Wildfire dangers have already reached extreme levels across the Mediterranean according to the Copernicus Emergency Management Service, as several countries, including Spain, Portugal and Greece brace for another brutal summer. The European Union has ramped up preparations, “strategically prepositioning” a new team of 556 firefighters from 12 counties across high-risk areas this summer, backed by €600m in funds for planes and helicopters. But as the fastest-warming continent, the dangers in Europe are already outpacing preparations.
“It will be a very difficult fire season, a very difficult summer,” Vassilis Kikilias, Greece’s climate crisis minister, told reporters in May after dozens of fires erupted. “We had a dry winter and fall temperatures lasting until December. So we’re facing the climate crisis head on.” Greece, which suffered the worst fire in the European Union last year, is on track to have another devastating season after the warmest winter on record created ideal conditions to fuel flames.
Across the Atlantic, officials in Canada are also concerned about the conditions after the country experienced an astounding season last year, when more than 6,600 fires churned across 15m hectares, eclipsing the annual average with a seven-fold increase. By April, the government had warned 2024 could be another catastrophic year due to low snowfall and widespread drought. Only a fraction of the land burned by this time last year has ignited so far, but wildfire risks typically ramp up in July and August.
In the US, many fire-prone regions were treated to a wet winter, including in California forests where the threats from catastrophic blazes are often high. But the extra rainfall also helped to seed invasive grasses that spread across sparse arid landscapes, and rapidly dried as temperatures rose.
These parched plants are already fuelling fire. Even after a cool spring, flames ripped through the yellowing hillsides east of the San Francisco Bay Area earlier this week in a worrying sign of how quickly conditions can change. In the south-west and Great Basin region – which includes most of Nevada and areas of Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Oregon and California – fire season is already in full swing.
Acreage burned so far this year has already eclipsed the 10-year-average, according to data from the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), at 183% of normal for this time. And the seasons of highest risk still lie ahead. Temperatures are trending above average across the country from June through August, according to the National Weather Service, which could set the stage for a very active fire season.
“Repeated heatwaves can offset the benefit of having a lot of rain,” said Dr Max Moritz, a wildfire specialist with the University of California Cooperative Extension, adding that the warming weather will squeeze more moisture out of soils and plants, especially grasses, brush and other so-called “flashy fuels” that ignite easily.
Wildfires can be driven by a number of conditions, including gusty winds, low humidity, and an abundance of dried vegetation, but heat is at the heart of this story and there’s going to be a lot more of it in the months and years ahead.
“A warming planet means we need to be prepared for the impacts of climate change that are happening here and now like extreme weather events that become both more frequent and severe,” Kapnick said. “We will continue to see records broken and extreme events grow until emissions go to zero.”
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