| By Andy Swan Tesla’s (TSLA) stock is down, analyst sentiment is weak (nine out of 10 bet against the stock Wednesday), and the market sees slowing electric vehicle (EV) demand and margin pressure as existential threats.
Source: TradingView This week’s muted reaction to Tesla’s earnings report – and more important, to its stellar earnings call – was eye-opening.
This tepid response is a miscalculation – and incredible opportunity for TSLA investors. The asymmetric upside on TSLA has never been greater, with multiple game-changing catalysts converging, driven by vision and leadership that comes around once in a generation. The market is failing to price in Tesla’s dominance in artificial intelligence (AI), autonomy, and robotics – all of which have the potential to make Tesla worth more than the next five largest auto companies combined. Here’s why we believe betting on TSLA now presents one of the most compelling upside opportunities in the market... FSD’s Tipping Point Is Near For years, Tesla has been criticized for missing deadlines on autonomy. That skepticism remains, but the reality has changed. Tesla’s FSD Version 13 has already demonstrated exponential improvements, and CEO Elon Musk just confirmed that unsupervised FSD – as in, no driver needed – will launch in Austin by June 2025. Expansion across the U.S. will follow by year-end, with regulatory approval being the only major constraint internationally. FSD turns every Tesla into an income-generating asset overnight. Currently, cars sit idle for 90-95% of the day. Once autonomous, utilization makes a 5x leap to 50-plus hours per week – transforming Tesla's vehicle fleet into a revenue powerhouse. The market is not pricing in this potential multitrillion-dollar business model shift. Safety Data Will Force Adoption... Regulations Will Catch Up Tesla’s fourth-quarter safety report shows how far ahead the company is in autonomy. FSD-equipped vehicles had one crash per 5.9 million miles, compared to the U.S. average of one crash per 700,000 miles. That’s nearly 8.5x safer than a human driver.
Source: ir.tesla.com Musk made it clear: FSD is already beyond human-level driving in many scenarios. With upcoming software versions scaling memory retention and reinforcement learning, Tesla’s AI advantage will widen. At a certain point, regulatory hesitation flips, and the liability shifts from allowing human drivers to control vehicles to not mandating autonomy. Once that inflection point is reached – likely within the next 12 to 24 months – Tesla's ability to license FSD to other automakers will unlock an entirely new profit stream that the market is currently valuing at zero. Tesla Supercharging Network: A Recurring Revenue Moat Tesla’s Supercharger network is an overlooked but high-margin, recurring revenue asset that reinforces its dominance in electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure.
Source: ir.tesla.com While legacy automakers struggle with unreliable third-party charging solutions, Tesla’s fast, reliable, and widespread network remains the gold standard. The key shift? Tesla is now monetizing this advantage by opening Superchargers to non-Tesla EVs, creating a tollbooth model. Major automakers, including Ford (F), General Motors (GM), and Rivian (RIVN), have already committed to adopting Tesla’s North American Charging Standard (NACS), meaning their EVs will depend on Tesla’s infrastructure. The Supercharger Network’s Growth and Revenue Potential at a Glance: ✓ 60,000+ Superchargers globally, with rapid expansion underway ✓ Non-Tesla EV owners now paying Tesla directly for access ✓ Automakers integrating Tesla’s NACS, locking them into its ecosystem ✓ Government funding accelerating deployment, reducing Tesla’s capex burden In essence, Tesla is quietly becoming the de facto standard for EV charging, much like Apple (AAPL) with its App Store ecosystem. As more automakers rely on Tesla’s infrastructure, Supercharging revenue will scale exponentially, adding another high-margin cash flow stream that Wall Street is underestimating. | Recommended Link | | | | A new way to potentially double your portfolio in 2025 by predicting the biggest jumps on 5,000 stocks, BEFORE they occur. And how a “disconnect” in today’s market has opened the best opportunity in 20 years to apply this breakthrough new strategy today. Including 2 free recommendations in a historic event backed by 3 Wall Street legends. Watch now, before it goes offline. | |
Bitcoin: Tesla’s Unrecognized Financial Windfall Thanks to a new accounting standard, Tesla saw a $600 million mark-to-market gain on its Bitcoin (BTC) holdings in the fourth quarter. And this is just the beginning. The new rule means Tesla will now book quarterly gains on its BTC holdings. With Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 and new all-time highs likely in 2025 (driven by the halving and institutional adoption), Tesla’s non-operational financial tailwind could easily reach several billion dollars. Most companies hoard cash in depreciating fiat currencies – Tesla instead positioned itself early in Bitcoin. If BTC follows historical cycles and keeps surging beyond $100k, Tesla’s holdings could quietly add billions to its balance sheet, creating an unexpected upside catalyst that traditional analysts are overlooking. Cost Reduction + Manufacturing Scale = Rebounding Margins Tesla has slashed per-vehicle costs below $35,000, an overlooked achievement, given persistent inflation and capital investments in AI and robotics.
Source: ir.tesla.com The company is retooling all Model Y factories – an unprecedented move for the world’s best-selling car – to push margins higher. The near-term margin compression due to factory retooling will be temporary. By late 2025, Tesla will have a lower-cost model launching, further expanding its total addressable market (TAM) and reinforcing its cost leadership in EVs. With Megapack battery storage demand growing more than 50% year over year, Tesla’s energy business is also poised to contribute significant cash flow. Optimus and AI Will Make Tesla a Multitrillion-Dollar Company Musk is confident Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, will eventually be worth more than the entire auto business. The company is targeting several thousand units in 2025, with the goal of scaling to millions annually. The market is asleep on Tesla’s AI and robotics strategy. While others talk about AI in terms of software, Tesla is integrating it with hardware – creating real-world AI.
Optimus will disrupt labor markets globally, replacing human labor in factories, warehouses, and beyond. Musk projects that long-term revenue from Optimus will surpass $10 trillion. This isn’t science fiction. Optimus already operates in Tesla factories, handling tedious, dangerous tasks.
At scale, Optimus could be one of the most transformative products in Tesla’s history. The Market’s Most Compelling – and Overlooked – Upside Opportunity Tesla is the leading real-world AI company, the leader in autonomy, and soon, the leader in robotics. But the market is still anchoring its valuation to EV sales and margins, completely ignoring AI-driven software and hardware businesses that could 10x its value. At today’s price, TSLA offers asymmetric upside with multiple ways to win: ✓ Autonomy flipping Tesla from a hardware seller to a software revenue machine ✓ Safety data forcing regulatory shifts and licensing deals for FSD ✓ Bitcoin holdings acting as an unrecognized financial hedge with massive upside ✓ Cost reductions positioning Tesla for an industry-wide rebound ✓ Optimus creating a completely new market that will dwarf the auto sector Bottom line: Musk is building the future. The market is still underestimating Tesla’s execution, but the reality is unfolding faster than most realize. A bet on TSLA today is a wager on exponential growth that Wall Street has yet to grasp. Until next time, Andy Swan
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