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Friday, June 6, 2025
For the first 11 starts of the season, Jesus Luzardo looked like a potential league-winning pick. He wasn't just good for a late-round pick, he looked like one of the absolute best pitchers in baseball, sporting a 2.15 ERA and three different double-digit strikeout efforts, giving him 77 strikeouts, the seventh-most in the league through May 25. 
Two starts later, his ERA is up to 4.46 and he's managed to either erase all the good he did for your season-long stats or almost singlehandedly cost you your matchup in the past two weeks. Thursday against the Blue Jays wasn't quite as bad as his previous outing, but eight runs in 2.1 innings is hardly good, even if it's not quite as bad as 12 runs in 3.1 innings.
But you know what's weird about Luzardo's performance Thursday? It doesn't seem unfixable. 
Now, don't get me wrong: He was awful. His command was terrible, especially with his slider and sweeper, neither of which went where he wanted them to go. He threw just nine of 24 sweepers/sliders in the strike zone and often missed big. That allowed hitters to sit on his fastballs and changeups – his weaker pitches – which mostly caught too much of the outside half of the zone to the righty-heavy Blue Jays lineup, who didn't miss much when they swung. It got to the point where Luzardo said he'll look into whether he was tipping his pitches after the start. 
But, as bad as Luzardo was in his past two outings, nothing looks unsalvageable. The first place we'd typically look when things go wrong for Luzardo is at the radar gun, but all looks well there – he averaged 96.5 mph with his four-seamer and 96.1 with his sinker in this one, right in line with his season-long averages. Nothing looks amiss there. 
And the movement profiles on his pitches mostly looked okay, too. His four-seamer was getting a bit more run than usual, which might explain why he was missing so much to the glove side. And his sweeper was getting a couple inches less vertical break, which is probably a sign that he just wasn't feeling the pitch well – and if you watched the start, it's clear he wasn't. 
But it's also worth noting that, while he was bad Thursday, it's not like he was getting clobbered on every pitch. Only five of the 14 batted balls against him had an expected batting average over .500, and while there were a few more in the .470-.490 xBA range, it's not like the Blue Jays were just teeing off on him and crushing 100-mph liners all over the field. I don't want to say it was bad luck – Luzardo's command was bad enough to earn these results, especially on that sweeper, which has been his best pitch this season. But I don't think it was quite the disaster it looked to be from the line, and I do wonder if Luzardo might have been tipping his pitches, which could be something relatively easy to fix. 
So, where does that leave Luzardo moving forward? Honestly, I think I'm probably viewing him as a buy-low candidate at this point. I moved him down in my rankings this week – how could I not after 20 runs in two starts? – but I didn't bury him. He's still a top-100 player for me and a top-40 SP, and while I understand you might have trouble believing that after how bad the last two starts have been, I'm standing by it. His FIP for the season is still a very strong 2.90, while his xERA is worse but still in the 3.50 range. 
Which is to say, I think it would certainly be a mistake to drop Luzardo. And if you don't have him on your team, I think right now is the perfect time to try to trade for him. See if you can offer someone like Kodai Senga or Tyler Mahle for him straight up; their pretty ERAs hide much worse underlying metrics in both cases. 
Okay, sure, maybe you sit him the next time out, just to make sure he doesn't let this totally derail him – the fact that his next matchup is against the Cubs makes it easier to make the call to sit him, too. But Luzardo gets the Marlins the next time out after that, and I definitely want him around for that one.
Obviously, given Luzardo's injury history, there's a chance he's working through something, which would change my view entirely. But as long as Luzardo is healthy and throwing in the high-90s consistently, I'm going to bet on him getting back on track. That suddenly looks like a much bolder call than it did just a week or so ago. 
Here's what else you need to know from Thursday's action:
Thursday's Standouts
 Cole Ragans, Royals @STL: 3 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – Ragans' fastball velocity was down about 1 mph in his return from the groin injury, though he still got 11 swinging strikes on 78 pitches. I'm willing to chalk this one up to rust and nothing more at this point. 
Dylan Cease, Padres @SF: 5 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 7 K – It's been a weird year for Cease, who has struggled despite generally throwing a lot more strikes than we're typically used to seeing from him. He was showing signs of pulling out of it about a month ago, but he has now gone three straight with 5 IP or less and at least three earned runs allowed. He just hasn't been sharp, and the concern here is that he's already pulled the "just spam sliders" lever, and I'm not sure how many other tricks he can pull out of his bag. I'm not panicking, but I'm certainly worried. 
Robbie Ray, Giants vs. SD: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – Ray now has nine strikeouts in three of his past five starts, and has been on a role for even longer than that, putting up a 1.57 ER, with 53 strikeouts to 13 walks in 46 innings since the start of May. It took him a while to get everything working right, but Ray looks like he's living up to the loftiest hopes we had for him before the season. You love to see it, though given his historic inconsistency, I don't want to get too complacent here. Ray could be a sell-high candidate if you get the right offer. It would just have to be a top-20 SP value at this point.
Ryan Pepiot, Rays vs. TB: 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – This is Pepiot's sixth quality start in a row, and his ERA is down to 3.20 for the season. But during that stretch of quality starts, he has just two starts with more than five strikeouts and just 30 in 42 innings overall. His fastball and changeup were divine today, generating 17 combined swings and misses (against a Rangers lineup that has been awful all season). But the fastball has been much less effective than last season before this start, and the rest of the arsenal mostly hasn't made up for it. I'm not buying this hot streak at all. 
Casey Mize, Tigers @CHW: 4.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 3 K – He has seven strikeouts to six walks in 8 IP over the past two starts, with 13 strikeouts to seven walks total in 13 innings since coming off the IL. He's still roughly an average strikeout pitcher overall, so Mize really needs his command to be on point to make this whole thing work, and I'm just not sure I believe in it. That 2.91 ERA makes him a pretty clear sell-high candidate to me. 
Noah Cameron, Royals @STL: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – The Cardinals went 2 for 8 on batted balls hit over 95 mph with only two singles. Look, strikeouts aren't everything. I know that. And Cameron has done a really good job of limiting hard contact overall this season, generating a high number of weakly hit pop-ups, and maybe he can just keep this going. But I'm always going to be skeptical of guys who have to be this dependent on their defense to be difference-makers. Can he be a useful Fantasy option? Sure, I could see Cameron settling in as a Chris Bassitt or Jose Berrios type. But he's a long way from that right now with a 0.85 ERA through his first five career starts, making him a fairly clear sell-high candidate if there's anyone buying. It reminds me a lot of Francis Bowden last season, and you can see how well that's going right now. 
David Peterson, Mets @LAD: 7 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – His season-long ERA is down to 2.80, and it was 2.90 last season … Are we just totally underrating this guy? Probably not. Even with those excellent ERA numbers, Peterson has a 1.28 WHIP since the start of last season, gets less than a strikeout per inning consistently, and has pretty average results on balls in play. I think he's probably just gotten lucky, though I'll grant that pulling that off for 191.2 innings across two seasons is hard to do! But I think he's close to his 2025 3.90 xERA than anything like his sub-3.00 ERA. 
David Festa, Twins @ATH: 3.2 IP, 6 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – He still got 12 whiffs on 36 swings despite the poor results, which is neat, and consistent with what we've seen from Festa in his chances in the majors. But he also gave up 11 balls in play with a 94.8 mph average exit velocity, which is also in keeping with what we've seen from Festa, unfortunately. I'm not giving up on him, but you don't need to run out and add him in all formats after this one. 
Slade Cecconi, Guardians @NYY: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – Cecconi flashed a bit of strikeout upside in his first two starts, but has been pretty underwhelming overall and has seen the strikeouts diminish in his past two. Overall, he has 20 strikeouts to seven walks in 20.1 innings of work, which isn't bad, but it's not good enough to make up for his very poor quality of contact allowed. Right now Cecconi looks like just a guy. 
Marcus Semien , 2B, Rangers – Is Semien back? He went 3 for 4 with two solo homers Tuesday, raising his OPS above .600 for the first time all season – I double-checked that stat to make sure it was true. He has multiple hits in three of his past six games, with three of his six homers all season coming in that span. And his xwOBA over his past 50 PA entering Thursday was .378, better than any season in his career. Did we actually give up too early? I've been hesitant to give up on Semien for the past year or so despite his struggles, so I'm inclined to believe there's still something left in the tank here. 
Robert Garcia, RP, Rangers – Garcia gave up three runs on four hits and a walk to blow the save against the Rays. The Rangers have tried several different options in the ninth inning, and none of them have taken the job and run with it. They've been hesitant to pigeonhole Chris Martin into that ninth-inning job, but they have to be considering it at this point now that he's back from the IL, right? 
News and notes
Kyle Teel is being promoted from Triple-A Charlotte to join the White Sox Friday. He's hitting .295/.394/.492 on the season with a good approach at the plate, and he's even shown some speed in the past. The complicating factor here is that Edgar Quero is a similar prospect who has already found success behind the plate for the White Sox, so they'll have to make room for both. It could be just as simple as playing them both every day, alternating between catcher and the DH spot – it's not like the White Sox have anyone they really need to get in there otherwise. But there was some talk of Teel playing 1B at Triple-A before his promotion, so that's a wrinkle to watch. Teel is worth adding in all two-catcher leagues if you need some upside. 
Matthew Liberatore left Thursday's game after struggling in four-plus innings. His velocity was down across the board overall, but it crashed late, as the three four-seamers he threw in the fifth inning were 90.8 and 89.5 mph. He's averaging 94.4 for the season, so … yeah. Haven't seen anything yet, but it's not what you want to see. 
Francisco Lindor fractured his right pinkie toe during Wednesday's game, but he's going to try to play through it. He was out of the lineup Thursday, but the expectation at this point is he'll avoid the IL, though that could obviously change. 
The Rockies could call up Ryan Ritter to replace Ezequiel Tovar if his oblique injury forces him to the IL. Ritter is MLB Pipeline's No. 12 prospect (in a bad system) and he has 16 HR in 52 games at Triple-A while hitting .305/.413/.635. He's not that good, but he was an above-average hitter the previous two seasons and has some pop as well. He's a name to keep an eye out for in the coming days. 
Josh Naylor is day-to-day with a hand and shoulder injury, something he's been playing through for a while – which maybe explains the mediocre power production. It doesn't sound like he's expected to miss much time, but it's something to watch out for. 
Kyle Tucker was back in the Cubs lineup Thursday after missing a few games with a finger injury. He went 1 for 4 with a couple of walks, so it all looks good here. 
Xander Bogaerts missed Thursday's game after leaving Wednesday's with a shoulder injury. 
Carlos Correa missed his second straight game Thursday with a back injury. 
Luis Robert was out of the lineup for the third straight game, though we haven't heard anything about an injury, so it seems like the White Sox are just trying to give him some time off to get right. 
Shane Bieber won't make his next scheduled start Friday at Double-A after he came out of his last bullpen session with soreness. He is meeting with team doctors and Dr. Keith Meister to determine the next steps, but this feels pretty ominous as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. 
Shea Langeliers was removed from Thursday's game due to left "flank" soreness. If that's a euphemism for the oblique, then that's a little worrisome. 
The Braves are activating Craig Kimbrel from Triple-A. Raisel Iglesias has not been his usual self, so Kimbrel could get some save chances if the Braves are truly desperate. 
The Rangers optioned Kumar Rocker back to Triple-A after his iffy showing Wednesday to make room for Chris Martin's return from the IL> 
Justin Wrobleski will start for the Dodgers Friday against the Cardinals. 
Kirby Yates (hamstring) and Michael Kopech (shoulder) could be back for the Dodgers this weekend. Manager Dave Roberts pointedly said the Dodgers won't have a set closer, so those two could factor in – though I'd still bet on Tanner Scott getting half of the chances, at least. 
Brandon Woodruff was pulled from his rehab assignment after being diagnosed with a right elbow contusion. It could be worse after he was hit by a comebacker on his pitching elbow, but it does seem like he'll have to take some time off before ramping back up, making a June return less likely. 
Something to watch: Christian Encarnacion-strand started at third base on Wednesday, the first time he has played there on his rehab assignment. He'll need to hit before we really care where he's playing, but that could be a sign that the Reds want to make sure they can get his bat in the lineup when he's healthy. 
Luis Arraez left Thursday's game with left knee soreness. 
 
 
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