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Good Jobs Data Scares Investors |
Jobs data has been a key market driver through the Fed’s series of rate hikes.
Paradoxically, poor jobs data helps the market because it implies the Fed will ease off the gas to help the economy.
And vice-versa: Good jobs data tells the Fed fast hikes are OK.
Today, we have the latter. This has spooked investors who had hoped for a rate hike slowdown after Powell’s comments a few weeks back.
Initial jobless claims rose by 205,000 last week, smaller than the 225,000 that economists expected to see.
Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims (people who have filed at least one more claim after an initial claim) dropped slightly, falling below 1.7 million.
Shifting over to the ADP report, we see that the US added 235,000 jobs in December — smashing the expected 150,000 jobs increase… |
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Adding evidence of a booming labor market.
However, said boom is distributed unevenly across the economy.
“The labor market is strong but fragmented, with hiring varying sharply by industry and establishment size,” said ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson. “Business segments that hired aggressively in the first half of 2022 have slowed hiring and in some cases cut jobs in the last month of the year.”
Zooming in, it looks like small and medium-sized companies made the greatest gains. Together, these businesses added about 386,000 jobs.
Meanwhile, companies with over 500 employees saw a 151,000 net loss.
Nowhere is that clearer than at companies like Amazon, Salesforce, Facebook, and other tech companies, which have all announced staff cuts recently.
But here’s where things get interesting.
In November 2022, the BLS counted 10.4 million open jobs… |
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That marks 13 straight months of over 10 million openings.
One problem:
Only 6 million people were looking for work at that time.
Some say this is simply an unwillingness to work thanks to generous unemployment benefits.
Others claim a skills mismatch — the people looking for work don’t necessarily have the skills required for the roles in question.
Regardless, this could mean businesses (especially large ones, like those mentioned earlier) are struggling despite what looks like an improving economy.
So if the Fed takes allegedly substantial jobs numbers as a sign to keep hiking fast, this could potentially wreck large tech and finance companies.
Tomorrow morning will bring us the Labor Department jobs report. A 200,000 job increase is expected, but after the recent data, who knows how accurate that is. |
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IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone. Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. |
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