| | Wednesday, August 7, 2024 | | Grayson Rodriguez was scratched from his start Tuesday during warm-ups due to discomfort in his right lat. As of Tuesday evening, we have no sense of the severity of the injury, but as a general rule of thumb, you'll rarely go broke betting on the pessimistic side when it comes to pitching injuries. It's possible that the Orioles caught the issue before it became a significant injury, but I'll just note here that Rodriguez did miss around three months with a lat injury in 2022 when he was in the minors, an injury that ultimately delayed his MLB debut. | Hopefully, we'll get some clarity on the extent and nature of the injury, but if you need to look for a replacement for Rodriguez, you can consider Joe Musgrove or Eduardo Rodriguez, both of whom are available in 25% or more of CBS Fantasy leagues and should be back from the IL this week; Musgrove might be the best chance to replace Rodriguez's ceiling, though Shane Baz is available in a similar share of leagues and has plenty of upside of his own. In deeper leagues, you can look for the likes of Spencer Arrighetti, Paul Blackburn, or David Festa, who are available in 60-70% of leagues, though none of those options are likely to be more than just adequate. | Losing Grayson Rodriguez for a significant period of time would be a big blow for Fantasy players' hopes of winning a championship, not to mention the Orioles, but right now, all we can do is hope for the best. In the rest of today's newsletter, we've got the top IL stash rankings, plus all the rest of the news and standout performances from Tuesday's action you need to know about: | | The top IL stashes | | There are just under eight weeks left in the season, which means that any new injury, even a relatively minor one, might end up being a de facto season-ender for Fantasy -- especially for those of you in H2H points leagues, where the playoffs start several weeks before the actual season's end. | Every roster spot is more important than ever right now, especially since we'll reach a point -- and some teams might already be there -- where lineups are going to change even more, with boring, established veterans with no future with the team seeing less time in favor of younger players who might conceivably have more upside. That's a fact of life at the end of the baseball season, and it's made even tougher to navigate when we have big names missing time with injuries. | And we've got a lot of big names missing in action right now. Scott White ranked the top-45 IL stashes for CBSSports.com this week, and before we get to Tuesday's big standout performance, here's a quick rundown of the top tier of those IL stashes, the guys who are simply too valuable to drop in any leagues. Yes, even the ones where you don't have an IL spot available, necessarily: | - Mookie Betts – fractured wrist - should begin rehab assignment this week with an eye on returning next week
- Kyle Tucker – bruised shin - seems likely to return before September, but he's already missed longer than anyone expected
- Fernando Tatis – femoral stress reaction - uncommon baseball injury with unclear timeline, but team remains optimistic
- Julio Rodriguez – high ankle sprain - doing some linear running but has to master changing directions before return
- Riley Greene – strained hamstring - has taken batting practice but hasn't resumed running yet, still a week or two away
- Christian Walker – strained oblique - about a week into what was billed as a three-week timetable
- Michael Harris – strained hamstring - at least report, was confident he could return when eligible Aug. 14
- Christian Yelich – strained back - may need offseason surgery but will try to gut it out this year; no clear timetable
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto – strained rotator cuff - completed first bullpen session Saturday, perhaps a month from returning
- Jared Jones – strained lat - expected to begin rehab assignment soon with eye on late-August return
- Mason Miller – fractured finger - injury is to glove hand, has been throwing bullpen sessions and could return Friday
- Ranger Suarez – back soreness - threw bullpen session Monday, likely to return next week
- Triston Casas – cartilage tear in rib - on rehab assignment, which figures to be extensive given length of absence
- Carlos Correa – plantar fasciitis - able to jog and field but will need to sprint without pain before returning
| | | News and Notes | Dylan Cease (and Bailey Falter) got screwed by the weather today, as Cease pitched just one inning before a rain delay ended his start. Would expect he's going to get bumped up in the rotation this week to make up for it, but still, frustrating, since it seemed clear they wouldn't be able to get through the game without a pause. | Mason Miller (finger) will return from the IL Wednesday, as hoped. | Starling Marte (knee) will start a minor-league rehab assignment Wednesday at Low-A St. Lucie, as he continues to work his way back from a bone bruise in his right knee. He should be back in the next week or so, though whether he'll run as much as he was (and, thus, whether he'll have as much Fantasy appeal) remains to be seen. | Luis Rengifo (wrist) underwent season-ending wrist surgery Tuesday. Rengifo was batting .300 with plenty of speed and even decent power before the injury, and he should be healthy in time for the start of Spring Training. Zachary Neto will likely continue to hit toward the top of the lineup for the Angels with Neto out of the picture, though I guess maybe Anthony Rendon's return from the IL Wednesday might change that? I hope not. | Byron Buxton (back) missed his second straight game Tuesday against the White Sox as a result of running into the wall during Sunday's game. Guess it wasn't quite as precautionary as they said Sunday when he left the game. | Joe Musgrove (elbow) will return from the IL at some point during the team's current road trip, though not during the current series in Pittsburgh. That puts him on track to return this weekend with a nice soft landing against the Marlins. Musgrove has been out since late May due to bone spurs in his right elbow, and I'd prefer to not have to start him in his first outing, but given the matchup, it's not the worst idea. | Justin Verlander (neck) will likely make a minor-league rehab start this weekend at Triple-A if he can make it through another bullpen session Wednesday without incident. It's not clear if he'll need more than the one rehab start, but his return is looming, at least. | | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (shoulder) through a bullpen session Tuesday and will likely face hitters for the first time since May sometime later this week, with a possible return coming later in August, perhaps. | Julio Rodriguez (ankle) has been cleared to do some light running in addition to on-field batting practice, but he remains without a timetable to return from his high-ankle injury. He may need a rehab assignment if his absence continues to drag on, though that hasn't been officially determined yet. | Clarke Schmidt (lat) pitched in a live batting practice session Tuesday and told reporters after that he is willing to return in a bullpen role if that's what the Yankees want. I'd be surprised if they go that way, because Schmidt's return will give the Yankees added flexibility to limit Luis Gil's innings down the stretch, but it's possible he gets used in a hybrid role that makes Schmidt's early-season breakout less sustainable. | The Diamondbacks placed catcher Gabriel Moreno on the IL Tuesday with a left adductor strain and selected the contract of Adrian Del Castillo from Triple-A. Castillo isn't a big-name prospect, but he has hit .319/.403/.608 in Triple-A this season, which is impressive even in the inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League. He's worth a look in deeper two-catcher leagues. | Michael Harris (hamstring) is set to begin a rehab assignment Tuesday at Triple-A, with the hopes he will be ready to return from the IL when eligible on Aug. 14. | Kyle Freeland left Tuesday's start against the Mets with a blister on his left index finger. | Kerry Carpenter (back) will begin a minor-league rehab assignment Tuesday at Triple-A, and Riley Greene (hamstring) could be right behind him after doing batting practice on the field Tuesday. | Taylor Ward was placed on the paternity list Tuesday and will likely miss a couple of games. | Reese Olson (shoulder) began a throwing program, a sign he still has a chance to return from the IL this season. It might be late, but Olson can be worth stashing if you have the roster spot to play with. | The Astros promoted infield Zach Dezenzo from Triple-A Tuesday. He has only played 11 games at Triple-A, but was hitting .391 with four homers and three steals, and has been a big riser since starting the season in High-A, and has a bit of five-category appeal in deeper leagues if he can play regularly for the Astros. | The Yankees and Angels were rained out Tuesday, pushing Luis Gil back a day and giving Will Warren a chance to start Game 2 of a doubleheader Wednesday. | James McCann underwent a "nasal reduction realignment procedure" after suffering a broken nose (that he played through!) last week. But he is somehow not on the IL? | Matt Brash (elbow) has been cleared to start a throwing program. His season is done as he tries to work his way back from Tommy John surgery in May, but maybe he could be ready for the start of next season. He has closer upside if he can ever get healthy. | Christian Scott (elbow) still hasn't been cleared to resume throwing since being shut down in July with a right UCL sprain. There is a hope he will be cleared in the coming days, but I'm not expecting any kind of impact from him the rest of this regular season. | Heliot Ramos returned from his thumb injury to go 2 for 5 with a steal and a homer, just his second in 15 games since the All-Star break. | Tuesday's standouts | Luis Castillo, Mariners vs. DET: 6 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – Castillo has kind of regressed a little bit across the board this season, but the biggest change has been with his four-seamer, which has gone from being an elite swing-and-miss pitch to just a decent one, a big change for someone who generates around half of his strikeouts with that pitch. He had it working well for him Tuesday, however, generating six whiffs on 14 swings, while adding five with his slider. It has been a frustrating season for Castillo, but he's been getting much better results of late, so let's hope this is the start of him unlocking some of that missing strikeout upside, too. | Pablo Lopez, Twins @CHC: 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – Lopez just didn't seem to have it in this one, generating just six swinging strikes on 88 pitches, none of them on his two breaking balls. I know some of you might still be a bit jumpy about Lopez given his early-season struggles, but this was the first time he allowed more than two runs in more than a month, so I'm very much inclined to write it off. Even when he was struggling, Lopez was still generating plenty of swinging strikes, so I think it's fair to just write this one off as an outlier bad night. | Framber Valdez, Astros @TEX: 8.2 IP, 1, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – Valdez continues to lead with his curveball, and while it didn't lead to many strikeouts in this one, he generated 16 swinging strikes and a ton of weak contact as he got to within one Corey Seager swing with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning from a no-hitter. Has been terrific pretty much all season, and his new curveball-forward approach led to a significant rise in strikeouts in July, as he had 40 in 31 innings in that month. I'm not sure I expect the strikeouts to remain that high the rest of the way, but I do expect him to continue to be a difference-maker for Fantasy. | Shota Imanaga, Cubs vs. MIN: 7 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K – Fastballs up, splitters down. Imanaga doesn't have a particularly complicated approach to pitching, and in this one, 87 of his 92 pitches were one of those, resulting in 18 of his 19 whiffs. I was worried that his flyball-heavy approach combined with how he pounds the strike zone with his fastball might come back to bite Imanaga, but outside of a few ugly stretches with homers, he's remained a pretty dominant option for Fantasy. That splitter is a legitimately special pitch, and some nights, it's all he needs. | Sonny Gray, Cardinals vs. TB: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – Even when Gray was struggling in July, he really wasn't getting killed with homers for the most part, and he continued to generate bunches of strikeouts without giving up many walks, which is why I never really worried. And now he's opened August with 15 strikeouts, two walks, and just four earned runs in 14 innings across two starts. There's still some volatility in this profile – he's Sonny Gray, after all – but I really don't see much reason to think he won't be a must-start pitcher the rest of the way. | Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies @LAD: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K – You'd like to see more strikeouts, but given the matchup, I'm certainly not going to complain about this result. It was a nice bounceback outing for Sanchez, who gave up six runs in his previous outing and had been struggling in July overall. The strikeouts haven't been there over the past couple of months, but Sanchez's walk rate remains terrific, as does his batted-ball profile, so he should remain well worth using in Fantasy moving forward. | Chris Bassitt, Blue Jays vs. BAL – 7 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K – Where the heck did this come from? Bassitt had a 7.01 ERA in July and hasn't had an outing with more than six strikeouts since June, so of course he went out and did this against the Orioles of all teams. He had his usual eight-pitch mix in this one and he probably got pretty lucky not to give up more runs, seeing as he gave up 14 batted balls with an average exit velocity of 95.4 mph. But for all that hard contact, only five of those batted balls had an expected batting average of better than .500, as he generated plenty of grounders or relatively harmless-but-well-struck fly balls. It's probably not a sustainable approach for most pitchers, except it's how Bassitt has put up a 3.46 ERA since 2018. Don't expect these kinds of strikeout numbers consistently, but you should feel pretty good if you didn't drop Bassitt after his miserable July. | Seth Lugo, Royals vs. BOS: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 4 K – Good analysts strive to avoid confirmation bias, and I'm really trying to be a good analyst here. If you've been reading this newsletter all season, you know I've been a Lugo skeptic all along, so I'll just point out that he was let down by some defensive miscues and still made it to the sixth inning having allowed just one earned run before the Red Sox chased him with three more runs in that inning. Still, after showing some strikeout upside in May and June, Lugo has just 26 in his past 39.2 innings dating back to July 1, with a 4.31 ERA in six starts in that span. He's got a 3.85 xERA for the season as a whole, so I don't really think this is a fluke. That being said, there probably isn't much difference between him and Chris Bassitt, either. See, I'm not too harsh on him, am I? | (I'm being told nobody will think that was a compliment to Lugo.) | Nick Lodolo, Reds @MIA: 6 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 7 K – Good start, but the curveball still isn't quite where it needs to be, generating just four whiffs and just a 25% out-of-zone swing rate. I don't know if he's tipping the pitch or what, because the movement profile mostly looks the same, but that pitch just hasn't been as effective lately. This probably wouldn't have gone well if Lodolo were facing a better offense, so I remain underwhelmed by what we've seen from Lodolo. | Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers vs. PHI: 4.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K – That line still isn't quite what we're hoping for, but that's mostly about a lack of volume because Kershaw pitched well in this one against a very tough matchup. He had the slider and curveball working, generating nine of his 10 swinging strikes with them, and this now gives him two solid outings in three so far. He probably isn't worth starting in Fantasy yet, but Kershaw is certainly giving us reason to believe he can be useful down the stretch as he gets more comfortable after his long layoff. | Jeffrey Springs, Rays @STL: 5 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 3 K – Springs has never exactly been a hard thrower, but he did average 91.7 mph with his fastball in 2023, 1 mph up from where he sat Wednesday. The good news is, that's improvement from his debut, and a sign that Springs may yet be able to figure this thing out yet. But he hasn't done it so far, and the fastball seems to be the main problem – he gave up seven balls in play with a 94.7 mph average exit velocity while generating zero swings and misses on 34 of them. He's failed to produce against the Marlins and Cardinals, two pretty good matchups to open his season, and that makes it awfully hard to use him against anyone until he shows us more than this. The good news is, he did have 10 swinging strikes on 53 non-fastballs. Baby steps. | Hayden Birdsong, Giants @WAS: 2 IP, 5 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 1 K – This was a lousy start, made even worse by C.J. Abrams homering off a pitch that was about as high as his chin. Birdsong had shown real upside in his previous couple of starts, striking out 20 in 11 innings of work, but he just didn't have anything working in this one, generating just two swinging strikes on 66 pitches. I certainly don't want to give up entirely on Birdsong, but there's no reason to go out and add him after a start like this. | Luis Severino, Mets @COL: 5 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 5 K – I'm not much of a believer in Severino, but the "@COL" part of this makes it easy to be forgiving here. He threw just 17 non-fastballs in this game, and the pitches just weren't moving like they normally do for him, which is pretty typical in the thin air of Denver. If you haven't dropped Severino by now, today's start shouldn't be a reason to. | Albert Suarez, Orioles @TOR: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – That's really a heck of a performance for someone who didn't even know he was going to be starting Tuesday until minutes before the first pitch. Suarez could stick in the Orioles rotation if Rodriguez has to miss time, and he could be useful for deeper leagues with that offense backing him up, especially at home. | Tyler Mahle, Rangers vs. HOU: 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – Mahle's velocity was more or less where it was in 2023, but that's not really the baseline we're judging him by. If we're going to get excited about Mahle, it would be based on what he showed in 2021, when he had a 3.75 ERA and 210 strikeouts – and averaged 94 mph with his four-seamer. He was down to 92.2 Tuesday, and while it was his first start back from Tommy John surgery, he didn't give us much to be excited about. I'm not giving up on him, certainly, but I don't see much reason to rush out and add Mahle, either. | Colin Rea, Brewers @ATL: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – Well, where did that come from? Rea has had a couple of eight-strikeout outings prior to this one, but this was a season-high and his most since April 30 of last season. It didn't coincide with an increase in velocity, a significant change in pitch mix, or even a bunch of whiffs – he had 10 on 92 pitches, which is fine. Which is all to say, as impressive as this start was, I don't see much reason to read into it moving forward. In fact, given Rea's 4.92 xERA for the season, I think your best bet is probably to just ignore this performance. | Max Meyer , Marlins vs. CIN: 4 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 2 K – Man cannot live on bread alone, and major-league pitchers can't live on sliders alone. And right now, that's all Meyer has, as it generated five of his six swinging strikes in this one. Meyer's velocity on his fastball is down a bit from his promising 2022 debut, and that's apparently enough to render him wholly ineffective right now. He went down to Triple-A ostensibly to work on his whole arsenal, but his changeup failed to generate a single whiff along with a couple of batted balls over 100 mph in this one. I was excited to see what Meyer could do upon his return to the majors, but he hasn't gone more than five innings in any of his three starts, with just 12 strikeouts to six walks in 13 innings, there just isn't much to get excited about right now. | Keider Montero, Tigers @SEA: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – It's easy to dismiss this as the result of a matchup with the most strikeout-prone team in baseball history, and that probably explains most of it. But I will point out that, while Montero has mostly struggled, he has shown some swing-and-miss upside, with both his soldier and changeup sporting whiff rates over 30% this season. He got 12 on 85 pitches Tuesday, including at least two with his top four pitches, and there might be some upside here, even if I'm not running out to add Montero in all but the deepest leagues. | Jonathan Cannon, White Sox @OAK: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – That is now three quality starts in a row for Cannon, who has actually thrown six innings or more in six straight starts, too. He's still not showing much reason to be excited for Fantasy despite the decent results of late, with just 19 strikeouts to 13 walks in 37 innings since the start of June – especially on a team that will provide precious few opportunities for wins – but the White Sox may have found a useful back-of-rotation piece here. Hooray for small victories! | Beau Brieske, RP, Tigers – Brieske came out for the save in the ninth inning after Jason Foley worked the eighth and ran into trouble, needing to be bailed out by Tyler Holton , who got the save, his fourth. The Tigers have soured on Foley as their ninth-inning option, but nobody else has really stepped up – Holton has his four saves, but he's primarily been a multi-inning reliever for them, so I don't know if I want to buy into him as the option. It might just be a jumbled mess that Fantasy players should stay away from. | | | | | | | | Tune into CBS Sports Network at 7 PM ET to watch Detroit City FC take the pitch against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC . Watch Live | | Playoffs have arrived to the BIG3 stage! Watch a showdown with triple the excitement this Sunday at 1 PM ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+. Watch Live |
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