We asked Natan Sachs—director of the Brookings Center for Middle East Policy and senior fellow—a few questions about Hamas’ terrorist attack, the ensuing war in Israel and Gaza, and the U.S. response. Read his analysis below.
How is this war different from multiple previous rounds of Israel-Hamas fighting?
This war is not just another round of Israel-Hamas fighting since the latter took control of the Gaza Strip in 2007. The massive and horrific terrorist attack last Saturday, in which Hamas terrorists killed more than 1,000 Israelis, from very young children to the elderly, has created a completely different dynamic. The public response in Israel has called for a dramatic change to the status quo with Hamas, including some calls to retake the Gaza Strip and topple Hamas entirely. Israelis are now prepared to suffer—and to exact—far greater costs than they were before. This suggests a ground operation in Gaza is very likely, and possibly imminent, and that the death toll and damage in Gaza could far exceed even the high tolls of previous fighting.
What has been America’s response, and what are the main U.S. policy objectives at present?
President Biden has come out publicly and visibly on Israel’s side, channeling America’s collective disgust at the slaughter of entire families, the deliberate murder of babies, and the rape of victims. “The brutality of Hamas…” he said, “brings to mind the worst…rampages of ISIS.”
Biden took a major step beyond these expressions of solidarity with Israel in sending the USS Gerald Ford Carrier Group to underscore his warning “to any country, any organization, anyone thinking of taking advantage of this situation, I have one word: Don’t.” This step is meant to deter a major possible expansion of the war—if the Lebanese Hezbollah, backed by Iran, were to open a northern front against Israel. Hezbollah is far more powerful than Hamas, and a Hezbollah-Israel war would be devastating not only to Israel, but to Lebanon as well. Signaling that the United States may use its naval firepower against such a move could prove important in preventing it from happening.
Biden also reiterated what he and his administration have told Israelis in private, that its war should be conducted according to international law, saying that “terrorists…purposefully target civilians, kill them. We uphold…the law of war. It matters. There’s a difference.” His call for Israel to conduct its war this way will not prevent massive casualties in Gaza—indeed lawful warfare can be extremely bloody—but it has been central to the administration’s call on the Israelis to limit the damage to over 2 million Gazans, some half of whom are minors.
Where does the conflict go from here?
At present, Israel appears to be nearing a ground offensive in Gaza. It would aim to go after Hamas operatives and its vast military infrastructure inside (and underground) the populated areas of the Strip. Israel will be hindered by the extremely dense urban area, and by a foe that has been preparing for such an eventuality for years by embedding its fortifications within its own population. Israel will be further constrained by trying to minimize casualties among the more than 100 Israeli hostages, including babies, that Hamas took in its initial attack. In such circumstances, the death toll to the civilian population in Gaza is likely to be extremely high.
If Israel were to retake the Gaza Strip entirely and topple Hamas, which may not be its ultimate goal given the cost, it will also be left with an unanswered question: How can it govern the Gaza Strip after Hamas? Resuming Israeli occupation would be an opening for further bloodshed, and alternatives to Hamas are unclear. The Palestinian Authority in Ramallah, which claims Gaza as part of its territory, would be loath to be seen as following the Israeli military’s footsteps, especially given its deep crisis of legitimacy among its own population.
