| | | | Wednesday, April 17, 2024 | | How high is too high to rank Jared Jones at this point? In my rankings update last week, I moved him to SP35, and since then, he's tossed 11.1 innings with 15 strikeouts and zero walks, lowering his season ERA to 3.13, with the peripherals to back it up. | | If you've been reading this newsletter all year, you should know that I tend to be pretty conservative with projecting small-sample standouts, and I'm really struggling with Jones, because … right now, he looks like Spencer Strider. I don't make that comparison lightly, it's just the most apt comp I can come up with right now. | | When I did a deep dive on Jones' first couple of starts, that was the comp I came up with, because it's a pretty natural one. He has the top-rated fastball in the majors per the Stuff+ model, and his slider is a top-20 pitch by that model, as well; his changeup and curveball have mostly been show-me pitches (he threw them a combined five times Tuesday), but both of those rate out as plus pitches based on their movement and velocity profiles so far, too. | | And Jones seems to have fixed the one issue that held him back as a prospect, his command. He threw 84.7% of his pitches for strikes Tuesday against the Mets, which is as preposterous as it sounds: Since 2008, only one pitcher has ever thrown 50-plus pitches in an outing in MLB with a higher strike rate. We're talking about a pitcher with elite stuff and, seemingly, terrific command, who is dominating big-league hitters every time out, so what's holding us back from ranking him like an ace? | | | | Well, for one thing, it's only four starts. Jones has been tremendous, but he also had a 4.72 ERA last season at Triple-A, so it might be too early to just anoint him as an elite starter. There's a pretty thin line between someone like Strider and someone like Hunter Greene , another young pitcher with massive strikeout ability who has largely been a disappointment in the majors between mediocre command and a propensity for damage when he does give up contact. And, while Jones' command has been incredible so far, he has given up plenty of hard contact in the early going – though that wasn't an issue against the Mets, who averaged just 81.1 mph on nine balls in play Tuesday. | | But I think it's pretty clear SP35 is too low for Jones at this point. I wouldn't give him up in a trade to get Chris Bassitt or Bailey Ober, to name just two pitchers I had ranked ahead of him coming into this start, so I can move him ahead of them. But right ahead of Bassitt sits Joe Ryan, and that's a harder call to make; Ryan is off to a pretty bonkers start of his own, with a 34.3% strikeout rate and 2.9% walk rate, while also posting the best quality-of-contact metrics of his career. It is, similarly, too early to say Ryan has made a leap to ace-dom, but he did have quite a bit of success of his own before a groin injury derailed him in the second half of last season, so what if this is just who he is when he's healthy? | | So, that's where I'm moving Jones for now: To SP26. That's a gigantic rise for a pitcher I admittedly didn't even have inside my top-75 to open the season. But I also readily acknowledge that it might not be nearly high enough to justify how good Jones has been. And the only thing holding me back at this point might just be some lingering innings concerns – the Mets pulled him at 59 pitches during his gem Tuesday because he was only throwing five innings no matter what. But if he gets to 160-plus innings this season, can he be a top-12 pitcher? It sure looks like it right now. | | That was, arguably, the biggest performance of Tuesday's games, but it certainly wasn't the only noteworthy one. In the rest of today's newsletter, we've got more from Tuesday's action, including the top waiver-wire targets, which kicks off with a couple of big-name prospects getting their first call-up: | | | | Tuesday's top waiver targets | | | | Jack Leiter, SP, Rangers (34%) – I wrote about Leiter getting the call on Tuesday afternoon , and here's the short version of what you need to know: "You might look at Leiter's career 5.25 ERA in the minors and think there's not much to get excited about, but it's worth remembering that development is almost never linear, especially when it comes to pitching prospects. Think of someone like Mackenzie Gore , who went from the top pitching prospect in baseball to someone who was left off top prospects lists entirely by 2022, only to finally seemingly rediscover his potential ace form as a major leaguer in 2024. That's not to say Leiter is going to be an ace. But it is to say that how he's pitched so far in 2024 suggests he's a very different pitcher than the one who floundered in his first two professional seasons." | | Andy Pages, OF, Dodgers (17%) – I also wrote about Pages Tuesday, and here's the gist of it: "Power is Pages' calling card, which was why the shoulder injury was such a scary injury, especially since he didn't necessarily sport massive exit velocity readings before the injury. But he's been hitting the ball hard at Triple-A this season, sporting a 91.3 mph average exit velocity and 110.3 mph max exit velo, with five homers in his first 15 games. That's a good sign that he's recovered from the injury, and he's expected to make his MLB debut Tuesday against Patrick Corbin . It's not a profile that should necessarily lead to massive FAB bids and a rush to blow your top waiver-wire priority to add, at least not right away, but with Jason Heyward suffering a setback in his return from a lower back injury, Pages could get extended run here. He'll start against lefties and some righties to begin with, per MLB.com, but if he proves he can hack it, he could very well force the team's hand." | | Ryan Weathers, SP, Marlins (16%) – Weathers started to gain some hype with a very good spring, and then he squandered much of it with three earned runs in four innings in his debut. But he had a couple of better outings right after that, and then broke out Tuesday against the Giants, striking out 10 with one walk and two earned runs allowed over six innings of work. Weathers leaned heavily on his slider and his changeup, and he got 14 of his 19 swinging strikes with those two pitches. This might just be a one-time thing, but given the upside Weathers showed here, I'm willing to add him in leagues with more than 12 teams, just to see how he continues to build on this. | | Sal Frelick, OF, Brewers (47%) – With Christian Yelich out over the past four games (he was placed on the IL Tuesday), Frelick has moved up the lineup for the Brewers, including an appearance in the leadoff spot Tuesday. He went 3 for 4 with a walk and has more or less come as advertised, hitting .328/.397/.361 with three walks in his first 15 games of the season. He's going to need to cut his strikeout rate (20.6%) if he wants to sustain an exceptional batting average, but that's a bet I don't mind making. He might just be a starting outfielder in all formats, especially if he keeps hitting in the top-third of the lineup while Yelich is out. | | Jesse Winker, OF, Nationals (14%) – It was easy to write Winker's hot start off early on, but it's becoming increasingly difficult to justify as he continues to hit the ball hard. On his first 32 batted balls of the season, Winker was averaging 86.6 mph; his last nine over the past three games have been hit 96.2 mph on average. All of a sudden, his expected wOBA is .400, actually slightly higher than his Reds peak, which is harder to ignore. Maybe it just took a while for Winker to rediscover that form after a bunch of pretty serious injuries. Or maybe it's just a hot couple of days. I'm still inclined to believe the latter is the case, but I'm not so quick to write him off entirely, either. | | | | News and Notes | | Ozzie Albies was placed on the IL with a fractured toe on his right foot, suffered on a hit-by-pitch Monday. Albies won't require surgery and could be sidelined 2-3 weeks. Luis Guillorme started at second base Tuesday and Michael Harris was moved up to second in the Braves' lineup. If you need a replacement for Albies, go see if Jordan Westburg is available in your league – he homered again Tuesday and looks like a must-roster player. If not, check for Jose Caballero. | | Rafael Devers was removed due to left knee discomfort Tuesday. He also missed time with a shoulder injury over the weekend, so this is another tough blow for a hitter off to an unusually cold start. | | Gerrit Cole threw from 75 feet Tuesday and came out of it alright. He's still more than a month away from returning from his elbow injury and still has a lot more hurdles to clear. | | Josh Lowe is slated to begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Thursday as he works his way back from an oblique injury. Rays manager Kevin Cash said that Lowe might not need too much time at Triple-A given how well he's been feeling, though I wouldn't mind them taking a more cautious approach, given how oblique injuries tend to creep back up unexpectedly. | | Tyler Wells was placed on the IL with a right elbow inflammation. John Means could be ready soon, though I'd need to see a few good showings from him before I buy in outside of deeper leagues. | | Seiya Suzuki is expected to miss roughly four weeks due to a moderate strain in his right oblique. Nico Hoerner was moved back to the leadoff spot in Suzuki's absence and went 4 for 5 with two runs, a welcome sign of life. | | Jhoan Duran threw a 25-pitch bullpen session Tuesday and expects to face live batters Friday. He's probably still a few weeks away as he works his way back from an oblique injury. | | Tyler O'Neill cleared concussion protocol but will sit Tuesday and Wednesday before potentially rejoining the lineup Thursday. | | Salvador Perez has missed two straight with a left groin strain. | | Gabriel Moreno was scratched Tuesday due to a right thumb contusion. | | Garrett Whitlock was removed from his start due to left oblique tightness. Something to watch given his strong start. | | Jake Cronenworth was out of the lineup with calf tightness. | | Brett Baty was removed due to left hamstring tightness. | | DJ LeMahieu is expected to begin a rehab assignment this weekend. He started this season on the IL with a non-displaced fracture in his right foot, but was slated to be the Yankees' leadoff hitter before the injury. Given how well Anthony Volpe is hitting this season, I'd be surprised if they moved him out of that spot, which makes it a bit harder to buy LeMahieu as a sleeper. | | Monday standouts | | Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles vs. MIN: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – Rodriguez had a huge first start of the season, striking out nine in six innings while walking one, but he hasn't quite reached that level since. But he's still been really good since then, and I'm very confident that Rodriguez is a really good pitcher. I'm just not sure we're seeing signs of an ace-level breakout yet . | | Tanner Bibee, Guardians @BOS: 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – Bibee was getting whiffs with his three secondaries prior to this start, but his fastball velocity had been down about 1.5 mph, which probably helps explain why he wasn't pitching too well. The fastball velocity was back up above what he averaged in 2023 in this one, and while it didn't immediately lead to great results, I think he showed enough here to be optimistic that he's going to figure it out. But I don't think we're going to see the leap to ace levels many were hoping for, either. | | Carlos Rodon, Yankees @TOR: 4 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 5 K – If you're looking for a reason to be optimistic about Rodon, here's one: He threw his slider 16 times and got five whiffs with it, the best showing for that pitch all season. The problem is, well … look at the line! He had trouble putting Blue Jays hitters away, as they fouled off a whopping 27 pitches in this one, and until his slider gets back to the level it was at in 2022 and 2021, that's going to remain an issue. I think he'd probably be better off simplifying things and scrapping the cutter, curveball, and changeup, which he threw 24% of the time combined Tuesday, but that's not going to work until he rediscovers the slider. | | Yusei Kikuchi, Blue Jays vs. NYY: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – Over the past 365 days, Kikuchi has a 3.57 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and 193 strikeouts in 174 innings, and that includes last May, when he had a 5.83 ERA. From June 1 to today, he has a 3.11 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 169 strikeouts in 144.2 innings. I'm not ranking Rodon behind Kikuchi, but can you really give me a good reason why I shouldn't? | | Hunter Greene, Reds @SEA: 4 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 K – I am ranking Kikuchi ahead of Greene, though. Greene still has incredible upside, but he just hasn't figured out how to put it all together. The splitter and curveball he worked on this offseason haven't made a difference for him, and he threw them just eight times combined in this one. There's still a path to upside for Greene if he can figure it out, but I'm kind of tired of waiting on it. He's outside my top-50 starters at this point, and I'd rather have his teammate Nick Lodolo. | | Aaron Civale , Rays vs. LAA: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 8 K – I think this might just be what the Rays' version of Civale is: More strikeouts and whiffs than ever before, but with enough trouble keeping the ball in the yard that it consistently inflates the ERA. It's what we saw last season after the trade, and it's what we're seeing in the early going here with five homers allowed in four starts. If you want to be an optimist, you can point to Civale's pretty solid quality-of-contact results as reason to believe he'll keep the ball in the yard more consistently, but I'm just not sure I buy it. At least not enough to make him an ERA standout. | | Ranger Suarez, Phillies vs. COL: 9 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – This is awfully far into the newsletter to go before mentioning the second complete game of the MLB season. Suarez has been pretty tremendous to date, and while I don't see any reason to think he's suddenly a dominant pitching force, his groundball rate is back to where it was in 2021 and 2022, and his walk rate is lower than ever, both of which are great signs for a guy who is probably not going to sustain his strong strikeout start. I'm definitely expecting regression here, but I also think Suarez could repeat 2022, when he had a 3.65 ERA and was pretty useful in all formats. | | Reynaldo Lopez, Braves @HOU: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – I can't really make sense of this version of Lopez. His strikeout rate is up to 26%, but his 10.4% swinging strike rate doesn't support that, so I definitely expect some regression. But what really boggles my mind is the elite quality of contact suppression – he entered Tuesday with a .275 expected wOBA on contact, 100 points lower than his career mark, and then he allowed just four hard-hit balls to the Astros. It takes a long time – like, a full season, if not longer – for quality-of-contact metrics to stabilize for pitchers, and he's never been an outlier in that regard before, so I'm expecting some serious regression related to the aforementioned markers. He's a must-start pitcher in H2H points leagues thanks to his RP eligibility, but I'm still not buying in for Roto. Sell-high if someone is. | | Jordan Hicks, Giants @MIA: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – Hicks was cruising through three innings before running into some issue in the fourth. His control abandoned him a bit in this one, and I wonder if that's related to his velocity being up across the board. I don't think he needs to sit in the high-90s to be successful, I'm hoping this was just a bump in the road. As far as bumps in roads go, this wasn't a particularly turbulent one. | | Casey Mize, Tigers vs. TEX: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – This was a pretty good outing from a player I was ready to drop in pretty much all formats, but … I still don't feel bad about the spots where I dropped him. Mize clearly has talent, but he just hasn't figured out the right pitch mix to generate whiffs – he got seven of them on 95 pitches here. He's fine, but we're chasing better than fine, and I'd be okay with dropping Mize for Weathers or Leiter. | | Chris Paddack, Twins @BAL: 5.1 IP, 12 H, 9 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – I had some hope that Paddack might rediscover his early-career form coming back from Tommy John surgery, but we've seen nothing from him to garner optimism. The Orioles are a tough matchup, obviously, but Paddack's ERA was over 4.00 before this one; it's over 8.00 now. You can drop him, even in H2H points leagues. | | Jordan Romano, RP, Blue Jays – Romano made his return from his elbow injury Tuesday and was immediately thrown into a save situation against the Yankees. He allowed a run on one hit, but was able to close it out, and his velocity was exactly where it was last season. I can't say I have no concerns here, given the elbow injury, but this was a pretty good return, all things considered. | | Abner Uribe, RP, Brewers – Remember when Uribe looked like the Brewers closer? Well, do closers pitch the fourth inning of games where their team is trailing? Yeah, I think this one is probably open again, and I wouldn't be surprised if Joel Payamps got the next save opportunity for the Brewers. Uribe did get two strikeouts in this one, so hopefully that's the start of him getting back on track, but right now, I don't think you can trust him for saves. | | Andres Munoz, RP, Mariners – The Mariners have five saves as a team, and Munoz has just two of them, mostly because they are using him as a fireman rather than saving him for the ninth inning; Tuesday, he came in to face the top of the Reds lineup with a runner on base and got out of that jam before striking out the side in the eighth. I think Munoz is still the likeliest person to get the next save for the Mariners, but he might only get 60% of the team's saves instead of 75% with this usage. | | | | | | | | UEFA Champions League | | Golazo Network | Only 8 teams remain in the fight for the UEFA Champions League trophy. Watch as the battle continues today and tomorrow on CBS and all matches streaming on Paramount+.
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