25/09/24View in Browser

Heat pump sales plummet, nuclear re-evaluates new EU Commission, Energy Charter Treaty crusade continues

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Fresh data: 47% drop in heat pump sales

The latest figures from industry association EHPA shows that heat pump sales in the first half of 2024 are down 47% compared to the same period in 2023.

It's a far cry from the heady days of the 2022 energy crisis, when heat pumps were seen as a key to a climate-neutral EU, independent of Russian gas.

Nikolaus J. Kurmayer spoke with the new boss of the heat pump association Paul Kelly, to find out what can be done.

Nuclear supporters focus on positives of new EU Commission

The nomination of nuclear sceptics Teresa Ribera and Dan Jørgensen to key posts within the next European Commission came as a shock to Europe's nuclear sector.

But as Paul Messad found out, the sector's supporters have stepped back and are now taking a more positive view of von der Leyen's new team.

Energy Charter Treaty: The end of the beginning

Climate activists celebrated the EU's departure from the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) this summer. They had long pushed for the move, arguing that it protected fossil fuel interests and slowed down the green transition.

But it turns out that this was only the first step.

Nikolaus J. Kurmayer attended a meeting of left-wing MEPs in Brussels on Monday, who are now turning their attention to the thousands of bilateral commitments that EU countries have signed, which have a similar effect to the ETC.

News in brief

Renewables still cheaper than fossil fuels
Yesterday's report by global renewables agency IRENA concluded that renewable energy remains competitive even if fossil fuel energy is returning to lower prices.

81% of the 473 GW installed globally in 2023 had lower costs than their fossil fuel alternatives between 2022 and 2023.

European countries registered the greatest decreases installed costs. For example PV costs decreased by -48% in Greece, -41% in Netherlands, –29% in Germany and –20% in France, “due to supply chain easing and reductions in commodity price inflation”.

Offshore wind costs have fallen worldwide, but to a lesser extent in Europe. Due to the small number of projects commissioned each year, “cost trends tend to be volatile.”

On onshore wind, Germany was the first country of the bloc, with 3 GW of new installed capacities in 2023. The average total installed cost for onshore wind projects in Europe fell from €2,791 per kW in 2010 to €1,583 euros per kW in 2023. [PM]

Avoiding the CBAM trap?
After meeting with representatives of Western Balkan countries in Berlin on Tuesday, Germany’s economy and climate minister Robert Habeck warned of a “CBAM trap” for the would-be EU members, whose economy continues to rely on coal.

Currently countries like Serbia and Bosnia can export electricity to the EU without having to pay a tariff on the carbon-intensity of their power, as long as they sufficiently integrate into the Union’s power market.

As previously reported, this is an incentive for countries to accelerate their to-date sluggish implementation of EU energy rules. [NK]

NGO report: Fossil fuel lobbyists and the Commission
NGO Transparency International this morning released a report focusing on the role of large fossil fuel companies in EU green decision-making.

The report tracked meetings between the European Commission and the seven largest fossil fuel companies: Shell, Total, Eni, Equinor, ExxonMobil, BP and Chevron.

Transparency International claims these organisations have attended 203 high-level meetings with the von der Leyen Commission between December 2019 and May of this year. 

This rises to 1033 meetings, when their wider networks, such as trade associations, are taken into account.

Over two-thirds of declared meetings concern Green Deal-relevant policy areas, and of these Green Deal meetings, 20% touch on hydrogen and carbon capture storage.

While a quick phase out of oil and gas may not align with the interests of fossil fuel companies, some commentators hope their skills and resources can be repurposed to support the green transition, for example by investing in renewables. [DC]

IEA recommendations on COP28 energy targets
Yesterday the International Energy Agency (IEA) published a report on how to implement the COP28 energy targets of the ‘United Arab Emirates Consensus’.

Signed by 200 countries at COP28 in Dubai, the agreement aims to achieve net zero emissions in the global energy sector by 2050, move away from fossil fuels, triple renewable energy capacity, double energy efficiency improvement rates by 2030, and accelerate the deployment of other low-emission technologies.

According to the report, countries must, for example, make a concerted effort to build and modernise 25 million kilometres of electricity grids by 2030 and develop 1,500 GW of energy storage capacity over the same period.

The report notes that if these COP28 energy targets were fully achieved, global emissions would be 10 billion tonnes lower by 2030, than otherwise forecast. [NC]

New deep decarbonisation modelling
NGO Carbon-Free Europe this morning published its latest 'Annual Decarbonisation Perspective' for 2024.

The report argues of the "risk of overly rigid targets" saying they may lack the "flexibility necessary for effective implementation and delivery." The report is also skeptical of technology-specific targets, saying they "creating the false perception that there is a single, uniform pathway to net-zero."

The modelling foresees an expanded nuclear fleet, capacity markets and 250 GW of fossil-gas compatible back-up power generation capacity. 

Carbon-Free Europe is funded by investor-backed Quadratic Climate Foundation, which has a mandate to tackle the ‘new climate reality’. This prioritises climate adaptation and the removal of carbon from the atmosphere, alongside rapid decarbonisation. [DC]

New report on EV sustainability calls for improved manufacturing. 
a new report on the sustainability and energy efficiency of electric vehicles (EVs) was published by the FIA European Bureau - a consumer body representing mobility clubs.

Sustainable EV manufacturing is a main focus.

The report stresses that the materials used in battery production determine the level of emissions, and that alternative battery chemistries such as cobalt-free lithium-ion batteries and sodium-ion batteries could lower EV manufacturing environmental impact.

It also underlines the importance of circularity, pointing to the use of recycled materials, such as steel and aluminum, and the implementation of “Design for Circularity”, as strategies to reduce manufacturing emissions.

Other aspects highlighted in the report are discrepancies in EV’s energy efficiency reporting, and the importance of accessible data on  battery life to increase consumer confidence. [BM]

NGOs: Commission should sanction Greece for oil and gas projects in protected marine areas
ClientEarth, WWF and Greenpeace Greece are pressing the European Commission to ensure that Greece is held to account for allowing companies to drill for oil and gas in protected marine areas, in what they say is a breach of European and national legislation.

The NGO’s lodged a complaint with the European Commission in December 2023, but now fear that the Commission is likely to dismiss their case.

The oil and gas projects are located in the Hellenic Trench, which stretches from the Ionian Sea to the Dodecanese. This area is rich in biodiversity, home to bottlenose dolphins, turtles and the main habitat of a group of endangered sperm whales. [NC]

Germany taken to court for failing to transpose pesticides directive
On Friday 20 September, the environmental NGO ClientEarth launched a legal action against the German government for failing to transpose the European directive on the sustainable use of pesticides into national law - 13 years after the rules were created.

The move comes at a time when new research is emerging on the global impact on agricultural yields of a decline in insect numbers. Between 1989 and 2014, flying insect populations fell by 76% in Germany, according to the NGO.

The case was brought before the Berlin-Brandenburg Higher Administrative Court against the German government and the Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture. [NC]

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Must Reads
News from the Capitals

NICOSIA | ATHENS. Cyprus signs agreement with Greece on ‘world’s longest’ subsea high-voltage cable. Greece and Cyprus have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to press ahead with a subsea electric cable linking continental Europe to the East Mediterranean, the energy ministries of the two countries said on Saturday. Read more.

ROME. Italy will formally present a proposal at a meeting in Brussels on Wednesday to bring forward to the first half of 2025 the review of the EU’s 2035 ban on combustion engine vehicles, currently scheduled for 2026, announced Italy’s Business and Made in Italy Minister Adolfo Urso. Read more.

WARSAW | BRATISLAVA. Von der Leyen pledges billions of euros for flood-stricken regions. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has pledged EU-funded aid to help repair the damage caused by recent floods as she visited the western Polish city of Wroclaw on Thursday. Read more.

SOFIA. Environmental groups call the Brussels-backed Danube project dangerous. Dozens of international environmental organisations have declared the European Commission-backed Danube Hydroelectric Project dangerous, which involves the construction of a dam and power plant on the Danube between the Bulgarian town of Nikopol and the Romanian town of Turnu Magurele. Read more.

BUDAPEST. Gazprom-friendly Hungary blames EU for failing to end Russian gas dependence. Hungary’s energy security chief on Wednesday slammed the European Union for not providing enough support to help smaller, landlocked countries move away from Russian natural gas. Read more.

ROME. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has pledged to push for the review of the European Green Deal, criticising its “ideological approach” and warning that it risks leading to deindustrialisation. Read more.

STOCKHOLM. Swedish environment commissioner “happy” but faces tough hearing on forestry, climate goals. Jessika Roswall’s appointment as European commissioner for the environment has been received very positively by the Swedish authorities, but her upcoming confirmation hearing is already shaping up to be tough. Read more.

MADRID. Sanchez hails ‘greatest-ever’ influence on Brussels after Ribera portfolio reveal. With Teresa Ribera getting what is set to be the highly coveted role of executive vice-presidency for clean, fair and competitive transition in von der Leyen’s newly proposed team, Spain could be on its way to having the most influence it has ever had in Brussels, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez boasted on Tuesday. Read more.

ATHENS. Greece satisfied with transport, tourism portfolio but EP hearing could be challenging. Centre-right Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis expressed his satisfaction with Greece’s transport and tourism portfolio allocation in the next Commission. However, the candidate for the role, Apostolos Tzitzikostas, faces a challenging task ahead of his European Parliament’s hearing. Read more.

LISBON. Portugal’s raging wildfires kill seven, cause damage. The wildfires that have been raging in mainland Portugal since Sunday, particularly in the central and northern regions, have left seven dead and at least 40 injured, affected dozens of properties and forced the closure of roads and motorways. Read more.

WARSAW. Poland says no immediate need to request EU aid for floods. Polish emergency services are fully equipped and well prepared to deal with the ongoing flood crisis, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Tuesday, adding that there was no immediate need to request the activation of the EU’s civil protection mechanism. Read more.

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[Edited by Owen Morgan] 

The Green Brief is run by Donagh CagneyNikolaus J. Kurmayer, Paul MessadNathan Canas and Bárbara Machado.

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