For those keeping an eye on the volatility in global markets, the Nasdaq managed to close 1% higher yesterday. Although it is nearly 11% higher for the year, the drawdown from the 52-week high of 18,671 to the current level of 16,367 (a drop of 12.3%) has been the talk of the town. To give you a better sense of how choppy things have been, the 52-week low is 12,543!
For traders, volatility means profits - provided they get it right. Trading an index is an art and a science, made possible by the right trading account that lets you go long or short depending on your view. For those wanting to learn about trading, I strongly recommend my podcast series with IG Markets South Africa. The latest episode is available here>>>
Having context to the recent volatility is really helpful. Satrix has given us a handy reminder of the performance for the first half of 2024. Read it here>>>
Local company news yesterday was led by Nedbank and a solid interim period of double digit HEPS growth. I've written about the numbers in detail in Ghost Bites of course, but you can also find the full reporting suite in Ghost Mail at this link as part of Nedbank's commitment to keep investors well informed.
Other important stuff included Afrimat giving a view on trading conditions in a post-GNU South Africa. As this is a common stock pick for a South African recovery, that's well worth paying attention to. We also had news from AngloGold, Hulamin, HomeChoice, Powerfleet, Sasfin and Trematon. Everything you need is in Ghost Bites here>>>
For those who enjoy learning about specific sectors, the latest Magic Markets podcast is a dive into the automotive sector. We warned about the pending BMW results and we turned out to be right about the pressures there. We also covered Ford, GM and Toyota. Start your engines here>>>
Have a great day! |
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FEATURED: Investec Structured Products new product applications close on 8 August |
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| | Investec Structured Products: Applications for the Nikkei 225 Autocall and Euro Stoxx 50 Autocall close on 8 August. Don't miss the opportunity to learn about these offshore investment opportunities. |
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Ghost Wrap: With thanks to Forvis Mazars the latest on MTN's African subsidiaries, ArcelorMittal and Curro, all in just a few minutes in the Ghost Wrap podcast. |
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FEATURED: The Trader's Handbook Ep 3 |
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IG Markets Episode 3: For a review of the trades in my demo account and a discussion on how to choose the right brokerage, I was joined as usual by Shaun Murison of IG Markets South Africa. Learn about trading at this link>>> |
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FEATURED: ChatGPT and first mover disadvantage |
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| | Dominique Olivier: Going first isn't always the best move in business. The benefit of hindsight is wonderful, even if we are talking about someone else's hindsight. ChatGPT is just the latest example of what looks increasingly like first mover disadvantage. Learn more here>>> |
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Ghost Bites: Get the latest on Afrimat, AngloGold, Hulamin, HomeChoice, Nedbank, Powerfleet, Sasfin and Trematon, along with various Little Bites in Ghost Bites here>>> |
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| | Unlock the Stock: In a session with a different format to the norm, Keillen Ndlovu joined us to present his institutional-quality research on the REIT sector, followed by a vibrant Q&A. Brought to you by the SA REIT Association, you can watch the recording here>>> |
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- Nico Katzke of Satrix: The GNU has driven significant optimism around the South African market. To help us understand where this is playing out and how the carry trade protects the rand, Nico Katzke joined me on Ghost Stories. Find it here>>>
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- Magic Markets: Is the automotive sector a good investment? Using examples like Ford, GM, Toyota and BMW, we set out to answer that question in the latest episode of Magic Markets. Find it here>>>
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- Investec No Ordinary Wednesday podcast: The market may be unpredictable, but your investment strategy doesn’t have to be. Investec Investment Management experts share their insights on what approaches are winning, common mistakes investors make, and why staying the course is important. Enjoy it here>>>
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International Business Snippet: |
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One of the concepts I try to drive home as frequently as possible is that competition comes to us all. The latest example is Novo Nordisk, best known at the moment for Wegovy / Ozempic. Results for the latest quarter missed estimates for net profit and saw the company reduce its guidance for operating profit growth for the full year. Don't get me wrong, it's still great at between 22% and 28% expected growth, but this reduction in profit growth guidance comes with the company raising its sales growth guidance.
It seems like their margins are on the same trimming strategy as many of the Ozempic patients. There's plenty of competition coming in this space and you can be sure that there will be a price war at some point. Super profits don't last forever in any industry.
We are covering Meta in Magic Markets Premium this week. For subscribers to Magic Markets Premium, the investment of R99/month is the best investment they can make. |
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IG Morning Call: daily macroeconomic update |
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The Bank of Japan has helped restore some calm to markets after indicating that it would not raise rates further in such a volatile environment. The news has provided some respite to the dollar / yen carry trade concerns in the near term.
While the dollar has clawed back losses against the yen, it has softened against a broad-basket of currencies including the rand.
Equity benchmarks in the US, Europe and Asia are all trading higher, so we expect a positive start for our local bourse the JSE All-Share Index.
Oil and gold prices ended yesterday's session lower after some suggestion of easing tensions in the Middle East, although both are marginally higher this morning.
There is no high-impact economic data scheduled for today.
Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R18.37/$ | US 10yr 3.91% | Gold $2,393/oz | Platinum $922/oz | Brent Crude $76.50
The macroeconomic update is based on IG's morning call update |
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