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Hi John, here's what you need to know for December 13th in 3:09 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. US consumer prices rose at their fastest rate in nearly 40 years last month
  2. Bill Ackman has made a big bet on inflation, and you can do the same – Read Now
  3. Software giant Oracle reported better-than-expected results

Federal Reservations

Federal Reservations

What’s Going On Here?

Data out on Friday showed that US consumer prices rose at their fastest rate in nearly 40 years last month, but the Federal Reserve might want a minute to think twice about its next step.

What Does This Mean?

American consumer prices just won’t settle down: the dastardly duo of supply shortages and booming demand meant prices rose 6.8% last month compared to the same time last year. That’s the fastest annual rise since 1982, and a big jump from October’s 6.2% increase. And sure, a good chunk of that was due to rising food and gasoline prices – they’re up 6% and 58% respectively. But there’s more to it: prices were up across the board, with clothing, used cars, and housing rising 5%, 31%, and 4% respectively versus last year. That's partly why core inflation – which strips out the typically more unstable food and energy prices – rose by 4.9% compared to the year before, and reached a 30-year high.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: The Fed’s got a decision to make.
Investors are expecting the Federal Reserve (the Fed) to accelerate the wind down of its bond buying program at its final meeting of the year next week. While that could cool down rising consumer prices, there’s a snag: the latest jobs report for November showed a weakening jobs market. So if the Fed follows through, it could risk hurting that fragile market – and the wider economic recovery – even further.

Zooming out: ...And so does the Bank of England.
The UK economy isn’t feeling too hot, either: data out on Friday showed it grew by a worse-than-expected 0.1% in October compared to the month before. That’s a sharp fall from September’s 0.6% rise, and that was before Omicron emerged. That might make the Bank of England think twice about raising interest rates, which would make borrowing more expensive and risk further denting economic growth.

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Analyst Take

How You Can Bet Like Bill Ackman

How You Can Bet Like Bill Ackman
Photo of Stéphane Renevier

Stéphane Renevier, Analyst

What’s Going On Here?

Bill Ackman’s got a good track record.

And now, he’s betting on high inflation. In fact, his $170 million inflation trade is now worth $1 billion.

Ackman reckons there’s a tricky mix at play: government support, supply disruptions, and pent-up demand have all created the perfect conditions for high inflation.

And he doesn’t see it dropping soon, either. In fact, he reckons there are a few factors that could keep inflation way above the Federal Reserve’s target for way longer than expected.

But there is some good news – and boy, do we need it. See, whether or not you agree with Ackman, you can pretty much replicate his profitable inflation bet.

So that’s today’s insight: why Bill Ackman thinks inflation will rise higher and stay there, and how you can profit from his prediction.

Read or listen to the Insight here

Better Than Planned

Better Than Planned

What’s Going On Here?

Oracle reported better-than-expected results late last week, and the software giant’s got businesses to thank.

What Does This Mean?

Companies around the world are increasingly turning to cloud computing solutions to help with day-to-day activities like accounting – and Oracle’s not complaining. The software giant makes two cloud-based resource planning products, among other things, and they’ve been in high demand: sales for its Fusion and NetSuite products were up 35% and 29% respectively last quarter compared to the same time last year. That’s partly why its total cloud sales – including selling software solutions and infrastructure like data centres – were up by 22% last quarter. And that helped grow overall sales by a better-than-expected 6% last quarter compared to the same time last year.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Oracle’s got rivals to catch.
That’s nothing new, mind you: Oracle’s sales have now grown for six quarters in a row, which might explain why its shares were up 39% this year before the results – far higher than the US stock market’s 26%. But don’t get carried away: that’s still far behind cloud rivals Microsoft and Google’s parent company Alphabet – they’re up 53% and 71% respectively. This might help though: Oracle’s upped its share buyback program by $10 billion – which should reduce their supply and push up their price – and delighted investors sent its shares up 10% after the news (tweet this).

Zooming out:
The Oracle of Omaha strikes again.
There’s another Oracle at play: Brazilian fintech Nubank is backed by SoftBank and Warren Buffet – a.k.a. the Oracle of Omaha – and its shares jumped 15% when it listed on the US stock market late last week. Not only was it the fifth largest US listing this year, it also earned Nubank the title of Latin America’s most valuable financial company. And it’s not stopping there: the digital lender’s planning to use the $2.6 billion it raised to expand into new markets like Mexico and Colombia.  

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💬 Quote of the day

“What’s authentic to me is being humble; a humble servant. If you’re going to be a successful officer, you need to be a humble servant for your troops.”

– Tyson Clark (general partner at GV, who died on December 9th)
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🎯 On Our Radar

  1. It’s a dog’s life. Desperate times call for… private jets.
  2. The big bake. 850 pounds of fun brownies, anyone?
  3. A day at the waterpark. The natural choice after escaping a near-death experience.
  4. Penguins miss you. Lockdown’s tough for them too.
  5. A night spent at the pub. Literally.
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