Home Prices Are Slightly Lower, But Far From Plumetting

As rates spiked and sales contracted at the fastest pace in decades last year, we knew the post-pandemic surge in home prices was set to reverse. By the middle of 2022, the average forecast saw the annual pace of home price appreciation falling back toward historic norms with prices losing a bit of ground on a monthly basis. That is exactly what has been happening. Both the FHFA and S&P Case Shiller publish home price indices (HPIs) each month. There's a bit of a lag in the data (today's is for the month of November), but collectively, they're considered the most official record of home price changes. Case Shiller's index focuses on 20 major metro areas. As such, it tends to be more volatile--zooming to the higher highs and lower lows than the more stable FHFA version. Case Shiller shows a 0.5% decline in November, which was actually a bit less of a drop than forecast. FHFA's monthly numbers were down even less (-0.1%) after holding steady in October. This is perhaps worth some small amount of reassurance given November's prices should have been affected by a sharp spike in rates in September. In any event, the chart above gives us the impression that the worst is behind us in terms of monthly price declines. The takeaway from the long term chart of year-over-year change is even more upbeat. It actually shows price gains remaining higher than the past 16 years according to FHFA and among the highest levels of the past decade according to Case Shiller.

January 31, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Home Prices Are Slightly Lower, But Far From Plumetting As rates spiked and sales contracted at the fastest pace in decades last year, we knew the post-pandemic surge in home prices was set to reverse. By the middle of 2022, the average forecast saw the annual pace of home price appreciation falling... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Have Been Calm So Far This Week. That Could Change Now Mortgage rates have been roughly in line with last week's latest levels at the beginning of the current week. That means they're fairly close to the 4 month lows seen 2 weeks ago with the average lender able to offer conventional 30yr fixed rat... (read more) MBS Commentary What to Expect From Fed Day What to Expect From Fed Day Markets can see the changes in inflation data and traders are eager to refine their understanding of how the Fed will balance those changes against their determination to avoid mis... (read more) Rob Chrisman HMDA Compliance, Expansion Plan, Pricing Engine, Subservicing Products; Program and Procedure Changes Does technology always trump personal skills? Sometimes. But not all the time. Good LOs use the technology that best suits them in combination with their personal attributes to help borrowers every day. “In space, no one can hear you scream. In cyber... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.17% -0.04% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.17% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.24% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.70% 0.00 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.30% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.82% -0.03 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 1/31 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.24% -0.03% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.13% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.17% -0.11 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/26 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.23% -0.19 0.67 15 Yr. Fixed 5.58% -0.36 0.54 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.08% -0.01 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/18 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.30 +0.19 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 100.30 +0.19 UMBS 5.5 101.50 +0.13 GNMA 5.0 100.61 +0.20 GNMA 5.5 101.55 +0.11 Pricing as of: 1/31 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.5105 -0.0316 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.203 -0.037 5 YR Treasury 3.619 -0.047 7 YR Treasury 3.574 -0.038 10 YR Treasury 3.511 -0.032 30 YR Treasury 3.636 -0.016 Pricing as of: 1/31 5:31PM EST Latest Video January US Consumer confidence declines Chicago PMI comes in under expectations; lightest since November '22 Employment Cost Index increased 1% in the fourth quarter Annual home price appreciation and rent growth continue to slow, says Cortl... Around the Web CNBC Why the case is growing for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut before year end Eye on Housing Fewer Prospective Buyers Are Fully Engaged in Purchase Process Calculated Risk Blog Case-Shiller: National House Price Index "Continued to Decline" to 7.7% year-over-year increase in November Eye on Housing Housing Affordability Goes South Eye on Housing Fourth Quarter of 2022 Homeownership Rate at 65.9% CNBC Treasury yields decline as investors await Fed meeting Calculated Risk Blog Comments on November Case-Shiller and FHFA House Prices Calculated Risk Blog Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Increased Slightly in December Calculated Risk Blog Lawler: D.R. Horton (DHI) Net Order Price Declined "Roughly" 10% from Peak CNBC Treasury bonds rise as investors look to Fed meeting Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 69% YoY; New Listings Down 5% YoY Calculated Risk Blog Housing January 30th Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 1.4% Week-over-week Reuters Euro zone bond yields jump after hot Spanish inflation data

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