Americans’ pay has been impacted by numerous factors in recent years: historic job losses at the beginning of the pandemic, strength in the labor market through the recovery, sectoral shifts, and high levels of inflation. But surprisingly, there is little consensus on how workers’ pay has fared over this period. Some argue that the last several years have been a time of historic gain for workers’ pay, while others say that pay has been falling since the start of the pandemic.

Why can’t we agree about what has happened to pay? In new research, Chloe East, Wendy Edelberg, and Noadia Steinmetz-Silber walk through why it can be difficult to understand how pay has changed and what it means for public perceptions of the U.S. labor market.