Higher gold price cushions Harmony

While the local economy remains hobbled by lockdown restrictions, which have brought businesses including some retailers to their knees, conditions are loosening up in a number of countries were Covid-19 infections appear to have peaked for now. European property investor NEPI Rockcastle is starting to see the light again as its shopping centres reopen and tenants start trading again. It has also managed to collect the bulk of the rent owed to it.

SA shopping centre owner Fairvest has been less successful but has still managed to bring in more than half of last month's rent while following The Property Industry Group's guidelines on leniency for distressed tenants. Investec Australia Property Fund is preparing for tougher times too, including a possible recession in Australia.

A number of property group updated the market yesterday on the ongoing impact of the coronavirus and lockdown conditions on their operations. Harmony Gold Mining also provided a nine-month update, which sent its shares sharply lower. While the gold producer has benefited from a higher rand gold price, it has withdrawn its full-year guidance due to the production it's lost as a result of the lockdown. It also plans to raise $200 million in share capital - if shareholders allow it - to part-fund its acquisition of AngloGold Ashanti's Mponeng mine.

In "Lower for longer on rates?", Ingham Analytics poses an interesting question for investors. South Africa has falling short-term interest rates (good for your mortgage repayment, not so good for banks) and higher long bond yields (bad for the government budget deficit). Amid the Covid-19 lockdown, government debt is rising, and GDP is shrinking. So, there is this divergent interest rate situation, which is not typical in many countries. But, could this change? Could long rates fall? What are the implications? Get the report, complete with revealing graphs, here.

Finally, is the coronavirus a potential killer blow for South Africa or is this an enforced opportunity to reset our common economic health and priorities? In his latest report, "South African economic and financial fragility", top trader Andrew Kinsey performs a basic balance sheet analysis of the key component pieces that make up the local economy, including the banking system. Understanding this and then relating that to our own circumstances and intentions provides insight on what the future could hold for us over the next 2 years at least.

Have a good day and stay safe.

Stephen Gunnion

Managing Editor, InceConnect

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