat congressman has some legislative success and defies easy characterization. There is another toss-up race looming in Maine's 2nd Congressional District with former Rep. Bruce Poliquin trying to avenge his loss to Rep. Jared Golden in the Democratic wave year of 2018. It will be another ranked-choice voting race with independent Tiffany Bond on the ballot, just as she was four years ago.
The national environment should lead this race to tighten with midterm election factors weighing down Democrats, but Golden has polled well so far against an opponent who is well-known and has long been on the statewide stage. A recent run from the congressman shows why he should prove to be a difficult member for Republicans to oust.
On Thursday, the Democratic-led House of Representative passed an $839 billion defense spending bill that includes three Bath Iron Works-built destroyers with the support of Golden and Rep. Chellie Pingree, another Democrat from Maine's 1st District. Golden was a key figure in negotiations, sponsoring an amendment to the package that raised it $37 billion in line with the state delegation's long tradition of trying to pad the defense budget on behalf of Bath and the Porstmouth Naval Shipyard in Kittery.
That was not all that Golden got through that day. As part of a bigger legislative package, the House also passed a Golden-backed measure to bypass a 1980 settlement agreement with Maine to allow tribes here to automatically benefit from future federal Indian legislation, a push that has also been helped along by Pingree while being lobbied against by Gov. Janet Mills. The two members are also trying to ensure its passage by getting the measure into an interior budget.
Golden has not won yet on either front. The Senate is expected to change the defense budget and Maine's senators have not disclosed how they feel about the tribal-rights idea, with a forest products industry group working Susan Collins and Angus King to kill it or scale it back on that side. There is more politicking to do across the board.
But the two items sum up Golden's political profile. As Poliquin and Republicans try to tie him to Democratic leadership, he remains the most conservative Democrat in the chamber, according to VoteView. Though he has frustrated progressives with votes against the American Rescue Plan Act and gun-control measures, he is sticking his neck out on tribal rights and he is firmly pro-abortion rights. There is a little bit of West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin here along with a progressive streak on certain issues.
None of it means that Golden is safe in 2022. Poliquin is seen as the narrowest of favorites by FiveThirtyEight with his party likely to retake the House. But even a toss-up bet is a great place for any Democrat to be these days in Maine's 2nd District with per-gallon gas prices still near the $5 mark. The congressman's unique profile is a major reason why he is in the game.
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News and notes
The National Governors Association meeting ends today in Portland.
— Country music legend Dolly Parton made a virtual appearance to discuss her literacy initiative and perform songs. Here's your soundtrack. Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson will turn the association's chairmanship over to New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy before a media availability with governors planned around 11:30 a.m. The agenda.
— The conference has been "the largest security event to take place in Maine in decades," the Maine Department of Public Safety told the Portland Press Herald. There have been large security details and long street closures. It is so far unclear how much of the costs will be covered by taxpayers.
— Governors were taken to Fort Williams Park in Cape Elizabeth for a Wednesday evening lobster dinner in the closed public park.
Republicans are campaigning on Maine's economy shrinking earlier this year.
— Maine was among the 46 states whose economy shrank in the last quarter, according to federal data. The state's gross domestic product fell by 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2022.
— It was a slightly lower hit than the national average of 1.6 percent. The economies of New Hampshire, Vermont and Massachusetts grew slightly during that period.
— In a fundraising email, former Gov. Paul LePage referenced New Hampshire's Republican leaders and blamed Mills and President Joe Biden for Mainers "facing record inflation and making tough financial decisions each day."
— But a wider look at the national map yields no discernible pattern of states' partisan lean related to growth. While New Hampshire has virtually always shown better than Maine in economic indicators including the unemployment rate, Maine has gained workers from there during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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What we're reading
— Gov. Janet Mills and the Republican governors of New Hampshire and Massachusetts commiserated over the housing crisis and its effect on tourism businesses during a session at the governors conference on Thursday.
— Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker did not rule out a 2024 presidential run in a brief interview in Portland. The Democratic billionaire is expected to easily win his reelection race this year and is being eyed as one of the governors most likely to take further steps onto the national stage.
— A Canadian mining company is pushing towns around a northern Penobscot County mountain to back their request for a state permit.
— The Deer Isle region's only nursing home, which closed last year, shut the door this week on the possibility of reopening under its old model and is now seeking a buyer for skilled care beds.
Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson speaks at the National Governors Association meeting on Thursday in Portland alongside a compact with other governors to expand computer science education. (AP photo by Robert F. Bukaty)
📷  Lead photo: U.S. Rep. Jared Golden of Maine's 2nd District, holding his 14-month-old daughter Rosemary, speaks to the press following a tour of Peabody Hall at Husson University in Bangor on June 28, 2022. (BDN photo by Linda Coan O'Kresik)
