| |
|
| Friday, September 6, 2024 |
| Well, the NFL's return could not have been much more exciting than that! Thursday's game featured a bit of everything. I honestly feel spoiled. Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are so insanely cool, they're coached by absolute legends, and the roster around each of them is stocked full of awesome talent. Isaiah Likely was on another level last night! He was doing everything! How about Isiah Pacheco ? Four avoided tackles, a goal-line touchdown, a massive 73% route participation, and a classic play-til-the-whistle first down where he rolled over a grounded defender without letting his knees touch the grass before getting up and running for another several yards. We got heroic efforts from so many places last night! Check out this pass pro rep from Justice Hill -- listed at 5'10" and 194 pounds, Baltimore's third-down back stood in against all 6'6" and 310 pounds of Chris Jones for a solid 3-4 seconds to protect his quarterback's life. |
| And of course, with two out-of-the-box play-callers, we were treated to plenty of fun little wrinkles in this game. Look at Zay Flowers hiding behind his offensive line before running out into the flat (only to have Nelson Agholor whiff on his blocking assignment): |
| |
| Football is back, baby! Let's look forward to what else Week 1 has in store for us! |
| |
| Before we do, I have to again plug Beyond the Boxscore. This show really means a lot to me. Friends and colleagues are taking time out of their busy work week to come talk ball and help Dan Schneier and I build something that we are passionate about. I really appreciate all of the support from everyone -- you included -- that allows us to do this work. |
| Please make time before Sunday to check out the episode that I recorded with Dan and Rich Hribar on Thursday. I do think that it will be worth your time! That episode is only going to be on YouTube, and that may be the case for a bit. Dan and I are producing this weekly Thursday Beyond the Boxscore drop on our own, and neither of us has any experience with producing. Dan is putting in extra time trying to learn the skills to produce and edit a weekly show and have it available to FFT listeners on all platforms, but that may take some time. He's got a lot on his plate! Please do give Dan a follow and thank him for his effort! |
| Thank you! |
| One last programming note before getting into today's info -- usually, Friday newsletters will feature an 'In The Lab' installment, an interactive newsletter post where I provide more detail on the topics of interest picked out by the FFT Newsletter readers. This week, I broke the typical Wednesday newsletter offering into two parts. On Wednesday, I covered pass-game matchup data. Today, we'll cover the other two topics that will usually be included in the weekly Wednesday newsletter -- "The Battle Up Front," and "Under Pressure." |
| Our typical Wednesday newsletter post will include: |
| The Battle Up Front -- Rush scheme data, offensive vs. defensive line matchup data, and front seven injury notes. Essentially, I'm going to put the battle between the big boys under a microscope to get an idea of which side may dictate the direction of the game. |
| Under Pressure -- How do certain quarterbacks perform when under pressure and how blitzes and pressures affect the target distribution. |
| This week, I'm pushing these two to Friday's newsletter. Typically, Friday will be an 'In The Lab' installment, an interactive newsletter post where I provide more detail on the topics of interest picked out by the FFT Newsletter readers. Today, we'll focus only on one specific type of matchup data: |
| Coverage Data -- Please help me come up with a cool name for this one. The emphasis is on which coverage types may dictate a change in target distribution. More zone-heavy schemes typically result in higher target rates for running backs, tight ends, and slot receivers. A more man-heavy and/or press-heavy matchup may lead to more opportunities for perimeter wide receivers. Some quarterbacks are better at reading certain coverages. I'll highlight which matchups stand out to me each week in this space. |
| The Battle Up Front |
| |
| I watch a lot of anime. One of my absolute favorites was made before I was even born -- "Slam Dunk," it's exactly what it sounds like. It's just good old-fashioned '90s fun, boys being boys with lots of groovy music, ridiculous fight scenes, and powerhouse dunks. The protagonist is a silly delusional oversized boy -- a self-labeled "genius" who can't help but indulge in his own narcissism at every turn. He is sure that he is the star. |
| My favorite line of the show is delivered to this foolish man-child by his team captain: "The one who controls the rebounds controls the game." |
| It's so true. And it proves to be a turning point in the team's success, as the protagonist is actually a prolific athlete and rebounder. If not for the team captain emphasizing the importance of rebounding, though, the self-obsessed freshman never would have taken the initiative to engage in doing the dirty work. I'm here to be your Captain Akagi today and encourage you to engage in the dirty work. I know that it's more fun to watch receivers run routes than to watch offensive linemen block. I know that it's more fun to watch a quarterback process his reads and navigate the pocket than to keep your eyes glued to the work being put in by the opposing defensive coordinator who is trying to collapse said pocket. Are we here to have fun or to win?! (I'm here for both, to be honest, I'm just doing my best Akagi impression) |
| The team that controls the line controls the game. The battle up front isn't what gets put on highlight reels, but is often what dictates a game's end result. Who has what it takes to win the battle in the trenches? Whose dirty work will pay off on a week-to-week basis? That's what we're going to focus on in this weekly advanced matchup space. |
| Josh Jacobs may serve as the Packers' offensive engine in Week 1 |
| The Eagles ranked 30th in defensive EPA per RB rush in 2023 and moved on from veterans Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham. There's definitely talent on this D-Line (2022 first-rounder Jordan Davis and 2023 first-rounder Jalen Carter have shown flashes), but this looks like a spot where the Packers O-Line could win at the point of attack. Philly will be without starting middle linebacker Devin White for this game, but he has been one of the worst run-defenders among qualified linebackers recently. |
| Even though Philly's run defense numbers were poor in 2023, all things equal, opponents chose to attack the Eagles with the pass. Philly's situation-neutral (score within six points) pass rate was the fourth-highest in 2023. The Eagles were really just a bad defense all around in 2023, especially towards the end of the season. |
| Philly's defense will almost definitely improve under Vic Fangio, but the on-paper improvements are pass-defense pieces. Edge rusher Bryce Huff has unreal quickness and may be a problem for Jordan Love on Friday. The Eagles added a cornerback in Rounds 1 and 2 of the 2024 NFL Draft. There was not a whole lot of emphasis placed on the run defense. Fangio defenses have been elite against the pass in the past and this Eagles iteration may prove to be as well. This will be an awesome test for the young Packers' passing attack, but they may just defer and hand it off to Josh Jacobs for the easy answers. |
| A quick note on Saquon Barkley |
| Kellen Moore's Chargers used mostly zone rushing, with a heavy emphasis on inside zone. This preseason, we saw the Eagles use inside zone rushing on over 50% of all rushes, compared to a league-low 11% outside zone rush rate. We're going to be a lot of shotgun inside zone carries in this offense. |
| I bring this up because the Packers ranked 31st in rushing EPA (second-easiest matchup for opposing run games) on outside zone rushes in 2023 but ranked sixth against inside zone. The game script sets up well for Barkley, but this looks like a neutral or even negative matchup. This Packers defense has a ton of talent -- seven former Round 1 selections, including five (three starters) on the front seven. Overall, Green Bay ranked 20th in defensive EPA per rush on RB carries in 2023. For what it's worth, the Packers had the single-highest situation-neutral opponent run rate in 2023. I'm not advising you to bench Saquon Barkley. We're probably going to see a lot of Barkley in this spot. It might only result in something like 18-70 on the ground if it's a bunch of inside hand-offs, though. My guess is that he'll need to find the end zone to be a good Fantasy option in this matchup. |
| |
| This is as prime of a spot as James Cook is going to get |
| The Cardinals ranked dead last in defensive EPA per RB rush (a wild -0.13 mark) on man/gap and power runs in 2023. Only the Rams used that type of run-blocking more than the Bills in 2023. For reference on just how bad that -0.13 EPA rate is, I removed man/gap and power runs from the data set -- on all other runs, Arizona's defense still ranked last, but the rate was +0.01. Wild stuff. |
| Kenneth Walker could be the Fantasy RB1 this week |
| The Denver Broncos had a league-worst yards before contact allowed as well as the second-worst missed-tackle rate (14.9%) on RB rush attempts in 2023. That's not a good combination! Denver's defensive coordinator returned for another go-round in 2024, and the Broncos didn't have much spending money to upgrade the defense this summer. |
| |
| I was surprised to find out that the Jacksonville Jaguars ranked SECOND against outside zone rushing in 2023 |
| The Jags added former 49ers front-line fixture Arik Armstead this summer and have a lot of talent defensively. New defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen engineered the NFL's best run defense in Atlanta in 2023. Hayden Winks gave Jacksonville a "sneaky top-10" ranking as he projected all 32 defenses for 2024. This is an exciting Jaguars defense. Will their conditioning be enough to handle the high heat in Miami, though? |
| I bring up the outside zone note because of the matchup against the Dolphins run scheme. Of course, a lot (32%) of De'Von Achane's runs were outside zone attempts in Mike McDaniel's system. For what it's worth, he averaged 7.5 yards per attempt on those runs compared to 8.1 on all other attempts. He's just really good. I'm not too worried about this matchup note. Early in the week, I viewed this as a neutral or even positive matchup, though. I no longer do. |
| Don't forget about Aaron Jones |
| I'm psyched to see Jones in Kevin O'Connell's offense. I didn't draft much of him, but he's one of my favorite running backs of the past decade. I don't love placing bets on 29-year-old running backs, but I'm fine with it if the bet only involves Week 1. The last time that we saw Jones, he was handling a large workload and producing efficiently (he always does when he's healthy!) with it: |
| |
| In Week 1, Jones faces a Giants defense that has a lot of new faces. New York has a new defensive coordinator, a new star edge rusher in Brian Burns (never been much of a run-stopper), a new defensive tackle (a journeyman who graded out as one of the worst run-stopping interior linemen in 2023), and a second- and third-round pick in the secondary. I'm not so sure that the run defense is going to be improved in a major way, maybe Dan can provide more insight for us as a Giants insider. |
| The Giants ranked 27th in defensive EPA per RB rush in 2023. New York was pretty good against outside zone rushing, which is featured heavily in O'Connell's offense, but was not good at all against man/gap rushing (again, Dan, feel free to correct anything here. I'm just citing stats). I think Jones could gash this defense in the man/gap run game, and also a featured part of KOC's offense. Among 44 active RBs with 50+ man/gap attempts combined over the past three seasons, only Breece Hall has a higher yard-per-rush average than Jones. He's been in a zone-heavy run scheme in Green Bay, and more man/gap rushing is an exciting aspect of looking forward to Jones' 2024 season (one of the only things I'm excited to watch in Minnesota, unfortunately). |
| Devin Singletary may see a ton of playing time, but I'm not confident it will amount to much |
| |
| This serves as a good segue into the "Under Pressure" portion of today's newsletter. No defense blitzes more than the Brian Flores-led Vikings. That is a note to know for the opposing passing game, of course, but the blitzing also serves to fill gaps against opposing run games. Minnesota ranked fifth-best at limiting opposing yards per RB rush (3.8) in 2023. |
| Quick front-seven injury notes: |
| Guard Isaac Seumalo is out for Pittsburgh.Guard Sidy Sow DNP for New England. Center Jaxon Powers-Johnson DNP Thursday (illness) for Las Vegas Round 2 rookie interior defensive lineman Jer'Zahn Newton DNP for WashingtonDefensive end Logan Hall DNP for Tampa BayRight tackle Rob Havenstein (ankle) limited practice on Wednesday and Thursday for LAR |
| Under Pressure |
| |
| Both Rich Hribar and I are optimistic that the Seahawks offense will exceed expectations under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb in 2024, but Dan remains cautious because of his concerns about the offensive line. |
| Fortunately, in Week 1, Seattle faces a Broncos defense that struggled to get pressure in 2023. Denver blitzed at the fifth-highest rate but ranked 20th in pressure rate. Denver's pressure rate when blitzing was the second-lowest, ahead of only Carolina. |
| When blitzed but not pressured in 2023, Geno fed a 33% target per route run rate to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. In general, when blitzed, Smith's top target was DK Metcalf. |
| Will the Rams be able to put pressure on Jared Goff without Aaron Donald? |
| The Rams ranked 16th in pressure rate (35.4%) in 2023. On 146 opponent dropbacks without Donald on the field, the Rams had a pressure rate of just 26.7%. No quarterback has been more sensitive to pressure than Goff in recent years. |
| When pressured, Goff looks to his safety valves. His running backs have seen a huge boost in targets when he's pressured. Sam LaPorta had a higher target rate than Amon-Ra St. Brown when Goff was pressured last year. |
| |
| What can we expect from Daniel Jones vs. Flores and the Vikes? |
| Jones has not been affected in any meaningful way by the blitz. In fact, his off-target rate vs. the blitz over the past two seasons is among the lowest in the NFL. That's partially due to him making quick throws to his hot read when blitzed. That could be Singletary, it was often Saquon Barkley. It could be Wan'Dale Robinson. Or, it could be Malik Nabers . For what it's worth, the Giants did not use Nabers in the slot much at all this preseason. |
| Jones has been willing to take shots down the field against the blitz if he likes his look on the outside, though. He's found success targeting Darius Slayton vs. the blitz. Slayton has 367 receiving yards on just 18 receptions when Jones has been blitzed over the past two seasons. We could see Nabers become the primary read for Jones to take deep shots to if he finds his star rookie receiver in one-on-one coverage when blitzed. Typically, blitzing leads to increased target rates for opposing WR1s. |
| Jayden Daniels will immediately be put to the test! |
| |
| Todd Bowles is one of the most aggressive defensive play callers in the game and presents a really fun Week 1 challenge for rookie Jayden Daniels. |
| Reebs gave some great notes on Daniels vs. pressure from his collegiate career during our discussion on Beyond the Boxscore. |
| |
| I am worried about Anthony Richardson against Houston |
| I have a tremendous amount of respect for Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans. His Texans defense ranked 13th in pressure rate while blitzing at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL last year, and he gets to pair 2023's number three overall selection Will Anderson Jr. with longtime Minnesota Viking Danielle Hunter to create what may prove to be the most dangerous edge-rushing duo in the league. |
| My guess is that we see a lot of Jonathan Taylor runs up the gut to try to make things easier on Richardson and Indy's tackles in this spot. The Colts have the interior linemen to push any defense around, but it's worth noting that the Texans allowed the second-lowest yards before contact per rush to opposing running backs in 2023. Opposing running backs averaged 3.5 yards per rush on runs up the middle against Houston, that was the lowest rate in the NFL. |
| I expect Houston's passing attack to shred Indy's secondary. It's quite possible that we see the Texans get an early lead and force Indy to be more aggressive with the dropback game. That worries me against this pass rush. I'm still starting Richardson over all but a handful of quarterbacks, for what it's worth. We may see him with double-digit rush attempts in an attempt to find answers in this matchup. |
| Caleb Williams gets a real test in his first pro game |
| This Titans defense may be much better than people realize. As a Chiefs fan, lockdown corner L'Jarius Sneed ( DJ Moore had just 3-41-1 receiving against the Chiefs last year) is my favorite addition to the defense, but jeez, we have to talk about this awesome front seven. In Round 2 of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Titans were able to add all 6'4" and 362 pounds of T'Vondre Sweat to a defensive line that already had Jeffrey Simmons. The Titans also acquired linebacker Ernest Jones IV from the Rams, he ranked first among 270 qualified front-seven players in pressures per pass rush in 2023. Tennessee also added linebacker Kenneth Murray. He ranks 16th out of 98 qualified linebackers in pressures per pass rush during the time he's been a pro. |
| This Titans defense may be able to really get after opposing quarterbacks. I like Chicago's offensive line a lot. If any team has the size up front to deal with Tennessee's defensive line, it's Chicago. The strength of Chicago's line is its strength, though, I see this as more of a mauling run-blocking unit than an elite pass-blocking unit. It will be very interesting to see how the Bears are able to handle what may be a blitz-heavy Titans pass rush. |
| We may see a lot of manufactured touches for Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel vs. the Jets |
| Just like Demeco Ryans, Jets defensive play-caller Robert Salah learned a lot during his time in San Francisco. The Jets, 49ers, and Texans all play defense similarly. Each defense ranked in the top half of the league in pressure rate in 2023 even while ranking bottom-five in blitz rate. The Jets had the second-lowest blitz rate and the fifth-highest pressure rate. This defense is nasty. |
| |
| |
| Purdy has been willing to stand in and deliver downfield shots to Brandon Aiyuk when pressured, but I'm not so sure how much of that he will want to do with Sauce Gardner often being the corner covering Aiyuk. The Jets would get my vote for best perimeter WR coverage in the league, which has me expecting more opportunities for the catch-and-run guys -- namely, Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle. |
| I'll be in your inbox every weekday and every Sunday morning for the foreseeable future! The NFL is back, baby! I am so grateful and excited to be able to deliver this newsletter to you as we navigate the 2024 season together. Thank you! This is going to be fun! |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
| |
| | | | | NFL Kickoff | | Big Ten on CBS | New season, new rules, new action and it all starts SUNDAY! Watch your local game live this Sunday at 1 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
Watch Live
| | The Cy-Hawk Series is back between Iowa State and Iowa! Who will break the series tie and bring home the Cy-Hawk trophy? Find out live this Saturday at 3:30 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
Watch Live
|
|
| |
| |
