Another Big November Rally After CPI There's something about CPI releases in November.  Last year's example prompted one of the biggest single-day, data-driven bond market rallies on record.  This year's isn't far off--a fact made all the more stunning by the mere 0.1% beat (Core monthly CPI 0.2 vs 0.3 f'cast).  There are a few ways to try to explain the size of the reaction. On a nitty gritty note, the problematic housing component fell from 0.6 to 0.3.  On a more general note, it's possible the bond market was more interested in "no whammies" than a sweeping reversal of inflationary pressures. Econ Data / Eventsm/m Core CPI0.2 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.3 prev m/m Headline CPI0.0 vs 0.1 f'cast, 0.4 prev Market Movement Recap08:38 AM Slightly stronger overnight and much stronger after CPI data.  10yr down 12.6bps at 4.512.  MBS up 14 ticks (.44). 10:02 AM 10s bottomed at 4.434 and are still down 18bps on the day at 4.457. MBS are up 26 ticks (.81). 12:40 PM Off the best levels, but not by much.  MBS still up 27 ticks (.84).  10yr down 17.3bps at 4.465. 04:02 PM Briefly in line with best levels and now slightly lower in MBS, currently up just shy of a full point.  10yr down 19bps at 4.447.
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November 14, 2023
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MBS Commentary
Another Big November Rally After CPI There's something about CPI releases in November.  Last year's example prompted one of the biggest single-day, data-driven bond market rallies on record.  This y... (read more)
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Mortgage Rates
MBS / Treasuries