The bitcoin market has yet to price in the expected May 2020 mining-reward halving, according to a new investor survey conducted by Grayscale Investments, the largest digital-currency asset manager.
Of 1,968 voters, 56 percent believe the rally from $4,000 to $13,880 witnessed in the four months to June was likely due to factors other than halving, and that the cryptocurrency may pick up a strong bid in the run-up to the event - or after the event.
Historically, bitcoin has begun rallying six months ahead of the reward halving. This time, however, the pre-halving period has begun on a negative note with the cryptocurrency falling almost 18 percent in November.
Prominent observers stand divided on the possible impact on the halving on bitcoin's price. Charles Hwang, managing member of the hedge fund Lightning Capital and an adjunct professor at Baruch College, thinks the halving could leave the cryptocurrency in a range between $20,000 and $50,000, assuming demand holds steady at 633,000 bitcoin through 2021.
Meanwhile, Jihan Wu, co-founder and ex-CEO of Bitmain, sounded pessimistic about the prospects of a price surge on halving while talking to CoinDesk in November.
“During the first and second halving, people didn’t know what to expect, and during the second halving, the scaling debate complicated the situation. Now people are expecting it and the bump projected from the halving might be baked in," Wu told CoinDesk.
Similar sentiments were echoed by Jason A. Williams, co-founder and partner of Morgan Creek Digital, via a tweet on Dec. 2.
It's worth noting that litecoin, widely considered the silver to Bitcoin's gold, underwent halving on Aug. 5. Since then, the cryptocurrency has lost more than 50 percent in value. At press time, litecoin is changing hands at $44.00.
What's more, litecoin's hash rate or computing power recently dropped to 12-month lows, as the slide in price following reward halving weighed on profitability and forced miners to shut down operations.
Litecoin's experience is a warning for bitcoin traders that reward halving is not always bullish. |
 
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Bitcoin Looks South
BTC: Price: $7,350 | Market cap: $133 billion | 24-Hr Volume: $18 billion
Short-term trend: Bearish Bitcoin is on a slippery footing, having faced repeated rejection above psychological resistance over the last four days.
The top cryptocurrency has failed to hold onto gains above $7,600 in three of the last four days.
Notably, Monday's rejection above $7,600 appeared most disheartening for the bulls, as the cryptocurrency ended up creating a bearish outside day candlestick pattern.
These patterns occur when the day begins with optimism but ends on a negative note, undoing or engulfing the preceding day's high and low.
Monday's candlestick has invalidated an upside break of the descending trendline confirmed on Dec. 6 and shifted risk in favor of a drop to key support at $7,087-$7,000.
Supporting the bearish case is the 4-hour chart, which is reporting a downside break of a trendline rising from recent lows near $6,500.
On the higher side, a move above $7,870 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.
Long-term trend: Neutral
Bitcoin's monthly MACD histogram has dropped below zero, signaling a bearish reversal. The cryptocurrency is trapped in a five-month bearish channel.
Even so, the outlook remains neutral, as the MACD is a lagging indicator. Further, the miners’ reward halving, usually a price-bullish event, is due in May 2020.
With BTC looking oversold after a 50 percent drop from June highs above $13,800, a notable recovery ahead of the supply-cutting event can’t be ruled out – more so, as the 50-week MA has crossed above the 100-week MA, confirming the first golden bull cross since May 2016.
After all, the previous bull cross had marked the start of a long-term bull market. The cryptocurrency picked up a strong bid near $430 following the bull cross confirmation in May 2016 and charted its way a record high of around $20,000 in December 2017.
That said, the outlook as per the weekly chart would turn bullish only if and when prices break higher from the five-month long bearish channel.
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Reaching Beyond the Horizen ZEN : Price: $6.12 | MCAP: $48.2 million | 24-Hr Volume: $700 million
Short-term trend: Bull potential ZEN is up 12.1 percent over a 24-hour period according to data provider Messari.io.
The rise can likely be attributed to trader speculation on upcoming events known as "Faucet Bonus Day" and a "Sphere release update" slated for the beginning of January next year.
The bullish ascending triangle formation, albeit roughly sketched, shows a series of higher lows and similar highs as each attempt at a new high capped out at around $5.80 until that was scaled above on today's strong buyer momentum.
ZEN is a privacy-oriented cryptocurrency with sidechains enabling developers to build privacy-based applications on top of it.
Should prices fall back within the triangle below $5.80, abort the bullish view.
Long-term trend: Cautiously bullish
ZEN has enjoyed a larger than usual injection of volume since Oct. 19, providing legitimacy for the price moves higher.
That will need to be sustained throughout the remainder of the year, which would align with its upcoming bullish fundamentals.
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| | | Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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