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Saturday, September 2, 2023
I've got incredible timing. The last time we did our pick-by-pick series, where each member of the Fantasy Football Today team walks you through how to draft from each spot, I took Cooper Kupp mere hours before he left training camp with a hamstring injury. This time, I once again took Kupp with the No. 5 overall pick, only for him to leave practice yet again with a setback of that injury, which now puts his availability for Week 1 in doubt.
You'll see Kupp going off the board with that No. 5 pick here, but you won't have to take him there in your drafts this weekend. In fact, if you're picking fifth, you might be able to wait until the second round to snag him -- and I'd probably pounce if he's still there at 19th overall. That's a few spots higher than where I actually rank him in my top 200, but when push comes to shove, I'll have a hard time passing on who I think is the most high-upside player in Fantasy if he's there in the second half of the second round. 
I'm still pretty happy with the team I drafted from the No. 5 spot, which you can see below, but I'd like it even more if, instead of Kupp and Derrick Henry, it was Bijan Robinson and Kupp. Both could be championship duos, but there might be a little less risk with the young guy at the top. Or even Austin Ekeler and Kupp, who carries some age-related risk but has also been the top RB each of the past two seasons.
Our pick-by-pick walkthrough is below, with Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, Heath Cummings, Dan Schneier, Adam Aizer and myself going through our picks from each spot in the draft to help you figure out how you might approach them. Your team from No. 1 overall won't look exactly like Jamey's, but his piece will give you an idea of how you might expect to see your team come out, and potentially which pitfalls might come up along the way.
Here's our last pick-by-pick series for the final weekend of draft season: 
Pick-by-pick advice
Jamey Eisenberg:"Whenever I have the No. 1 overall pick, I like to start my roster with three receivers in a row. I really like this build since the top-tier wide receivers disappear quickly in most competitive leagues, and the running back depth in the middle rounds is robust.
Before we talk strategy, let's talk about the first pick. Don't overthink things and just draft Justin Jefferson."
The roster
1.1: Justin Jefferson, WR, MIN
2.12: DeVonta Smith, WR, PHI
3.1: Chris Olave, WR, NO
4.12: Diontae Johnson, WR, PIT
5.1: J.K. Dobbins, RB, BAL
6.12: Alvin Kamara, RB, NO
7.1: James Conner, RB, ARI
8.12: Antonio Gibson, RB, WAS
9.1: A.J. Dillon, RB, GB
10.12: Dak Prescott, QB, DAL
11.1: Evan Engram, TE, JAC
12.12: De'Von Achane, RB, MIA
13.1: Jake Ferguson, TE, DAL
14.12: Jared Goff, QB, DET
Adam Aizer: "Know your league! I'll explain why this team is a lesson in understanding how your leaguemates draft. Specifically, do your buddies take QBs early (or just at their ADP) or do they wait at QB? It could make all the difference. Before we get into that, let's start at the top.
With Austin Ekeler entering his age 28 season and mild concerns about Christian McCaffrey's injury history and workload, I'm perfectly comfortable drafting Ja'Marr Chase second overall."
The roster
1.2: Ja'Marr Chase, WR, CIN
2.11: Josh Allen, QB, BUF
3.2: Joe Mixon, RB, CIN
4.11: Darren Waller, TE, NYG
5.2: Chris Godwin, WR, TB
6.11: David Montgomery, RB, DET
7.2: Mike Williams , WR, LAC
8.11: Romeo Doubs, WR, GB
9.2: Jaylen Warren, RB, PIT
10.11: Deon Jackson, RB, IND
11.2: Quentin Johnston, WR, LAC
12.11: Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE, TEN
13.2: Kyler Murray , QB, ARI
14.11: Van Jefferson, WR, LAR
Dave Richard: "The easiest part of picking third overall is who you take first. Justin Jefferson figures to be the consensus 1.01, so you're probably looking at one of Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler or Ja'Marr Chase. And guess what?! You're likely to pick from two of these four! That's great. Before you draft, rank them (I just listed them in my preferred order).
The hardest part of picking third overall is who you take with your next two picks. Late Round 2 and early Round 3 offer plenty of good players, but it's still tricky to deal with. Per our PPR Average Draft Position (ADP), you should expect to find in Round 2 a running back like Josh Jacobs or Joe Mixon, or a receiver along the lines of Garrett Wilson, Amon-Ra St. Brown or Jaylen Waddle. But probably not a quarterback."
The roster
1.03 Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF
2.10 Jalen Hurts, QB, PHI
3.03 Calvin Ridley, WR, JAC
4.10 Dameon Pierce, RB, HOU
5.03 Drake London, WR, ATL
6.10 Jordan Addison, WR, MIN
7.03 Mike Evans, WR, TB
8.10 D'Andre Swift, RB, PHI
9.03 Brian Robinson Jr., RB, WAS
10.10 Dalton Kincaid , TE, BUF
11.03 Rashaad Penny, RB, PHI
12.10 Elijah Mitchell, RB, SF
13.03 Evan Hull , RB, IND
14.10 Greg Dulcich, TE, DEN
Heath Cummings: "A lot has changed in the month since we last did this pick-by-pick exercise in a PPR version. But, at least from the four spot, a few things haven't changed at all. Just like our last run, I took Tyreek Hill at pick 1.04 and Christian Kirk at pick 5.04. I also landed Samaje Perine in both drafts, though he went a round later in the most recent version due to the positive developments around Javonte Williams' knee.
I'm higher on Hill than most, and there's a good chance you'll have a shot at him picking anywhere in the top seven."
The roster
1.04: Tyreek Hill, WR, MIA
2.09: Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC
3.04: Tee Higgins, WR, CIN
4.09: Alexander Mattison, RB, MIN
5.04: Christian Kirk, WR, JAC
6.09: Najee Harris, RB, PIT
7.04: Gabe Davis, WR, BUF
8.09: David Njoku, TE, CLE
9.04: Samaje Perine, RB, DEN
10.09: Rashod Bateman, WR, BAL
11.04: Jeff Wilson, RB, MIA
12.09: Raheem Mostert , RB, MIA
13.04 D.J. Chark, WR, CAR
14.09: Tyjae Spears, RB, TEN
Chris Towers: "Here's a little peek behind the curtain: When we did our first Fantasy Football Pick-by-Pick series back in July, I had the No. 5 pick and took a then-healthy Cooper Kupp, only for him to suffer a hamstring injury within 24 hours of the draft. When we decided to update that Pick-by-Pick series for the final weekend of draft season, I also had the No. 5 pick, and I also took Kupp. And, wouldn't you know it, he hurt his hamstring again less than 24 hours after the draft.
That's the risk you run when you draft an older player, and especially an older player who is already working his way back from an injury before the season even starts. Kupp was making progress from that initial hamstring injury and looked like he was on pace to play in Week 1, so I took the chance on a guy I think, when healthy, is probably the best player in Fantasy."
The roster
1.5: Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
2.8: Derrick Henry, RB, TEN
3.5: Keenan Allen, WR, LAC
4.8: T.J. Hockenson, TE, MIN
5.5: Terry McLaurin, WR, WAS
6.8: Javonte Williams, RB, DEN
7.5: Anthony Richardson, QB, IND
8.8: Brandin Cooks, WR, DAL
9.5: Dalvin Cook , RB, NYJ
10.8: Kendre Miller, RB, NO
11.5: Rondale Moore, WR, ARI
12.8: Matthew Stafford , QB, LAR
13.5: Zay Jones, WR, JAC
14.8: Ty Chandler, RB, MIN
Dan Schneier: "When drafting from the sixth position in a PPR league, I've typically wished for just one thing to happen in the five picks before mine -- can Cooper Kupp come off the board. please? It's not that I don't see the upside in drafting Kupp, who was dominant on a per-game basis in 2022 and 2021, but I am concerned with the downside after he suffered a soft tissue (hamstring) injury earlier this summer and it flared up again in recent days. 
I subscribe to one simple theory about the first round of my Fantasy Football drafts and it's the one time I'm not necessarily swinging for upside and league winning picks. It's the opposite -- in Round 1, I want the safe foundation type players."
The roster
1.06: Austin Ekeler, RB, LAC
2.07: Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA
3.06: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET
4.07: Justin Herbert, QB, LAC
5.06: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF
6.07: Dallas Goedert, TE, PHI
7.06: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, SEA
8.07: Courtland Sutton , WR, DEN
9.06: Zach Charbonnet, RB, SEA
10.07: Jerick McKinnon, RB, KC
11.06: Jakobi Meyers , WR, LV
12.07: Aaron Rodgers, QB, NYJ
13.06: Joshua Kelley, RB, LAC
14.07: Jameson Williams , WR, DET
Jamey Eisenberg: "Be flexible. That's the best advice I can tell someone on Draft Day. You never know what direction a draft will go, and you want to be prepared when something unexpected happens.
This team at No. 7 overall is a great example of that in a PPR league. I wasn't surprised to get Bijan Robinson in the first round because this is the range he should go, and I like him better than Travis Kelce, Saquon Barkley and Stefon Diggs, who were the three players selected after Robinson."
The roster
1.7: Bijan Robinson, RB, ATL
2.6: Davante Adams, WR, LV
3.7: Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, NE
4.6: Amari Cooper, WR, CLE
5.7: Jahan Dotson, WR, WAS
6.6: George Pickens, WR, PIT
7.7: Cam Akers, RB, LAR
8.6: Zay Flowers, WR, BAL
9.7: Roschon Johnson, RB, CHI
10.6: Deshaun Watson , QB, CLE
11.7: Sam LaPorta, TE, DET
12.6: Juwan Johnson, TE, NO
13.7: Tyler Allgeier, RB, ATL
14.6: Kyren Williams, RB, LAR
Adam Aizer: "How do you feel about starting your Fantasy team with a soon-to-be 34-year old who averaged fewer PPR Fantasy points than several players drafted after him? I feel great about it! I drafted Travis Kelce with pick No. 8, and this ended up being one of the best teams I have drafted. I started old, but most of my roster is young and ready for breakout seasons.
Kelce is a beast with no serious target competition, the best QB in the NFL and almost no downside. Age is the only drawback with Kelce, and that's why I selected Garrett Wilson in Round 2 instead of Davante Adams."
The roster
1.8: Travis Kelce, TE, KC
2.5: Garrett Wilson, WR, NYJ
3.8: Travis Etienne, RB, JAC
4.5: Christian Watson, WR, GB
5.8: Kenneth Walker, RB, SEA
6.5: Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAC
7.8: Marquise Brown, WR, ARI
8.5: Khalil Herbert RB, CHI
9.8: Treylon Burks, WR, TEN
10.5: Jamaal Williams, RB, NO
11.8: Daniel Jones , QB, NYG
12.5: Jonathan Mingo, WR, CAR
13.8: Damien Harris, RB, BUF
14.5: Isaiah Hodgins , WR, NYG
Dave Richard: "Before I even entered the draft room, I thought about what I would do if Bijan Robinson or Travis Kelce fell to me at ninth overall.
I decided I would take Robinson first -- he's assumed to be a highly-used player in Atlanta's run-focused offense, but not just as a ball-carrier. Robinson can also work as a receiver and has legit potential for 250 carries and 50 receptions in 2023. I've seen him practice and I've watched his preseason film and I cannot help myself, he is a very, very talented player."
The roster
1.09 Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG
2.04 A.J. Brown, WR, PHI
3.09 Mark Andrews, TE, BAL
4.04 D.J. Moore, WR, CHI
5.09 Justin Fields, QB, CHI
6.04 Rachaad White, RB, TB
7.09 Michael Thomas , WR, NO
8.04 Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC
9.09 JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, NE
10.04 Kenneth Gainwell , RB, PHI
11.09 Odell Beckham Jr., WR, BAL
12.04 Ezekiel Elliott, RB, NE
13.09 Rashee Rice , WR, KC
14.04 Sean Tucker, RB, TB
Heath Cummings: "The last time we did this pick-by-pick exercise, I took Miles Sanders at 3.10. This time I tried to get cute and see if he would fall to early Round 4, because I've found him available at the end of Round 4 in a lot of recent drafts. Well, he didn't make it back. Chris Towers took him at 3.11. At the bottom of this article you'll find a section called "pick I might regret". Missing out on Sanders isn't there because I already do regret it.
Why are Chris and I so much higher on Sanders than other analysts? Other than the fact that he's coming off a 1,300-yard season with 11 touchdowns? Because the Panthers paid Sanders like someone they expect to be a feature back, they've talked all offseason about using him as a feature back, and his new running backs coach treated him like a feature back the last time they were together."
The roster
1.10: Stefon Diggs, WR, BUF
2.03: CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL
3.10: Aaron Jones, RB, GB
4.03: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, TEN
5:10: James Cook, RB, BUF
6.03: Breece Hall, RB, NYJ
7.10: Jonathan Taylor , RB, IND
8.03: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, MIA
9.10: Pat Freiermuth, TE, PIT
10.03: Nico Collins , WR, HOU
11.10: Kirk Cousins, QB, MIN
12.03: Jayden Reed, WR, GB
13.10: Dalton Schultz , TE, HOU
14.03: Justyn Ross, WR, KC
Chris Towers: "Now that Josh Jacobs has signed his contract and reported to the Raiders, what is the argument against him supposed to be? He was the No. 3 RB in Fantasy a year ago and returns to the same offense, with zero remaining concerns about his availability for Week 1 and beyond, and yet his price hasn't really changed much. I'm taking the value.
In 97 drafts since news of his signing, Jacobs' ADP in NFC leagues sits at 23.9; before that, his ADP was 29.5. That's not nothing, but it still feels like a pretty steep discount, even in a season when RB prices are notably cheaper than they've historically been. He's my No. 8 overall player, and I'm happy to take him anytime he's available, such as when I got the No. 11 pick in our recent pick-by-pick series."
The roster
1.11: Josh Jacobs, RB, LV
2.2: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, DET
3.11: Miles Sanders, RB, CAR
4.2: Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL
5.11: Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA
6.2: Jerry Jeudy, WR, DEN
7.11: Skyy Moore, WR, KC
8.2: George Kittle, TE, SF
9.11: Marvin Mims, WR, DEN
10.2: Adam Thielen, WR, CAR
11.11: Tank Dell, WR, HOU
12.2: Zack Moss, RB, IND
13.11: Devin Singletary, RB, HOU
14.2: Michael Wilson, WR, ARI
Dan Schneier: "Times have changed and the Fantasy Football landscape for 2023 is a lot different than 2022 and even more different than the mid 2010s. What has changed the most is how often we're seeing wide receivers come off the board in the first round and through the first three rounds. In this PPR draft I would have preferred to start my build with wide receivers, but I found more value in the idea of zigging while others zagged.
When both Nick Chubb and Tony Pollard fell to me at No. 12 overall -- two players I have ranked inside my top-12 overall -- I passed on the CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Browns of the world to start my build with two running backs. Funny enough, these were the exact two running backs I landed on when we did this series last month and I had the 1.12."
The roster
1.12: Nick Chubb, RB, CLE
2.1: Tony Pollard, RB, DAL
3.12: DK Metcalf, WR, SEA
4.1: Deebo Samuel, WR, SF
5.12: Joe Burrow, QB, CIN
6.1: Kyle Pitts TE, ATL
7.12: Michael Pittman, WR, IND
8.1: Elijah Moore, WR, CLE
9.12: Kadarius Toney, WR, KC
10.1: Tank Bigsby, RB, JAC
11.12: Clyde Edwards-Helaire , RB, KC
12.1: Geno Smith, QB, SEA
13.12: Tyler Boyd, WR, CIN
14.1: Deuce Vaughn, RB, DAL
 
 
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