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Hi John, here's what you need to know for April 1st in 3:12 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. Goldman Sachs has identified stocks that investors might want to buy no matter how long the coronavirus disruptions last
  2. With Asian stock prices their cheapest in eight years, our analysts explore which markets could bounce back first – Read Now
  3. Chinese economic activity picked up by more than expected last month, but investors are concerned it might be misleading
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The Immune System

The Immune System

What’s Going On Here?

In a recent report, investment banking giant Goldman Sachs picked a handful of stocks that should vaccinate investors against the coronavirus pandemic – and even some that could help them come out stronger.

What Does This Mean?

Goldman’s analysis splits companies into four categories. First, companies like Amazon and Procter & Gamble that should see ongoing demand for their products no matter how long the pandemic lasts. Second, those that should recover quickly when the economy stabilizes: Uber, for one, could see its ride-hailing and food delivery businesses pick up pronto. Third, those that should recover more gradually: FedEx, for instance, should benefit from pent-up global demand for restocked shelves. And finally, companies that should eventually recover, albeit over a longer period. That includes media conglomerate Disney, whose fairgrounds – which contribute half its annual profit – may take a while to ramp back up when they finally reopen.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: These are the dividend times.
Income-focused stock market investors will probably waste no time in analyzing the dividend yields of Goldman’s choices, but they might want to keep in mind another of its predictions. The bank expects US companies’ dividends this year to be 25% lower than last, as coronavirus-battered companies trim payouts to save cash (tweet this). Still, it reckons the biggest companies – those with the longest records of paying dividends and high yields – should largely be safe from the payout slowdown.

For you personally: A note of caution.
Picking one individual stock to back is risky because it exposes you to potentially unexplainable swings in value, regardless of your best analysis. Even the professionals only get it right half the time. A more balanced portfolio might manage that risk by buying a collection of companies via an exchange-traded fund (ETF). Whether you want a slice of the entire stock market or a specific industry, there are now more ETFs than there are individual stocks, so there’s bound to be something that suits.

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2/3 Premium

Go East

With the Chinese economy showing early signs of a rebound, our analysts’ thoughts are turning to how a recovery might affect stocks in Asia – where prices are currently at an eight-year low.

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3/3

Making Tracks

Making Tracks

What’s Going On Here?

China’s economic activity roared back like a steam train in March, if Tuesday’s survey data is anything to go by.

What Does This Mean?

The regular surveys – which ask purchasing managers how busy they’ve been each month – showed activity in the country’s manufacturing sector climbing in March, despite economists’ expectations it would continue to shrink after February’s record low. And it wasn’t just the machines: China’s non-manufacturing activity unexpectedly perked up last month too.

Despite the improvements, investors praising China’s economic recovery may be jumping the gun. Remember, these surveys track how busy companies have been partly in anticipation of future demand for their products. In other words, increased activity doesn’t necessarily lead to an immediate surge in demand, whether domestic or – with many countries still in lockdown and their consumers curbing their spending – international.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: My way or the Huawei.
Chinese telecoms giant Huawei revealed on Tuesday that its 2019 profit hadn’t grown by as much as it’d promised. That might have something to do with its blacklisting in the US last year, which saw several American companies barred from trading with the firm. If that ban isn’t revoked, the company says this year could be its toughest yet. At least Huawei’s expecting sales of its smartphones – particularly its new 5G-enabled phone – to recover as people return to work in China, where it made around 40% of its earnings last year.

The bigger picture: As good as gold oil.
Commodity investors might be relieved when China’s economy starts firing on all cylinders again too. China’s the world’s largest oil importer – and between the country’s drop in demand and Russia and Saudi Arabia’s price war, oil’s price has fallen by its most ever in a single quarter. Investors and oil producers who want that price to rebound might be hoping renewed demand from China will help.

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💬 Quote of the day

“April 1st: this is the day upon which we are reminded of what we are on the other 364.”

– Mark Twain (an American writer, humorist, and lecturer)
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📚 What we're reading (that's not about coronavirus)

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