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| Friday, June 21, 2024 |
| Hey everybody, welcome back to school. I hope you enjoyed your summer! Go ahead and grab a magnifying glass from the back of the classroom. I know it's almost the weekend, the pool is calling your name, but I'm going to ask you to lock in for this moment. The pool will be waiting. Right now, we're in the lab. |
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| I hated science class when I was in school. It was a struggle. |
| If you read Wednesday's newsletter, you probably realize that I actually love science. I love math. I love research. I just did a quick "CTRL+F" of the word 'rate' in Wednesday's post and found that I used it 65 times. Another control-find shows me that "%" appeared in that post 66 times. There's a ton of research that goes into each of these posts. I hope that never results in these reads feeling dull. That's how science class felt for me, but I think the issue was a lack of storytelling and contextualization around the research itself to help it feel accessible. Or maybe the issue was that I had such a short attention span that I needed the information dressed up to keep me from goofing off. Hard to tell! |
| I'm not worried about you becoming distracted today. This rushing scheme data affects some of the most talked-about breakout players and backfield situations. Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard, Marshawn Lloyd and Josh Jacobs, Jim Harbaugh and someone. Your interest is piqued, right? How about Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker, which one fits better in the new Seattle offense designed by Brian Grubb? |
| No distractions today, this lunch break is about to be LIT. This topic has tugged at my awareness subconsciously ever since Scott Barrett made me aware of Dameon Pierce's poor fit with Bobby Slowik's zone rushing scheme. When Matt Harmon and Nate Tice of Yahoo Fantasy put out this absolutely action-packed electric episode discussing run game concepts and scheme, my subconscious started pounding on the door every day, demanding that I find time to learn more about this topic. |
| I was amazed at how much I was learning in that episode. I felt like Matt and Nate were speaking a different language at times, and I became almost obsessively curious about learning more about rushing concepts and how they may affect Fantasy Football results. I started listening to the episode anytime I felt like I had free brain space available. I put it on loop when I slept so that I could digest it fully. Okay, that's not true, but I have listened all the way through at least three times! I would love to be able to better understand how blocking and coaching scheme impact the results that we see from running backs. |
| Offensive line play was of the most-asked-about topics suggested by FFT newsletter readers who filled out the form that I've attached at the bottom of previous newsletters this week. That was a really cool discovery, as that's where my head has been lately too. |
| I feel like so often the best Fantasy analysis at RB is simply, "eh, volume. Follow volume." That's probably mostly right, but what if we could get like even a little bit closer to all the way right? I decided to micro-analyze the different types of rush volume and which players are best suited to maximize their respective offense's scheme. I'm curious what you'll think about it. Maybe this will be the start of finding something awesome that changes the way we evaluate the running back position for Fantasy! Or maybe not. Maybe we'll just unearth one small detail. But maybe that detail moves the needle enough to help us avoid the next Dameon Pierce or place a bet on the player who turns out to be the next "out of nowhere" breakout like Kyren Williams in 2023. |
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| If you received my introduction on Monday, you might remember me referencing Pierce as a huge miss of mine from the 2023 draft season: |
| "I also am not interested in using these examples of yearly big "hits" to brush over the fact that I miss. I'm going to miss each year, sometimes in a big way. Last year, I glossed over the fact that Dameon Pierce was a poor schematic fit with a new Houston Texans regime and the style of rushing that Bobby Slowik might implement. I simply was unaware of Pierce's pronounced splits as a highly effective man/gap concept runner and a below-average rusher behind zone-blocking. Since then, Scott Barrett has familiarized me with the advanced rushing data available on FantasyPoints.com, which was unavailable to me before 2023. I would have liked to avoid a costly mistake in investing in Pierce in 2023, but I also view it as a learning opportunity and can now share that learning with those who have an interest in following my work." |
| Today, we're going to dive head-first into the dank data from FantasyPoints.com that I mentioned about Pierce. In his case, this data could have helped us avoid a costly bust. In the case of Kyren Williams, we might have been able to identify early on what a great fit he was for the new direction of Sean McVay's offense. The Rams elevated their man/gap concept rush rate from 30% (28th) in 2022 to 54% (3rd) in 2023. That change was about as unforeseeable as the decision to establish Williams as an every-down workhorse, I'm not claiming that we should have predicted this. But, with increased awareness of rushing scheme data, I believe I would have noticed the change in L.A.'s approach and been more confident in Williams' ability to fit that scheme extremely well. Even though his role was awesome, I was skeptical about Williams as a high-upside Fantasy option. I did not expect him to be nearly as effective as he was with his opportunities. And that's the heart of what I'm so interested in with this data, can we predict running back effectiveness better? |
| I won't answer that question today, I wish that I had the time to test this data to see how well it correlates from college to the pros as well as year-over-year at the NFL level. I also want to test how effective it is at predicting effectiveness on a week-to-week basis as in-season matchup data. And I am curious if success on any specific types of schemed rushes correlates to long-term success, similar to how early-career success against man/press coverage is an encouraging long-term signal for wide receivers. Those are all questions for another day. |
| Today, our focus is on specific running backs and coaches and how they might interact with each other as schematic fits. Through the lens of rushing scheme data, using the general terms "man/gap" and "zone" rushing (I cannot recommend the video from Harmon/Tice enough if you want to learn more specifics), I'll give you some context on which teams use certain types of blocking the most and how those tendencies align with specific players within their offense. We'll speculate on how this data might be useful and situations where players might be more effective. |
| In the case of Williams, McVay's move to more "duo" running and less zone-blocked runs was a perfect recipe for success. If you're unfamiliar with duo runs, this link should take you to the moment where Nate Tice describes offensive line action on duo runs, why he expects duo to continue to be used more at the NFL level, and how the Rams made an effective transition to more duo usage in 2023. |
| I highlight this specific player/team fit because Williams was way more effective as a man/gap rusher at the collegiate level than as a zone rusher. Among running backs who have been selected in the NFL Draft dating back to 2017, Williams ranked fifth percentile in rushing EPA per snap and ninth percentile in yards per rush on a 244-attempt sample of zone-schemed rushes. On man/gap runs, Williams ranked 92nd percentile in rushing EPA per snap. That's among 80 running backs who registered at least 75 career man/gap attempts. Only Tyjae Spears, DeWayne McBride, Jerome Ford, Javonte Williams, and De'Von Achane were more effective man/gap rushers than Williams. |
| Guess who ranked dead last as a man/gap rusher among that group? Cam Akers, who McVay seemed to repeatedly try to replace. Interesting! On the surface level, it seemed as if there was no reason for McVay's apparent disdain for the occasionally explosive rusher out of Florida State. After seeing what McVay did in the run game in 2023 (fifth in rush success rate, one of eight teams with a positive rushing EPA), what do we think? |
| I think I'm pretty intrigued by the work that both McVay and Tice do, and I want to learn more. Let's explore some other interesting player/team rush scheme data! |
| Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears |
| I can't stop writing about Tyjae Spears! |
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| According to EPA (expected points added ), Spears is the most effective man/gap rusher to enter the NFL Draft over the past eight draft classes. Spears averaged 6.1 yards per carry on zone attempts and 8.4 on man/gap concept runs at Tulane. He was more effective as a man/gap rusher as a rookie, but the separation wasn't nearly as pronounced. In 2023, the Titans ranked 12th in man/gap concept rush rate. Tennessee's new head coach Brian Callahan ranked sixth in man/gap rush rate at Cincy. New offensive coordinator Nick Holtz comes over from Jacksonville, and the Jags ranked eighth in man/gap rush rate. We may see the Titans lean into more man/gap runs. Tony Pollard also has better career splits on man/gap concepts than zone. |
| Also working in the favor of Spears is the fact that Tennessee is likely to run out of the shotgun way more under Callahan. The Bengals ranked third with a 73% from the gun rate in 2023, and the Titans (40%) ranked 22nd. |
| At Tulane, Spears averaged 7.0 yards per rush from the gun and just 4.3 yards per rush when not in the gun. At least among the group of 80 running backs who were drafted into the NFL, shotgun did not have a meaningful impact on yards per carry. That group posted a career 5.8 yards per rush from the gun and 5.6 from outside of the gun. |
| Schematically, Spears feels positioned for maximum efficiency in this offense. Who knows how conducive the overall offensive environment will prove to be for Fantasy scoring, and who knows what the role will be for Spears. There's a path to a breakout season if the stars align, though. And if you've watched Spears run at all, you know how fun that would be! I'm placing too many of my hopeful fan eggs into the Titans basket, 100%, but jeez, wouldn't it be a wild 2024 if we got a successful version of Will Levis, Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Spears, and Pollard? (And Chigoziem Okonkwo, I see the dozens of you!) |
| Bijan and Zac Robinson <3 |
| Nate Tice thinks Bijan Robinson's "ability/tendency to start/stop particularly unlocks duo," which may be part of the reason that Atlanta's ownership was enticed by the idea of bringing Zac Robinson over from the Rams. |
| In Wednesday's newsletter, I expressed some wariness regarding Robinson's projectable target total. I had to bring him up in this space, even if only speculatively. I'll be tracking Atlanta's rush scheme data throughout preseason action and into the early part of the regular season to alert you of any increase in power runs! |
| Gus Edwards, Jim Harbaugh, and Greg Roman |
| Greg Roman's (new Chargers offensive coordinator) Baltimore offenses lived in the shotgun (91% across the 2019-22 seasons), and Gus Edwards was ridiculously efficient in those offenses. In 2023, his first year without Roman, Edwards was used out of the shotgun more than ever before. I was curious how he'd fare, since the sample size on him outside of the gun was so small prior to 2023. |
| It was more of what we've seen throughout his career -- Edwards has been much better from the gun. His career average out of the gun is 3.2 yards per rush (3.6 in 2023). From the gun, his career rate is 5.2 (4.4 in 2023). |
| During his time at Michigan, Harbaugh was in the gun 84% of the time. He was pretty balanced overall if looking at man/gap and zone splits, but Harbaugh leaned more into man/gap concept runs later into his time with the Wolverines. In 2023, Edwards scored all 13 of his rushing touchdowns on man/gap concept runs. |
| For what it's worth, J.K. Dobbins was much better as a zone rusher in college. Who knows where he's at at this point in his career. |
| Rookie sixth-round pick Kimani Vidal has more experience as a zone rusher and there wasn't much difference in his collegiate efficiency splits. He played almost exclusively out of the shotgun at Troy and was more effective in the gun (5.2 yards per rush) than outside (4.0) of the gun. He seems like a decent fit for this offense if he gets an opportunity. |
Josh Jacobs and Marshawn Lloyd
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| Marshawn Lloyd's collegiate PFF grade was significantly better on man/gap concept runs than zone, which matches the data that I found on him. He ranked dead last in rushing EPA per snap on zone runs among 80 running backs, but he was 90th percentile on man/gap runs. |
| Traditionally, Green Bay has leaned more zone-heavy in the running game, but that could change following a backfield overhaul. Maybe Matt LaFleur wants to take his run game in a different direction. Harmon and Tice speculated as much while considering what to expect from this backfield. This will be one of the situations that I am tracking the most closely as we start to get 2024 data in August and September. |
| The splits for Jacobs aren't as dramatic as Lloyd's, but he's clearly been better as a power runner. Over the past three seasons, Jacobs ranks 27th percentile in rushing EPA per snap as a zone rusher and 90th percentile as a man/gap rusher. Adopting more duo and other man rushing concepts may be the move for Green Bay's offense. |
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| Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet |
| New Seattle play caller Brian Grubb leaned more towards zone rushing at Washington, a tendency that may benefit Kenneth Walker more than Zach Charbonnet if it follows Grubb to the pros. Walker has been better behind zone blocking at both levels, while Charbonnet was notably better on man/gap concept runs at UCLA. |
| Seattle used zone rushing at the third-highest rate in 2023. According to FantasyPoints.com's sortable and customizable advanced rushing data, Charbonnet's rushing success rate fell from 54% on man/gap concept runs to 46.5% on zone runs as a rookie. While this isn't an ideal setup for Charbonnet, I expect Grubb's system to be more suited to his skillset than the one he played in as a rookie. |
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren
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| In Wednesday's newsletter, I expressed optimism about Warren's receiving upside. Arthur Smith is here to ruin my fun, like always. |
| Smith's arrival in Pittsburgh feels like a great fit for Harris. Harris ranks 57th among 58 qualified backs in yards per man/gap rush over the past two seasons but is slightly above average on zone runs during that time. Smith's Falcons ranked first by a wide margin in zone rushing in 2022 but scaled back a bit upon the arrival of Bijan Robinson. Still, only the Eagles used zone runs at a higher rate than Atlanta in 2023. |
| Najee Harris, one of Fantasy Twitter's least favorite backs, and the devil himself, Arthur Smith. It's a match made in hell. Why was I ever expecting Warren to be a fun Fantasy player to roster in 2024? We are about to be treated to 350 Najee Harris four-yard runs as the Steelers somehow win nine games with a negative point differential and steal a playoff spot from a fun team like the Colts or new-look Titans. Awesome. Football is so back, baby! |
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| IN THE LAB BETA TESTING -- 10 TOPICS |
Caleb Williams
Anthony Richardson
Jordan Love
Jonathan Brooks
Chris Olave
Xavier Worthy
Dalton Kincaid
Kyle Pitts
Trey McBride
Offensive line questions |
| Yoooooooo! |
| We got roughly 100 responses in the initial week of trying this idea out, that is so freaking cool. I want you to know that I legitimately read every response. Thank you for taking the time, there were a lot of interesting ideas to explore, and reading all of them gives me a better idea of where your head is at. |
| Thank you to those of you who took the time to fill out the form with the sole purpose of acknowledging me. I received your kindness and affirmations, thank you. As I mentioned in my introduction email, I do this work for me. But I also do find so much joy in the connections that are made while sharing in the football/Fantasy space with others. If you ever want to reach out, please do. You can find me on Twitter , and you'll be able to email me as soon as we have an FFT newsletter inbox prepared. My availability is often maxed out, but I'm happy to connect and build community in this space as much as time allows it. |
| Welcome to the lab. Let's put these topics under the microscope. |
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| Caleb Williams |
| The talent is on full display if you watch Caleb Williams play football. Even amid a pretty dysfunctional offensive environment, Williams showcased mobility, anticipation, ability to manipulate space and angles, arm talent and touch, and a little bit of the undefined. Call it what you will, but I'm going with wizardry as a label for it today. |
| Take that profile and insert it into an offense with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, D'Andre Swift, and Cole Kmet, and it's easy to get super duper excited about Williams. It's no surprise that he's one of the players that y'all wanted to know more about in our first installation of 'In The Lab.' |
| Quarterback is the Fantasy position that I feel the least confident in my ability to analyze (unless you include K and DST). I have a difficult time ever feeling confident in my ability to separate situations from performance when it comes to quantifying results and finding predictive metrics at the position. Two that I do keep a close eye on are scramble rate and sacks per pressure. In both cases, I was underwhelmed with what I found regarding Williams during his collegiate career. |
| Among 30 quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 or 2 during the time I have the data available (dating back to 2017), the average scramble rate was 6.5%. Williams had a career rate of 6.2%. That rate dropped with each progressive season, finishing at 5.4% in 2023. Displayed below, you'll find the range he fell in among recent QB prospects. |
Scramble rate:
(Career collegiate data) |
14.1% -- Jayden Daniels
13.9% -- Jalen Hurts
11.4% -- Justin Fields
11.1% -- Drake Maye
9.9% -- Lamar Jackson
9.4% -- Kyler Murray
8.9% -- Anthony Richardson
8.9% -- Kenny Pickett
7.1% -- Joe Burrow
7.0% -- Josh Allen
6.6% -- Will Levis
6.2% -- Caleb Williams |
| There's clearly a difference between Williams and some of the elite rushing quarterbacks that we have seen pile up Fantasy points in this regard. Williams has the athleticism and feel for space to be an effective scrambler, but his collegiate rates don't suggest that we should expect him to contribute a whole lot of rushing production as a pro. We'll see. Josh Allen's rate stands out as the one clear example of a player who changed in a major way as a pro. Maybe we see Williams unlocked in a similar way. |
| The sack per pressure (the percentage of total pressures that resulted in a sack) rate is an important stat for quarterback and offensive success. Sacks are drive killers. Bryce Young had the highest rate in 2023, followed by Zack Wilson, Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, Deshaun Watson, and Will Levis. The two best rates belonged to Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. It's an important metric. |
| I'm worried about Williams (and Jayden Daniels) in this regard. Among 30 quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 or 2 during the time I have the data available (dating back to 2017), Daniels ranks 29th in this metric. Williams ranks 23rd. Displayed below is the range where those two fall. |
Pressures per sack:
(Career collegiate data) |
5.20 -- Daniel Jones
5.17 -- Caleb Williams
4.92 -- Baker Mayfield
4.57 -- Joe Burrow
4.55 -- Zach Wilson
4.25 -- Justin Fields
4.08 -- Jayden Daniels
3.94 -- Will Levis |
| Of course, Burrow's name stands out there. This isn't an end-all-be-all list. And if we expand the range a bit to just include players who fall below the group average (5.9), there's even more reason for optimism. |
Pressures per sack:
(Career collegiate data) |
5.86 -- Josh Allen
5.58 -- Justin Herbert
5.58 -- Lamar Jackson
5.53 -- Kyle Trask
5.51 -- Jalen Hurts
5.50 -- Josh Rosen
5.37 -- Kenny Pickett |
| Okay, so we've got several superstars on that list. Williams is close to that Allen-Herbert-Jackson-Hurts range. |
| You might think that because Josh Allen now ranks first in the NFL in this metric performing poorly in college doesn't matter. But, he is truly the one exception among recent examples. Burrow's rate has remained worse than the league average throughout his career, and he's made little to no improvement since his rookie year. Similarly, Herbert's rate has not changed in any meaningful way. Neither has Lamar Jackson's. Jalen Hurts has shown signs of improvement, he may join Allen as an exception to the rule. Generally speaking, this metric has stuck to quarterbacks. |
| This brings us to Anthony Richardson. Among that group of 30 QBs drafted in Round 1 or 2 since 2017, only Michael Penix has a better career collegiate rate than Richardson. Rushing upside is what Fantasy football players are so excited about, but Richardson offers so much beyond that to inspire optimism for his long-term real-life quarterbacking potential. |
| Anthony Richardson |
| Remember the podcast that I couldn't stop raving about? Nate Tice who was blowing my mind on that podcast also just wrote this free and fantastic film study examining the 'supernova talent' available to Anthony Richardson if able to remain on the field and continue developing the finer points of his game. I am very aroused. |
| This Reception Perception (they do more than just receivers!) article from Derrick Klassen is worth a read if you want to at least do your due diligence in not simply giving in to the hype train and barreling on full-speed ahead. Honestly, I still left that article extremely encouraged, though. |
| Jordan Love |
| This is such an exciting list of players, for real. Jordan Love did some incredible things in 2023. Nate Tice ranked him as his real-life QB5 right now after digging back into his film this offseason. That's wild! That's basically how I felt after getting back into Packers film this offseason. |
| We went Beyond the Boxscore on Love and the Packers offense earlier this offseason, if you want to hear my complete thoughts on him. He has so much potential, I love the diversity of his pass-catching weapons, and Matt LaFleur is scheming guys open on the regular. We may have only seen the beginning of what this offense can be, 2023 might have been Love and the young receiving room simply scratching the surface as everyone learns their roles in LaFleur's design. |
| Jonathan Brooks |
| Jonathan Brooks followed Bijan Robinson as the Texas Longhorns featured back in 2023, and he did so at basically 95% of Robinson's effectiveness. No surprise, then, that an NFL team decided to trade up to make Brooks the RB1 with a Round 2 pick even as he rehabs from a late-season ACL tear. |
| One clear difference between Brooks and Robinson was that Robinson was much better in short-yardage situations. Brooks is a bit on the lighter side (207 pounds, compared to 216 for Robinson) for a back with a three-down skill set. He may prove to need a short-yardage grinder to complement him in the backfield. |
| As a rusher and a pure athletic mover, Brooks is wildly impressive. He consistently surprises me with the angles he was able to create to glide by defenders. Carolina's offense will be designed by Dave Canales, who we saw masterfully set up Rachaad White with opportunities to out-angle defenders in space in the screen game in 2023. Brooks seems to have even more juice than White, he could do some special stuff as a receiver. |
| I worry about the rush design that Canales created in Tampa Bay. It was one of the worst in recent memory, statistically. Brooks seems to be a better rusher than White, so maybe he'll be able to elevate that efficiency. |
| For Fantasy purposes, I've been landing Brooks a ton in season-long leagues. My brother and I just finished drafting seven new start-up Dynasty leagues together, and Brooks was one of the running backs we hoped to land after ignoring the position through the first five rounds. We didn't land him in a single draft. The contrast between public perception of Brooks in season-long drafts relative to Dynasty startups has been eye-opening. I've been able to get him in Dynasty rookie drafts, but he's been highly sought after in start-ups. |
| People seem bullish on Brooks as a prospect but hesitant to invest in the Panthers for 2024. That's fair. I see a few paths to this offense succeeding if Bryce Young takes a step forward, so I'm happy to grab Brooks, Diontae Johnson, and Xavier Legette at depressed season-long ADPs. |
| Xavier Worthy |
| I was really encouraged by what I found in Xavier Worthy's data. He and Hollywood Brown feel redundant -- they each have top-line speed but are ideally utilized as flanker and slot weapons who move around the formation and work the short and intermediate areas of the field too, rather than being primarily stuck outside and asked to win deep as the 'X' receiver. |
| Statistically, Worthy was much more productive than his teammate Adonai Mitchell when facing press coverage at Texas. Matt Harmon felt that Worthy had a lot to improve upon when it comes to beating press coverage, and I trust his eyes more than any numbers that I find in a database. It will be so interesting to see how Andy Reid uses his new weapon. Hopefully, he'll find creative ways to get Worthy as many free releases off the line as possible so that defenders can't get their hands on him in press coverage. |
| We have seen Reid be adaptable in his use of pre-snap motion. Over the 2018-2020 seasons, the Chiefs used pre-snap motion 51% of the time. Over the 2021-23 seasons, Kansas City's 63% rate ranks only behind the Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers (each team with a 68% rate). |
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| Travis Kelce is the player who Reid has drawn up by far the most pre-snap motion goodness to, with 82 targets as the motion man across the two seasons. Reid has designed 40 combined pre-snap motion targets for Mecole Hardman and Kadarius Toney during that time, though, and we could see a large portion of those looks go Worthy's way. Those have been super valuable opportunities for those two, by the way. Hardman has averaged 2.95 PPR points per pre-snap motion target, and Toney's rate was a nearly identical 2.96. For reference, the league average on pre-snap motion targets in 2023 was 1.95 PPR points per. |
| If you want to learn more about who Worthy was at Texas and who he might be as a pro, give that article that I linked at the outset a read. There were several interesting nuggets in there. He looks like much more than just a deep threat to me. |
| Chris Olave |
| Chris Olave was the star of this massive Twitter thread that I put together detailing man coverage data this morning. I highlighted him because Olave has shredded man coverage, which is a fantastic early-career signal for young wide receivers. |
| The coolest part of Olave's inclusion in that Twitter thread, in my opinion, was the parallels drawn to Brandon Aiyuk, Nico Collins, Tyreek Hill, and other wide receivers who have benefited from playing in the "Kyle Shanahan coaching tree." Olave's route tree has been super vanilla over the past two years, which is clearly depicted in his "go route" rate. Olave's go route rate was nearly double Aiyuk's in 2023. My speculation is that maybe new Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak (the 2023 passing game specialist for the 49ers) will add some much-needed nuance to Olave's route tree. Aiyuk, Collins, and Hill have each benefited from running more post/corner routes than go routes. Those routes have significantly more productive for Fantasy purposes than go routes, and Olave has barely been given the opportunity to use them over the past two seasons. Maybe they get added to his arsenal in Year 3. |
| Kyle Pitts |
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| Hello, I'm Jacob Gibbs and I'm a Kyle Pitts-aholic. I have an unhealthy relationship with drafting Kyle Pitts and need to acknowledge that to you before we go any further. I know that a lot of you are getting to know me for the first time this week, it's my responsibility to be fully transparent with you about this. I will never give up on Kyle Pitts. Don't tell me about sunk cost fallacy. |
| If you choose to listen to me talk about Kyle Pitts, you are knowingly considering the advice of a sick man who outsources his validation to Kyle Pitts and values that relationship over his own well-being. |
| I truly believe that this is the year for Pitts!!! You have full awareness of my condition. Any influence you allow me to impart from this point on is YOUR responsibility. |
| Kyle Pitts has had the worst circumstances of any skill position player in the NFL. |
| There's the red pill. If you want in on the suffering, read that article and join me as a Kyle Pitts believer. |
| Dalton Kincaid |
| Dalton Kincaid was the most-common answer in the initial 'In The Lab' intake form. I received 12 Kincaid votes, which is pretty nuts considering that the second-most common answer at any position was a tie between Pitts and Trey McBride with 11 votes each. Jonathan Brooks was the only other player who received double-digit mentions. Clearly, nailing that "next" tier of tight ends is going to play a massive role in 2024 Fantasy outcomes. Or maybe all three will ball, and everyone will be happy this year. Well, maybe not those who reached for Sam LaPorta a round or two ahead of this trio. |
| In Tuesday's "Do Not Draft List," I included Sam LaPorta and mentioned that I believe the ceiling to Kincaid's range of outcomes to be higher. I'd like to expound. |
| First, I want to acknowledge that Kincaid scored just two touchdowns to LaPorta's 10. Touchdowns are so crucial to tight end Fantasy upside. Also seemingly working against Kincaid in terms of upside was his 5.9-yard average depth of target. LaPorta's was 7.1 yards. |
| If his collegiate data is any indication, what we saw in Year 1 is not necessarily who Kincaid is or will be as a pro. Kincaid had a career collegiate aDOT of 10.6 yards, compared to 7.9 for LaPorta. Kincaid scored 19 touchdowns on 165 career targets, while LaPorta scored 5 on 238. Kincaid's career yard per route run rate (2.28) ranks behind only Brock Bowers (2.72) and Pitts (2.46) among tight ends selected in Round 1 or 2 since 2017. Kincaid was an elite prospect who was selected first among an awesome TE draft class. |
| As a rookie, Kincaid wasn't very efficient as a downfield route runner. I filtered out any plays with a route depth (the distance from the line of scrimmage where the initial cut in a route came) below five yards to gain a visualization of how Kincaid fared when Buffalo allowed him to be more than a short-yardage safety-valve. He ranked 12th among 34 qualifiers, ahead of short-target king Evan Engram and just behind David Njoku and Cole Kmet. If sorting by target per route run rate among that split, we find Kincaid all the way down at 28th below Noah Gray and just above Durham Smythe. Josh Allen did not look his way often when Kincaid ran deep routes. |
| Hopefully that changes if we are going to see Kincaid's upside unlocked. This team sure seems to need weapons to challenge defenses down the field. |
| Ultimately, any chance Kincaid has of realistically tapping into Fantasy upside is going to be tied to his playing time. He registered a 71% route participation as a rookie, ranking 11th at TE. That rate fell to 65% if only including games that Dawson Knox suited up. We need that rate to climb closer to LaPorta's 79% rate if Kincaid has any chance of realizing his upside. And even then, some of the stuff that I outlined about his role last year may still limit Kincaid's upside. |
| Massive target volume is available in Buffalo, particularly in the red zone. Depending on how much of that volume falls on Kincaid, the Fantasy results could be huge in his second season. Until we see him as a featured part of the offense, this all remains hypothetical, though. |
| Trey McBride |
| My guy Dan Schneier recently asked me for three bold takes for the FFT Magazine, and I chose McBride for one of them. Oh, and when I say "my guy," I mean my lovely Beyond the Boxscore podcasting partner and the incredible FFT newsletter editor who I berate with angry 'I Think You Should Leave' gifs in response to even the slightest adjustment made to my perfect copy. Love you, Schneier! Dan is the man, please follow him on Twitter if you aren't already. |
| BOLD TAKE: Trey McBride finishes 50 PPR points ahead of the next-highest scoring TE |
| McBride totaled 1,121 receiving yards in 2021 which is the highest single-season total of any tight end prospect in TruMedia's database (dating back to 2017). On a per-route basis, McBride's 2021 was more productive than any collegiate season turned in by Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, or Dalton Kincaid. The only tight end prospect who can rival his collegiate per-route data is Brock Bowers. |
| In his first season as a starting NFL tight end, McBride finished first at his position in targets and first downs per route run. Only George Kittle averaged more yards per route run. McBride has been a statistical anomaly at the TE position through the early stages of his career, and I want to bet on that type of player. |
| McBride became a full-time player in Week 8. He recorded a target share above 20% in every single game from that point on. Sam LaPorta had a target share above 20% in just 6 of 17 games. Travis Kelce hit that mark in 10 of 15. McBride went 12 for 12. He finished as a top-12 Fantasy TE in 10 of 12 games during that stretch. |
| All evidence points towards McBride being unique in his ability to draw targets and convert them into yardage. I expect him to remain a focal point of Arizona's offense while Marvin Harrison Jr.'s addition only helps raise the roof and create more space for McBride to operate in the short-to-intermediate area. McBride's average depth of target was only 6.6 yards, MHJ had an aDOT of 13.5 yards at Ohio State. McBride was a PPR cheat code in 2023, and I expect more of the same in Year 3. I noticed a few questions about non-PPR formats in the 'ITL' Google form and will be sending non-PPR rankings in the future -- for that crowd, know that players whose value comes more through touchdowns (Sam LaPorta or Mark Andrews, in this instance) are generally going to be the preference over someone like McBride who scores so many of his points through receptions and yardage. |
| Offensive line questions |
| Offensive line evaluation is way out of my wheelhouse. Of course, it's still important, so I outsource it to the best places that I know to. Brandon Thorn has been my favorite person to listen to analyze offensive line play, you can find his 2024 rankings on Establish the Run. If looking for a free rankings set, this reddit poster compiled a list of free sources and aggregated those rankings. |
| As today's initial discussion about rush schemes may have illuminated, line play is a vast topic with lots of nuance. Understanding it is going to take some time. I'd start with those resources, and also be sure to read the team-by-team breakdowns that I provide in this newsletter space over the course of July and the first week of August. I'll cover any key offensive line changes and my expectations for each unit as it pertains to Fantasy football in that space. |
| I am interested in learning more about offensive line play and the impact the battle at the line has on the results that we get on the football field. If you have any specific ideas or questions that you'd like explored, put them in this google form! |
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