Trump takes the bait on night that could transform the presidential race

Good morning. If you had a sinking feeling on 28 June when you woke up to the news that Joe Biden had turned in an utterly incoherent debate performance, you will probably have a bit more appetite for your boiled egg this time. A few hours ago, the only scheduled debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris came to an end – and even Fox News said Harris won.

Democrats’ moods can only have been improved by the news, a few minutes after it ended, that Taylor Swift had endorsed Harris, and signed her post “childless cat lady”. And CNN’s snap poll suggested that voters thought Harris won by a margin of 63% to 37% – nearly as big a margin as Trump achieved over Biden last time around. Key to Harris’ success was baiting her opponent into rants on marginal topics, instead of talking about the issues that voters are interested in.

But while millions watched, Harris and Trump will reach millions more through the clips that will now be distributed through news and social media. For further reading on the debate, take a look at Gabrielle Canon’s key takeaways, this fact-check on both candidates, and follow the reaction on the live blog. Today’s newsletter runs you through five of the key moments, and explains why they mattered. Here are the headlines.

Five big stories

In depth: ‘They’re eating the pets of the people that live there’

After a period of undoubted momentum for Kamala Harris, the vice-president came into this debate having stalled somewhat. Recent polls suggest that the race is effectively tied, both nationally and in most of the battleground states that will likely decide the outcome. Because the way voters are distributed gives Republicans an advantage in the electoral college, and because you would usually expect to see Harris’ post-convention bump fade somewhat, polling experts like Nate Silver have recently seen Trump as the favourite to prevail.

Many presidential candidates have “won” debates and ultimately lost the race – but there is little doubt that Kamala Harris had a good enough night to change those odds in her favour. Donald Trump’s team wanted him to hang the Biden administration’s unpopular policies around her neck, but instead he repeatedly lapsed into rambling and extreme MAGA talking points that seem likely to have left many voters nonplussed.

The problem is not so much that he revealed himself as an erratic character, which any swing voter surely already knows: the problem is that he gifted Harris, who appeared supremely well-prepared, the chance to present him as the exhausting candidate of the all-too-familiar past – and herself as the optimist with a vision for the future.

Here are five key exchanges that are likely to dominate the campaign in the days ahead.

Economy | Harris promises to lift up the middle class while Trump blames her for high inflation

Moderator David Muir: When it comes to the economy, do you believe Americans are better off than they were four years ago?

Kamala Harris: So, I was raised as a middle-class kid. And I am actually the only person on this stage who has a plan that is about lifting up the middle class and working people of America.

Donald Trump: We have inflation like very few people have ever seen before. Probably the worst in our nation’s history.

The debate kicked off with a section on the economy, arguably the toughest section of the night for Harris, who must contend with the fact that many voters blame the Biden administration for years of high inflation. While Harris set out more details of her own agenda, from a $6,000 child tax credit to a tax deduction for small businesses, her point that she and Biden were dealing with the Trump legacy of “the worst unemployment since the Great Depression” did not really make an affirmative case for the record of the last four years.

Trump did land his points about inflation and the dubious claim that he created “one of the greatest economies in the history of our country” in his first term. But he also got distracted: by Harris calling his plan to raise tariffs a “Trump sales tax”, and by his own digression into a claim that “millions of people [are] pouring into our country from prisons and jails, from mental institutions and insane asylums”. That was a hint of what was to come.

Taking the bait | Harris tempts Trump into going off topic

Kamala Harris: You will see during the course of his rallies he talks about fictional characters like Hannibal Lecter. He will talk about “windmills cause cancer”. And what you will also notice is that people start leaving his rallies early out of exhaustion and boredom. And I will tell you the one thing you will not hear him talk about is you.

Donald Trump: People don’t leave my rallies. We have the biggest rallies, the most incredible rallies in the history of politics. That’s because people want to take their country back.

Can it really be this easy to wind him up? Again and again, Harris chose lines that keyed into Trump’s personal preoccupations – and managed to goad him into responding to them at length instead of focussing on the kinds of issues that matter to voters. This exchange about crowd sizes, during a section of the debate that was supposed to be about immigration, meant that he had less time to talk a subject that is one of the areas where voters have the most doubts about Harris.

Similarly, during a section about Harris’ changing position on fracking, he allowed himself to be sidetracked by her claim that he was given $400m by his father. Then there was the sales tax thing; the controversial conservative roadmap for a second Trump term, Project 2025; and the way he let a discussion about the Biden administration’s Afghanistan withdrawal turn into one about his invitation to Taliban leaders to come to Camp David for talks.

None of these subjects would have been on his campaign managers’ list of the talking points they would have wanted him to hit – and none of them mean very much to swing voters.

Abortion | Fact-check on wild claim that Democrats will execute babies after birth

Donald Trump: Her vice presidential pick says abortion in the ninth month is absolutely fine. He also says execution after birth … and that’s not OK with me.

Moderator Linsey Davis: There is no state in this country where it is legal to kill a baby after it’s born.

While it’s not exactly a Woodward and Bernstein moment to observe that murdering babies is illegal in America, it was significant that Trump was much more thoroughly fact-checked by the debate moderators than he was when he faced Biden. And it was part of a section on abortion rights, up there with the economy as one of the key issues driving this election, which did him few favours.

Meanwhile, if you had “baby killers” on your bingo card, you may nonetheless have been caught unawares by Trump’s other truly wild lie of the night: his reference to false claims that Haitian immigrants in Ohio are eating their neighbours’ pets. “In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs,” he said. “The people that came in. They’re eating the cats. They’re eating -- they’re eating the pets of the people that live there.” Harris turned to a visual shorthand she used repeatedly over the course of the debate (above) – cocking her head and looking at Trump with a bemused look on her face and her chin resting on her hand. You will certainly see this memed endlessly in the days ahead.

The Spingfield city manager said that there have been no such reports, moderator David Muir noted. “But the people on television say their dog was eaten,” Trump replied. After the debate, Trump and his supporters characterised this kind of exchange as evidence of a “three-on-one” debate, which you can make your own mind up about. Harris, for her part, responded by saying “talk about extreme” and immediately pivoting to her own attack lines – the inverse of Trump’s approach.

Healthcare | A line you’re going to hear again and again

Linsey Davis: So just a yes or no, you still do not have a plan?

Donald Trump: I have concepts of a plan.

By coincidence, this is exactly what I told my editor when she asked how close I was to filing about an hour ago. It is also the kind of wafty answer on a matter of substance that is likely to be clipped up and used in Harris attack ads repeatedly over the next few weeks.

Trumps “concepts of a plan” refer to how he would replace the Affordable Care Act, the popular Obama era law that mandated the availability of health insurance to low-income families. There were other evasions, too, like his complicated language on abortion, and on whether he had any regrets about January 6. On Ukraine, Trump would not say that he wanted Kyiv to win, instead saying “I want the war to stop” and claiming that he would end it before even taking office by making Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskiy talk to each other.

The Biden legacy | Harris keeps her distance

Donald Trump: Where is our president? We don’t even know if he’s a president.

Kamala Harris: You’re not running against Joe Biden, you’re running against me.

This line from Harris, clearly scripted, was nonetheless a useful shorthand for the way she wants the race to be framed: as a chance to move on from the political division that has exhausted Americans for the last eight years, with her as a candidate who is not wedded to every aspect of the Biden record. In her closing statement, she said: “You’ve heard tonight two very different visions for our country: one that is focused on the future and the other that is focused on the past, and an attempt to take us backward. But we’re not going back.’”

In his own closing statement, Trump finally did what his team would have wanted him to do throughout – blame Harris relentlessly for everything voters dislike about Biden. “She’s been there for three and a half years,” he said. “They’ve had three and a half years to fix the border. They’ve had three and a half years to create jobs and all the things we talked about. Why hasn’t she done it?”

But by then, it felt like the narrative of the night was irreversibly set. And when Trump rambled into the claim that “we’re going to end up in a third world war, and it will be a war like no other because of nuclear weapons, the power of weaponry,” it merely seemed like normal service had been resumed.

What else we’ve been reading

Now the long summer of sport is over in Paris, Jonathan Liew explains how France can make good on its promises about what the long-term legacy of the Games will be in the capital. Nimo

Guardian arts editor Alex Needham has a wonderful interview with Holly Johnson of Frankie Goes to Hollywood on his queer pop legacy, and the diagnosis that changed his life. Hannah J Davies, deputy editor, newsletters

It looks as though the trend machine is moving on from the Y2K aesthetic and is creeping towards the indie-sleaze, Tumblr-core era of the early 2010s. One symbol of this change, Alaina Demopoulos writes, is the apparent comeback of a hideous (or iconic) ankle boot that so many teens and twentysomethings coveted more than a decade ago. Nimo

Stick blender devotees with a taste for root veg (reporting for duty!) are sure to love Georgina Hayden’s potato and celeriac soup with an almond breadcrumb topping. Hannah

A borough-wide rewilding scheme has created tension in one community after vigilante mowers cut down the grass. Kate McCusker spoke to residents about their grievances and apprehension. Nimo

Sport

Football | Harry Kane scored twice on his 100th international appearance, leading England to a 2-0 Nations League victory over Finland. The Republic of Ireland’s Nations League misery continued as Greece emerged from their Group 2 trip to Dublin with a 2-0 win.

Cricket | Dan Lawrence has been left out of England’s squad for the three‑Test tour of Pakistan in October, with ­Jordan Cox selected as the spare batter in the 17-man group. Lawrence struggled as an opener in the series win against Sri Lanka, ­failing to pass 35 in six innings.

Football | Chelsea have held talks over leaving Stamford Bridge and moving to Earl’s Court as they seek a resolution to their plans for a bigger stadium. Increasing the capacity from 42,000 is a major priority for the owners and the difficulty of redeveloping the ground has led the club to look for a new site in west London.

The front pages

“PM faces calls to aid poorest as winter fuel cut approved” says the Guardian this morning while the i splashes on “Starmer and Reeves to push ahead with cuts after facing down rebel MPs”. It’s not over in the Daily Express which says “United we stand in winter fuel fight”. “Who voted for all this” – the Daily Mail fulminates over early release prisoners being showered with champagne on the same day as the winter fuel vote. “Kyiv to get go-ahead to strike deep into Russia” – that’s the Times while the Daily Telegraph has “President poised to lift Ukraine missile ban”. “Hand in your phones” – the Daily Mirror has a “Strictly shock … crew’s messages examined”. “Apple ordered by EU court to pay €13bn in Irish back tax” is the top story in the Financial Times while in the Metro it’s “Coroner: suicide not caused by show – Huge toll on me, by cleared TV Kyle”.

Today in Focus

Cartoon of the day | Martin Rowson

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

Oysters aren’t just a fun treat to eat when you’re at the seaside, they are also excellent natural water filters and a crucial part of the surrounding aquatic ecosystems. One adult oyster can filter 200 litres of water in a day and just one hectare of oyster reef supports three tonnes of other marine life every year. But a combination of pollution, deliberate destruction and overfishing has meant that globally at least 85% of oyster habitats have been lost. In the UK, that number is 95%. Yorkshire Wildlife Trust, Lincolnshire Wildlife Trust and the green energy company Ørsted are spearheading a restoration project that would create a new oyster reef just off the English coast. If the project works in the Humber, as it has already done in the US and Australia, it is hoped it can be expanded to other sites, creating a network of oyster reefs that will join together. “If we can pull this off,” said Dr Boze Hancock, a senior marine restoration scientist, “you can do this anywhere”.

Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday

Bored at work?

And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.

Quick crossword

Cryptic crossword

Wordiply