Home Prices Fell More Than Expected in April

Both the FHFA and Case‑Shiller home price indices were released today. While the data collection time frame is from April, they each suggest a similar shift is underway when adjusting for seasonality. Specifically, if we ignore seasonality, prices rose. If we don't, they were down 0.4% from March. FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM) April: −0.4%; March was revised from −0.1% to 0.0% YoY: +3.0% from April 2024 to April 2025 Monthly figures varied regionally: the West South Central and South Atlantic divisions posted the steepest falls (−1.3%), while the Middle Atlantic rose +1.2%. All nine divisions remain positive YoY (ranging from +0.5% to +7.4%). The 0.4% drop is in line with slower spring momentum—not drastic, but a continued cooling from prior gains. The upward revision in March helps to offset April's declines to some extent. Case‑Shiller National Index (unadjusted) YoY: +2.7% in April, down from +3.4% in March MoM (raw): +0.6% MoM (seasonally adjusted): −0.4%

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