Here at The Old Farmer’s Almanac, we’re fascinated by all of the ways that people use to predict the weather. While our own forecasts are based on several scientific disciplines, our editors have also been known to dig into folklore and more that has been used for generations to judge the coming harshness of winter or heat of summer.
One of the longest-standing weather prognosticators still working today is that regent of rodent royalty, Punxsutawney Phil, who is said to predict wintry conditions for 6 more weeks or an early arrival of spring, depending on whether he casts a shadow at first emergence from his burrow or doesn’t, respectively. This is a story that we all know (there’s even a beloved movie!), but how did a groundhog come to wield so much fame and prognosticating power?
The date of Groundhog Day—February 2—is what is known in astronomy as a “cross-quarter day”—that is, it occurs at the midpoint between a solstice and an equinox. In this case, in the Northern Hemisphere, these are the winter solstice and the spring equinox.
This halfway point in the season—when there are about 6 weeks left until the official start of spring—is often symbolically seen as when light and life begin to win over the cold and darkness. It has been recognized by many cultures for generations by various names, including the Celtic holiday Imbolc, and Candlemas, the Christian festival of light. Celebrations often included looking to nature and animals for signs of the coming season. In France and England, bears brought the forecast; in Germany, it was badgers.
When German immigrants arrived in Pennsylvania in the 1800s, they found no badgers, but there were plenty of groundhogs. The old ways were adapted for a new land and, eventually, Punxsutawney Phil became the stuff of legend.
While we’re big fans of tradition, when Phil pokes his head out on February 2, don’t be too disappointed if his prediction isn’t what you want to hear. Phil’s pretty enduring, but he isn’t much of a weatherman: He’s correct only about 39 percent of the time.
One thing that we can be sure of is that spring will arrive on Saturday, March 20. This occurs with the spring equinox, when the Sun crosses the celestial equator while heading from south to north.
With the official start of spring still weeks away, be prepared for what Mother Nature throws your way with our long-range weather forecasts!
Finally, all this talk of spring has us thinking about getting back outside and into the garden! If you’re feeling the same but aren’t sure where (or when) to start, check out our free Vegetable Planting Calendar. It’s simple to use: Enter your zip or postal code and get the best dates—based on data from thousands of weather station reports—to start seeds indoors and out, as well as when to plant seedlings or transplants, for dozens of the most popular vegetables.
Want to take your garden planning even further? Plan your dream landscape with our Garden Planner app. Try it for free! |
As sure as the Sun will rise and set each day, The Old Farmer’s Almanac is here for you, now and always.
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