High Rates, Shortages Take Their Toll on Builder Sentiment

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said on Monday that its index that measures home builder confidence in the new home market has fallen below the halfway mark for the first time since April. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index declined 5 points in December. Coupled with its 6-point drop in August, the index has erased five months of gains. NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz said, “The two-month decline in builder sentiment coincides with when mortgage rates jumped above 7 percent and significantly eroded buyer purchasing power. And on the supply-side front, builders continue to grapple with shortages of construction workers, buildable lots and distribution transformers , which is further adding to housing affordability woes. Insurance cost and availability is also a growing concern for the housing sector.” Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. All three major HMI indices posted declines in September and two of the three are now below the break-even point. The HMI indices gauging current sales conditions and those over the next six months each fell 6 points to 51 and 49 respectively. The component measuring traffic prospective buyer traffic was down 5 points to 30.

September 18, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News High Rates, Shortages Take Their Toll on Builder Sentiment The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said on Monday that its index that measures home builder confidence in the new home market has fallen below the halfway mark for the first time since April. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market In... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged After Mid-Day Improvements Mortgage rates began the day in slightly higher territory, but recovered after lenders offered mid-day price improvements. These sorts of mid-day changes are not uncommon when the bond market improves enough during any given business day. Assi... (read more) MBS Commentary Uneventful Monday Fits Fed Week Narrative Uneventful Monday Fits Fed Week Narrative After last week's economic data ebbed and bonds sold-off with Europe on Friday, we knew we'd likely be waiting until Wednesday's Fed events for the next significant b... (read more) Rob Chrisman HELOC, Manufactured, Technology, Marketing, and Digital Tools; Central Banks and Inflation If you want something sobering, almost mesmerizing, here’s a short drone video of the flood damage in Libya (at the 15 second mark you can see how it tore through the city). Fortunately not so sobering are some stats out of the United States. The U.S... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.28% -0.01% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.28% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.63% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.74% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.34% 0.00 0.00 5/1 ARM 7.08% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.75% 0.00 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/18 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.63% -0.01% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 7.18% +0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.51% -0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/14 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.16% +0.07 0.68 15 Yr. Fixed 6.57% +0.06 0.94 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.11% +0.07 0.55 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 8/16 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 6.0 99.81 +0.16 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 6.0 99.81 +0.16 GNMA 6.0 100.17 +0.17 Pricing as of: 9/18 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.3050 -0.0310 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 5.054 +0.017 5 YR Treasury 4.449 -0.016 7 YR Treasury 4.400 -0.020 10 YR Treasury 4.305 -0.031 30 YR Treasury 4.383 -0.038 Pricing as of: 9/18 5:31PM EST Latest Video Homebuilder sentient goes negative for the first time in seven months We may very well have an immaculate disinflation, says Ed Yardeni Former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan: Organic growth capability of the... It's a good time to put more money into fixed income, says DWS Group’s Davi... Around the Web CNBC The Federal Reserve may pause its interest rate hiking campaign this week. What that means for you Eye on Housing High Mortgage Rates Continue to Weaken Builder Confidence Calculated Risk Blog Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August and Some New Household/Housing Stock Data Calculated Risk Blog Housing September 18th Weekly Update: Inventory increased 1.9% Week-over-week; Down 6.1% Year-over-year Marketwatch Why an emergency Fed lending program for banks is seeing increased demand CNBC Treasury yields rise as investor attention turns to upcoming Fed meeting Calculated Risk Blog 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in August Marketwatch Rate hikes cut both ways as corporate bankruptcies head for worst year since 2010, Guggenheim says Reuters U.S. consumer sentiment slips again but inflation outlook improves Eye on Housing Single-Family Permits Decline in July 2023 Marketwatch Treasury yields extend rise as autoworkers go on strike CNBC European markets set to open in negative territory, with Fed in the spotlight this week Calculated Risk Blog Q3 GDP Tracking: Around 3%

© 2023 Mortgage News Daily, LLC. | 19701 Bethel Church Rd. | Cornelius, NC 28031 Interest rates displayed are national averages and for informational purposes only. Actual rates from lenders may vary based on several factors including, but not limited to, credit worthiness, ability to replay, credit score, down payment, loan term, etc. This email was sent to: newsletter@newslettercollector.com. Go here to UNSUBSCRIBE from this email.