Highest Rates Since November After Inflation Remains Elevated

More Data to Prove The Fed's Point; Rates Don't Like It It will take one of two things for the current rising rate trend to run its course. Either the economic data needs to shift in a compelling way or the selling needs to take rates back up to 2022's highest rates at which point markets will conclude a compelling economic shift is imminent. Neither option is "fun" for the mortgage/housing market. Today's CPI wasn't as much of a barn burner as the jobs report 2 weeks ago, but it was high enough to prove the Fed's persistent point regarding stubbornly elevated inflation. Econ Data / EventsCore CPI m/m0.4 vs 0.4 f'cast, 0.4 prev last month revised up from 0.3 Headline CPI m/mas expected at 0.5, but... last month revised up from -.1 to +.1 Market Movement Recap09:18 AM First move was weaker after CPI, followed by a quick recovery and now back to slightly weaker territory. 10yr up 2.9bps at 3.732. MBS down an eighth of a point. 10:45 AM Weakest levels now with 10s up 6+ bps at 3.768 and MBS down almost 3/8ths of a point. No new motivations, just an ongoing reaction. 01:47 PM Decent recovery since noon, but still down 3/8ths on the day in MBS. 10yr still up 5bps at 3.75+ (off previous highs of 3.80). 02:50 PM Little-changed from previous update with 10yr up 6bps at 3.764 and MBS down just over 3/8ths. No major reaction to Fed speakers.

February 14, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary More Data to Prove The Fed's Point; Rates Don't Like It More Data to Prove The Fed's Point; Rates Don't Like It It will take one of two things for the current rising rate trend to run its course. Either the economic data needs to shift in a compelling way or... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Highest Rates Since November After Inflation Remains Elevated The Fed generally wants annual inflation to be around 2% at the core level. "Core" is fancy market jargon for an economic metric that excludes some of its more volatile components. In the case of inflation data, "core" excludes food and e... (read more) Rob Chrisman UW, Rate Quote, Margin Management, Servicing, Tools; Fannie Results; Webinars and Events; Great Communication Video I am in Reno today, Spokane tomorrow, but I spent much of last week in Chicago which is very much a melting pot of languages. One can walk down the street and hear similar words for the same thing: Hypothèque (French), hipoteca (Spanish), hipotēka (L... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.62% +0.08% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.62% +0.08 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.86% +0.11 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.12% +0.20 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.13 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.10% +0.15 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/14 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.86% +0.11% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.12% +0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.25% +0.11 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/9 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.18% -0.01 0.64 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.14 0.63 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.96% -0.03 0.55 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/8 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 98.86 -0.34 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 98.86 -0.34 UMBS 5.5 100.25 -0.23 GNMA 5.0 99.69 -0.30 GNMA 5.5 100.69 -0.17 Pricing as of: 2/14 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.7470 +0.0440 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.618 +0.096 5 YR Treasury 4.001 +0.089 7 YR Treasury 3.891 +0.069 10 YR Treasury 3.747 +0.044 30 YR Treasury 3.777 +0.002 Pricing as of: 2/14 5:31PM EST Latest Video Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel now sees a stronger economy post-CPI New CPI data gives the Fed more ammunition to continue tightening, says Sch... Labor markets are still strong, says Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan Despite sticky inflation, strong labor market is making equities rally, say... Around the Web CNBC Inflation rose 0.5% in January, more than expected and up 6.4% from a year ago Eye on Housing Slow Progress for Inflation SeekingAlpha Federal Reserve is likely close to pausing rate hikes, Philly Fed's Harker says Calculated Risk Blog Current State of the Housing Market: Overview for mid-February CNBC Here's the breakdown of the inflation report for January in one chart Reuters Fed's Barkin says inflation risks still outweigh others CNBC Inflation report due Tuesday has the potential to deliver some bad news Reuters Fed's Williams Says the Work to Control Too High Inflation Is Not Done The Basis Point 3 home buyer & seller tips in a 2023 market thats declining but not crashing Calculated Risk Blog Demographics for Housing are not as Favorable as Projected 3 Years Ago Eye on Housing Materials Remain Builders Top Challenge, but Inflation and Interest Rates are Threatening CNBC Treasury yields fall as investors await consumer inflation data Eye on Housing Single-Family Permits Declined 2022

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