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| Thursday, December 23, 2021 |
| It often seems like Bruce Arians only trusts Ronald Jones begrudgingly, when he doesn't really have another choice. Well, he doesn't have another choice for Week 16, and that means Jones is actually one of the best running back options for Week 16 in the whole league. |
| I ranked him as a top-10 RB yesterday, and Wednesday Jamey Eisenberg named him Start of the Week for this weekend's matchup against the Panthers. That's not the easiest matchup in the world, but if Jones played the way he did last season, that probably doesn't matter much – he averaged 18.95 PPR points per game in four games without Fournette in 2020. |
| I don't expect Jones to repeat that, necessarily, but I also don't expect the addition of Le'Veon Bell to do much besides limit his usage on passing downs, which is to be expected with Jones anyway. Jones is in a great spot to be a potential league-winner down the stretch, and if you've got him on your roster, consider yourself lucky. |
| Lucky, at least in part, because you have at least one lineup decision you don't really have to think about. At this point in this season, that counts for a lot, given how much uncertainty there is at just about every position right now. There are over 150 players on the COVID list in addition to our usual number of injuries, and the threat of re-scheduled games once again looms large over everything. |
| Which is all to say, make sure you're staying on top of things this week. This newsletter is a good way to do that, but with how things look right now, there are going to be a ton of moving pieces all over the NFL throughout the week, so make sure you're subscribed to Fantasy Football Today podcast and YouTube channel to keep up with our reactions to all of the news you need to know about. |
| In the rest of today's newsletter, we're going to take a look at more of Jamey's Week 16 picks from his Start 'Em & Sit 'Em column, plus some of the players Dave Richard is highlighting in his <em>Starts, Sits, Sleepers & Busts</em> column . Plus, updates on all of the injury and COVID situations you need to know about as we get set to kick off this week with trips to the Fantasy championships on the line tonight with the 49ers facing the Titans. |
| Here's what you need to be prepared for it: |
Week 16 Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: QB | RB | WRStarts, Sits, Sleepers and BustsWeek 16 Position Previews: QB | RB | WR | TE
My Week 16 Rankings: Flex Top 150 | QB | RB | WR | TE |
| Keep an eye out for tomorrow's newsletter, where I'll preview every game this week, including full injury report updates from around the league. Here's what else today's newsletter will cover: |
| 👍Start 'Em & Sit 'Em👎 1️⃣6️⃣ Dave Richard's Week 16 Preview🚑Week 16 Injury Watch |
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| 👍Start 'Em & Sit 'Em👎 |
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| Quarterbacks |
| Start 'Em: Jalen Hurts and Matthew Stafford |
| "Hurts should stay hot in Week 16 against the Giants, who have allowed three of the past five opposing quarterbacks to score at least 21 Fantasy points. Hurts only scored six Fantasy points against the Giants in Week 12, but he ran for 77 yards in that outing. I have faith Hurts will do dramatically better in the rematch this week." |
| Sit 'Em: Tua Tagovailoa and Cam Newton |
| "The Saints defense has been on a tear recently, holding three quarterbacks in a row to 13 Fantasy points or less, including Prescott in Week 13 and Tom Brady in Week 15 (Zach Wilson was the other one). Tagovailoa has played well recently in helping Miami win six games in a row, but he's scored 16 Fantasy points or less in two of his past three games." |
| Running Backs |
| Start 'Em: Miles Sanders and James Robinson |
| "The only thing missing for Sanders right now is touchdowns since he hasn't scored yet this year. Hopefully, that happens this week. He's coming off a career-high 131 rushing yards on 18 carries in Tuesday's win against Washington where he became the first Eagles player with back-to-back 100-yard rushing games since LeSean McCoy in 2014. He scored at least 16 PPR points in each game, and this Philadelphia team is dominating opponents on the ground." |
| Sit 'Em: Jeff Wilson and Duke Johnson |
| "Only one running back has scored against Tennessee since Week 10, and no running back has more than 70 rushing yards against the Titans since Week 5, including matchups with Jonathan Taylor, James Robinson and Najee Harris. Deebo Samuel remains a factor in the backfield, and Wilson is a flex option at best, with his value higher in non-PPR leagues." |
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| Wide Receivers |
| Start 'Em: Antonio Brown and Russell Gage |
| "Only one running back has scored against Tennessee since Week 10, and no running back has more than 70 rushing yards against the Titans since Week 5, including matchups with Jonathan Taylor, James Robinson and Najee Harris. Deebo Samuel remains a factor in the backfield, and Elijah Mitchell (knee) has an outside shot to play this week. Wilson is a flex option at best, with his value higher in non-PPR leagues." |
| Sit 'Em: DeVonta Smith and Jerry Jeudy |
| "I love Smith's potential, and he can always find the end zone on a given week (he even had an errant endzone target in Week 15 against Washington). But he's just not producing as a Fantasy receiver, and he's not worth trusting in Week 16 against the Giants. He hasn't scored a touchdown in four games in a row, and he's scored 10 PPR points or less in each outing over that span." |
| Tight Ends |
| Start 'Em: Zach ErtzSit 'Em: Foster Moreau |
| "In the first game with DeAndre Hopkins (knee) on injured reserve in Week 15 at Detroit, Ertz had six catches for 74 yards on 11 targets. He has 18 targets in his past two games, and he seems to be in rhythm with Kyler Murray right now. This is a great matchup against the Colts, who have allowed three tight ends to score at least 14 PPR points against them in their past four games." |
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| DSTs |
| Start 'Em: Chargers at HOUSit 'Em: Cardinals vs. IND |
| 1️⃣6️⃣ Dave Richard's Week 16 Preview |
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| There are the obvious calls, and then there are the ones you need help with. Dave Richard goes through each game to identify the most interesting matchups and biggest lineup dilemmas for Week 16. Here are some of his top picks for this week. You can find the rest of his advice for Week 16 here. |
| Starts |
| Michael Pittman @ARI -- "Please note that before his ejection, Pittman had five targets on the 11 routes he ran. He's obviously their best pass-catcher and would certainly see a lot of throws from Wentz if the Colts found themselves trailing or in a competitive matchup. The Cardinals pass defense has started to struggle lately, allowing five touchdowns and three 75-plus-yard performances to wide receivers in their past two games. On the year, Arizona 's given up 19 touchdowns to receivers, just not many to No. 1 types like Pittman. Ultimately it's Pittman's assumed volume that keeps him appealing as a high-end No. 2 Fantasy receiver."Antonio Brown @CAR -- "It's absolutely possible that Brown b blows the lid off the Panthers with a 10-target, 90-yard, one-score game, stats he's exceeded in three of his five. Carolina's allowed nine touchdowns to wideouts over their past eight games including three touchdowns to Bills wide receivers last week (and two on shut-down cornerback Stephon Gilmore)." |
| Sits |
| Mike Williams @HOU -- "The matchup is so good this week, but Williams has been so tough to trust. Justin Herbert gave him not one, not two, but THREE targets in or right in front of the end zone on the Chargers first drive last week and he came up empty. That makes Williams now 3 of 12 on targets from 10 yards or closer to the goal line. Eventually, Herbert's going to stop throwing him the ball. The Texans have allowed 10 total touchdowns to wide receivers over their past eight games, but only half have come from 10 yards or closer." Michael Carter vs. JAX -- "Carter saw a slim majority of snaps and running back touches for the Jets in his first game back from injury, but he grossly underwhelmed against a good Dolphins defense. Not that he didn't look spry, but his workload is far from where he was before his high-ankle sprain. It only makes sense for the Jets to ease him back in and use Tevin Coleman as his primary backfield mate. Coleman played five of seven snaps from 10 yards or closer to the goal line last week and might stick in that short-yardage role, erasing plenty of Carter's upside. That keeps him from being a top-30 running back in my rankings, even against the Jaguars . Problems with the Jets O-line and Zach Wilson's inability to target his running backs further dim Carter's upside. " |
| Sleepers |
| Devin Singletary @NE -- "The Bills will positively run their offense through Josh Allen, but I can't help but wonder if they'll try to emphasize their run game after failing to flex their muscles against the Patriots three weeks ago in that minor hurricane they played in. If that happens, Singletary appears to be the back the coaching staff has settled on. In the two games since the wind storm, Singletary has played at least 80% of the snaps and come away with at least 89 total yards per game (once on 10 touches at the Bucs, once with 23 touches versus Carolina). That's a reliable minimum to count on from him against a Patriots run defense that's allowed over 100 total yards to a back in nine of its last 12 games."Allen Lazard vs. CLE -- "With Marquez Valdes-Scantling on the sideline for this matchup, Lazard should see an uptick in targets and have a shot to make up for last week's end-zone misses. On two occasions, Lazard had a shot at scoring but couldn't quite reel in the football on either throw from Aaron Rodgers, including one he was wide open on. It's that touchdown potential you have to hope for because Lazard's never been a yardage guy (two in his career with 80-plus yards), but he's actually tied for the Packers lead in end-zone targets with nine and ranks 16th in the NFL in that category." |
| Busts |
| D'Onta Foreman vs. SF -- "This will sound funny given the history of his opponents, but Foreman's matchups against the Patriots and Steelers were both favorable going in and were only successful because he had at least 20 touches in each. But those run defenses pale in comparison to the 49ers, who this season have allowed nearly a full yard per carry less than the Patriots and more than a full yard per carry less than the Steelers."Terry McLaurin @DAL -- "With or without Taylor Heinicke , McLaurin is tough to trust beyond the flex range. Even though the wideout has seven-plus targets from Heinicke in 10 games this season, he's dominated (over 100 yards and a touchdown) in four of them and failed to get even 70 scoreless yards in six. McLaurin also has one score since Week 6. The only flicker of hope involves the deep ball -- the Cowboys pass defense has yielded four touchdowns of 20-plus yards to receivers over its past five games with 12 overall completions of 20-plus yards to receivers (fifth-most)." |
| 🚑Week 16 Injury Watch |
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| There are 150-plus players on the COVID list right now, including some of the biggest names in football. We've also got a ton of injuries to keep track of as usual. The thing to keep in mind with regards to COVID absences is, because of changes to the protocol, it is easier to be cleared to return to action right now than it has been in the past this season. So, assuming a player is vaccinated, being added to the COVID list this week doesn't necessarily mean they are out -- though it seems more likely than not most players added Wednesday or after will have a hard time being cleared. |
| Here's everything you need to know as of Thursday morning: |
| Thursday Night Football: 49ers at Titans |
| A.J. Brown (chest) – Brown was designated for return from IR earlier in the week and returned to practice, however, because the Titans don't have to include them on their official practice reports until he is on the active roster, we really don't know how much he did in practice. However, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport did report Wednesday that Brown is likely to play, and it would be hard not to have him active if he's playing. Julio Jones (hamstring) – No injury designation. He was a full participant in practice Wednesday after missing the previous two days so it looks like he's good to go. However, given how his season has gone, I'm not sure how you could trust Jones unless you were truly desperate, even against a beat-up 49ers secondary. Elijah Mitchell (knee) – Mitchell is out yet again as a result of this lingering injury, so expect Wilson to once again get a healthy role. He's a solid RB2 for me even against a tough matchup. |
| Reserve/COVID-19 list |
| QB Jared Goff (Dec. 20)QB Baker Mayfield (Dec. 15) WR Tyler Lockett (Dec. 16)RB Austin Ekeler (Dec. 22)RB Kareem Hunt (Dec. 17)WR Tyreek Hill (Dec. 21)WR Tyler Lockett (Dec. 16) WR Brandin Cooks (Dec. 22)WR Jarvis Landry (Dec. 14)WR Allen Robinson II (Dec. 16)WR Kadarius Toney (Dec. 13) WR Cole Beasley (Dec. 22; out for Week 16 at least)WR Sammy Watkins (Dec. 19)WR Jalen Guyton (Dec. 22) WR Kendrick Bourne (Dec. 20)TE Travis Kelce (Dec. 21)TE Tyler Higbee (Dec. 17)K Ka'imi Fairbairn (Dec. 22) |
| Wednesday practice report updates |
| Quarterback |
| Lamar Jackson (ankle) – Did not practice. We're still hoping Jackson can be back this week, but if Tyler Huntley is still available on waivers, you should probably make sure you add him – either to start him yourself or to keep him from whoever you're playing against. He showed too much upside last week to run the risk of running into him in the playoffs. Justin Fields (ankle) – Limited practice. This is a new issue for Fields, so we'll note it, but it doesn't seem like too much of a concern right now. He's a high-variance QB2 against the Seahawks. Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) – Out for Sunday's game against the Raiders. Coach Vic Fangio said Bridgewater is still the starter when healthy, but at least for Week 16, it'll be Drew Lock. Sam Darnold (shoulder) – Designated to return from IR. Darnold has been cleared for contact, and Panthers coach Matt Rhule told reports Wednesday that he'll play "at some point" over the next three weeks. |
| Running back |
| Joe Mixon (ankle) – Full practice. So much for Samaje Perine's Week 16 value. Mixon's ankle injury looks like a non-factor, and he'll be an RB1 for the matchup against the Ravens. Leonard Fournette (hamstring) – Out, expected to be put on IR. That'll likely happen in the next few days, and Ronald Jones figures to be the lead back for the Buccaneers. They signed Le'Veon Bell, presumably to compete with Ke'Shawn Vaughn for the passing downs role, but Jones is the only Bucs RB I have eyes for this week. Antonio Gibson (toe) – Did not practice. If you remember back to last season, Gibson missed a few weeks with a turf toe injury, and the injury was reportedly bothering him through the summer. This injury is believed to be similar to that one, so this is a legitimate concern. Jaret Patterson would likely be the lead back against the Cowboys if Gibson is unable to play, and would be in the low-end RB2 discussion. D'Andre Swift (shoulder) – Limited practice. This is the first time we've seen Swift practice since suffering the injury, and we'll see how he does throughout the week. The Lions have a fantastic matchup against the Falcons, and while Swift could have a limited role if he does return, it would be awfully hard not to start him this week. Jamaal Williams (COVID) also returned to practice Wednesday. Miles Sanders (quad) – Did not practice. And now we have an idea of why Sanders might have been on the sidelines for much of the fourth quarter Tuesday. The Eagles didn't actually practice Wednesday, so this was more of an estimate of his availability, but it's still not a great sign. We'll watch this one closely, and Jordan Howard would probably be a low-end RB2 in a great matchup against the Giants if he gets a chance to start. James Conner (heel) – Did not practice. Conner has missed both days of practice, so his availability for Saturday's game against the Colts is very much in question. If he is out, Chase Edmonds would be a top-24 RB even against a tough matchup. Josh Jacobs (illness) – Did not practice. We have no specific reason to think this is COVID related, but … well, look around. It may be. We'll keep an eye on it for now, but just prepare for the possibility of not having Jacobs – and that would be bad timing since he's a top-five RB for me in Week 16 against the Broncos. Melvin Gordon (thumb/hip) – Did not practice. Gibson played through the injury last week, so hopefully, this is just a day off, but it's worth noting because Javonte Williams would likely be a top-five RB if Gordon were out against the Raiders. Rhamondre Stevenson (illness) – Did not practice. Stevenson was a huge disappointment last week, and now he's got this to keep track of. Damien Harris (hamstring) – Limited practice. It's hard to know what this means since Harris was limited all last week before sitting out. The Patriots aren't likely to give us clues one way or the other. |
| Wide receiver |
| Mike Evans (hamstring) – Did not practice. That's not a great sign for Evans' chances of playing in Week 16. At this point, I'm not expecting it, but hopefully, he's cleared. He's a must-start Fantasy WR whenever active, obviously. D.J. Moore (hamstring) – Did not practice. Moore played through the injury last week, so I'm assuming he'll do the same this week. But obviously, we want to see him get on the practice field in the next two days. He's a WR2 for me despite the sorry state of the Panthers passing game – he's averaging 14.4 PPR points per game in Cam Newton's four starts. Adam Thielen (ankle) – Limited practice. This is progress for Thielen, who has missed the past two games with the injury. This is the first time he's practiced, and considering he was a game-time decision last week despite not practicing, his chances of playing look pretty decent right now. Jamison Crowder (calf) – Did not practice. Crowder had a healthy target share last week and has some appeal as a PPR flex, but this is a bad start to the week. This is the first we're hearing of this injury, so we'll keep an eye on it. Emmanuel Sanders (knee) – Limited practice. With Beasley out, the Bills could use Sanders against the Patriots. Regardless of whether Sanders plays or not, however, Gabriel Davis is going to be a starting-caliber wide receiver in my eyes. Laviska Shenault (shoulder/foot) – Did not practice. Shenault has been a pretty massive disappointment so far this season, and these injuries could make it even harder for him to redeem himself in these final few weeks. He probably doesn't need to be on a roster at this point. Rondale Moore (ankle) – Did not practice. Moore has missed both days of practice so far. If anything, his potential absence might actually help Chase Edmonds and Conner, since so many of Moore's targets come as an extension of the running game, typically. |
| Tight end |
| Darren Waller (knee/back) – Did not practice. At this point, it's not entirely clear if Waller is going to return at all this season, seeing as he hasn't even practiced since suffering the injury on Thanksgiving. Foster Moreau has disappointed in his absence. Pat Freiermuth (concussion) – Did not practice. It's no surprise that Freiermuth wasn't out there Wednesday, seeing as this is his second concussion in the last month. I'm not expecting him to play. |
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