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Hi John, here's what you need to know for July 10th in 3:11 minutes.

☕️ Finimized over a latte at The Cube Cafe in Abuja, Nigeria (27°C/81°F ☔)

Today's big stories

  1. US stock market investors seem to be expecting Democrats to win this year’s presidential election, says Goldman Sachs
  2. The world's oldest and most popular hedge fund strategy may have just fallen apart – Read Now
  3. German software giant SAP reported a positive preliminary quarterly update
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Spin Doctors

Spin Doctors

What’s Going On Here?

A recent report from investment bank Goldman Sachs showed what investors think will happen when November’s US election rolls around. Jackpot.

What Does This Mean?

Specialist prediction markets currently show the Democratic Party will win majorities in the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the White House, but Goldman Sachs’ analysts used two more indicators. First, the options market: the bets investors are making on future prices suggest, on average, that the Senate majority and president mightn’t actually be confirmed by the end of Election Day. That’s because there’s high implied volatility after the election date, which hints that investors are expecting continued uncertainty. Then Goldman looked at US stocks, whose recent ongoing rise seems to show investors are comfortable with the Democratic majority outcome reflected in polls and prediction markets.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Electile dysfunction.
Higher-than-usual levels of investor uncertainty going into the end of the year – particularly concerning the US election – are partly down to coronavirus. Last election, 60% of the electorate voted on Election Day, while the rest voted early or by mail. But the proportion of voters using alternative methods will probably be even higher this time because of social distancing guidelines. In a tight vote with more sources to account for, it’ll be harder for investors to know whether they’re coming or going.

Zooming in: Wrong side of the tax.
Some companies’ earnings are more sensitive than others to the tax increases a Democratic government might bring. But Goldman’s analysts noted that those firms’ stock prices still haven’t fallen enough to reflect the increased chances Democrats will win. Still, there’s at least one industry that seems well aware of the looming threat to its bottom line: healthcare companies – whose profits might feel the effects of the party’s healthcare policies – have seen their stocks underperform in line with the rising likelihood of a Democratic majority.

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Rest In Uncertainty

What’s Going On Here?

After two high-profile investment managers shut their long-short equity funds, investors are wondering if this is the end for the world’s oldest and most popular hedge fund strategy.

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Bit By Bit

Bit By Bit

What’s Going On Here?

Europe’s largest tech company, SAP, announced a better-than-expected second-quarter update, and said it’s – very gradually – getting back to business as usual.

What Does This Mean?

SAP’s update was a preliminary one, so the final numbers at the end of this month might change a little. But generally speaking, the company was pretty surefooted: its revenue last quarter was 2% higher than the same time last year, and its profit was up 7%. That suggests a faster recovery from the coronavirus slump than either SAP or its investors were expecting.

SAP had previously lowered its 2020 earnings growth forecast after seeing its customers hit pause on tech spending earlier in the year. But now that a recovery seems to be on the cards, the software giant’s confirmed the earnings growth it promised at the end of its first quarter is achievable after all.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Going by the book.
SAP’s stock rose 7% on Thursday after the company’s update, which might reflect the relief some investors are feeling that European tech firms – still firmly in their US rivals’ shadows – have seen their fortunes improve. A better-than-expected quarter, meanwhile, should result in a higher forecast for the rest of the year, all else equal. But seeing as SAP left its forecast unchanged, investors might’ve interpreted it as a textbook example of underpromising in hopes of overdelivering later on – which typically results in a stock price boost.

The bigger picture: All wiggled out.
America’s biggest tech companies have continued their ascent this week, with the likes of Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft driving the country’s tech-heavy stock market index to record highs. But that rise might not be sustainable (tweet this). Deutsche Bank has warned that the speed and size of the gains don’t leave much wiggle room for another uptick when earnings reports are released later this month. JPMorgan, for its part, seems less worried: the bank reckons stocks are still attractive compared to bonds.

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💬 Quote of the day

“Everything becomes a little different as soon as it is spoken out loud.”

– Hermann Hesse (a German-born Swiss poet, novelist, and painter)
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🌏 Finimize Community

☀️ Broaden your horizons

You might not know much about the Nigerian economy, but the country’s going through some fascinating changes in response to the pandemic. So here’s your chance to learn more about what’s going on: our next Nigerian event is open to everyone.

🇳🇬 Nigeria: COVID-19 & The Nigerian Economy – 5pm West Africa Time, July 11th
🇭🇰 Hong Kong: Imagining Asia’s Next Decade – 9pm Hong Kong Time, July 14th
🇩🇪 Germany: Is Cash Still King in Germany? – 3pm Berlin Time, July 15th
🇺🇸 USA: IP Risk During A Pandemic – 11am New York Time, July 15th
🇺🇸 USA: How To Build An Anti-Racist Startup – 1pm New York Time, July 16th
🇺🇸 USA: What’s Next For Streaming? – 12pm New York Time, July 20th
🇦🇺 Australia: Women & Money (in-person) – 5.30pm Perth Time, July 22nd
🌎 Global: Finimize Live AMA – 1.30pm UK Time, July 28th
🇨🇦 Canada: Searching For Financial Stability – 1.30pm Pacific Time, July 28th
🇬🇧 UK: What’s Next For The Global Economy? – 6pm UK Time, July 29th
🇬🇧 UK: The Bright Future for Renewable Energy – 12pm UK Time, July 30th

📚 What we're reading

  • Cancel culture isn’t out of hand (Vox)
  • Three Guiness World Records, one day (YouTube)
  • Bleep bloop bloorp (Science Alert)

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