This is all part of a recent realignment in American politics, where Democrats now overperform in lower-turnout elections and Republicans — at least on paper — do better when there's larger turnout.
The challenge for Trump is turning that support in the polls into votes.
Our merged polling finds that the sliver of the electorate that didn't participate in either 2020 or 2022 have less interest in the upcoming election than voters who cast ballots in at least one of those two past elections, raising doubts about whether they'll show up in 2024.
On the other hand, NBC News recently observed a pair of focus groups of voters who didn't participate in the 2020 election but are planning to this time around. They revealed understandable reasons why they didn't vote four years ago — work, family, Covid, not meeting voter-registration deadlines all got in the way.
These non-2020 voters also voiced why many of them — though not all — are backing Trump over Harris: They believe life was better when Trump was president than it is now.
"Prosperous," "robust," "normal" and "hopeful" were some of their answers when asked what life was like when Trump was in the White House.
Now? "Difficult," "struggling," "declining" and "troubling" were among their responses.
These are the voters who are leaning Trump's way, the focus groups found. The billion-dollar question hanging over this election: Will they — as well as the millions of other voters who sat out 2020 — ultimately vote and cast ballots for Trump?
