Home Price Growth Grinds to Halt. What Does It Mean For Conforming Loan Limit Outlook?

Today brings the release of June's home price indices from both the FHFA (the regulator that oversees Fannie and Freddie, the entities that guarantee a majority of mortgages in the U.S.) and S&P Case Shiller. These are the two most widely followed measures of home prices and FHFA's data is particularly important as it determines changes in the conforming loan limit. Both indices decelerated in June, but both remain historically high in year-over-year terms. For those curious as to how the recent surge in prices stacks up with the housing boom that preceded the mortgage meltdown and financial crisis, here you go: Year-over-year numbers certainly don't tell the story of the recent shift in prices. The following chart shows the month-over-month changes, with the most recent update for June dropping to 0.1% (versus 1.3% in May) for FHFA and 0.4% (versus 1.2% in May) for Case Shiller. Again, this is for the month of JUNE, and there have been another 2 months of housing market activity since then. Other, more timely home price metrics suggest the trend continued, with the following comments from Black Knight being particularly interesting: "The median home price fell by 0.77% in July, the largest single-month drop since January 2011. On a seasonally adjusted basis, July’s dip ranked among the 10 largest monthly declines on record, dating back more than 30 years." -Black Knight

August 30, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Home Price Growth Grinds to Halt. What Does It Mean For Conforming Loan Limit Outlook? Today brings the release of June's home price indices from both the FHFA (the regulator that oversees Fannie and Freddie, the entities that guarantee a majority of mortgages in the U.S.) and S&P Case Shiller. These are the two most widely f... (read more) MBS Commentary Lots of EU-Inspired Volatility Early, But Still Waiting on Domestic Data to Shape Trends Sideways Afternoon After Volatile Morning "Hypervigilant volatility." Get used to seeing that new phrase as it aptly describes traders' reactions to whatever the most compelling indicator may be at any ... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Hold Mostly Steady at Recent Highs Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market, and bond traders have a lot on their minds these days. After trading rates up to the highest levels in years roughly 4 months ago, rates have bounced around in a volatile, but still mostly sideways ... (read more) Rob Chrisman Credit, PPE, Non-QM, LO Sales Training Products; Training and Events Nationwide Nature “always bats last.” Terrible flooding in Pakistan, flooding in Mississippi impacting its drinking water supplies. Severe temperatures in China, a hot summer in the Western U.S. Fortunately, this year’s hurricane season in the U.S has been tepi... (read more) Mortgage Rates Mortgage Rates Hold Mostly Steady at Recent Highs 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.95% +0.00% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 5.95% 0.00 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.24% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.30% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.05% 0.00 0.00 5/1 ARM 5.93% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.35% 0.00 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 8/30 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.24% -0.01% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 5.13% -0.09 0.80 15 Yr. Fixed 4.55% -0.04 0.70 5/1 Yr. ARM 4.39% -0.04 0.30 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 8/18 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.20 0.68 15 Yr. Fixed 5.01% +0.14 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.28% +0.14 0.58 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 8/24 MBS / Treasuries Lots of EU-Inspired Volatility Early, But Still Waiting on Domestic Data to Shape Trends UMBS 30YR 4.5 99.69 -0.08 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 4.5 99.69 -0.08 UMBS 5.0 101.14 -0.06 GNMA 4.5 100.27 -0.05 GNMA 5.0 101.48 0.00 Pricing as of: 8/30 5:41PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.1118 -0.0018 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.458 +0.027 5 YR Treasury 3.272 +0.010 7 YR Treasury 3.218 0.000 10 YR Treasury 3.112 -0.002 30 YR Treasury 3.226 -0.021 Pricing as of: 8/30 5:41PM EST Latest Video Goldman Sachs anticipates housing market growth to slow sharply I'm waiting to see if the Fed follows up on Powell's Jackson Hole speech, s... The 2pm Bond Report - August 30, 2022 The 9am Bond Report - August 30, 2022 Around the Web CNBC Fed's Williams pushes back on market expectations of a rate cut next year CNBC Job openings top 11.2 million in July, well above estimate and nearly double the available workers CNBC UK inflation could top 22% as energy prices soar, Goldman Sachs warns CNBC Home prices weakened in June, but were still much higher than a year ago, says S&P Case Shiller Calculated Risk Blog Comments on June Case-Shiller and FHFA House Price Increases Eye on Housing Stable Reading for July Construction Job Openings CNBC Fed rate hikes won't bring down inflation as long as government spending stays high, paper says Reuters ECB must swiftly normalise rates; neutral may not be enough, Knot says CNBC U.S. Treasury yields dip ahead of economic data Calculated Risk Blog Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up Slightly Year-over-year CNBC Fewer Americans say they are living paycheck to paycheck as inflation begins to ease Calculated Risk Blog Pace of Rent Increases Continues to Slow Eye on Housing Stucco and Vinyl were the Most Common Siding Materials on New Homes in 2021

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