Special Briefing
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PRESIDENTIAL DAILY BRIEF

Under Attack

The Indian Air Strikes Dossier

This is an OZY Special Briefing, an extension of the Presidential Daily Brief. The Special Briefing tells you what you need to know about an important issue, individual or story that is making news. Each one serves up an interesting selection of facts, opinions, images and videos in order to catch you up and vault you ahead.

WHAT TO KNOW

What’s happening? After 40 Indian soldiers died in a Feb. 14 suicide car bombing in Kashmir, Indian air force jets crossed over into Pakistani territory early on Tuesday morning and bombed what New Delhi claims was “the biggest terrorist camp” of the Jaish-e-Mohammed, a U.N.-proscribed militant group that has claimed responsibility for the original attack. Pakistan claims the Indian bombs didn’t damage any property or kill anyone, while India says a “large number” of militants were killed. Either way, the intrusion into Pakistani air space by Indian jets has escalated tensions between the nuclear-armed South Asian neighbors. The last time the Indian air force crossed the Line of Control — the de facto border between the nations in disputed Kashmir — was during the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971.  

Why does it matter? Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan had warned after the Feb. 14 attack that if India launched a cross-border strike, “Pakistan will not just think about retaliation; Pakistan will retaliate.” Now, he’s under domestic pressure to act on those words. The country’s military spokesperson warned India after today’s strikes: “It is your turn now to wait and get ready for our surprise.” A proportional response could include a limited air incursion into Indian territory, followed by bombing. But any escalation could complicate an already tense geopolitical balance in South Asia, all while the U.S. is trying to withdraw from Afghanistan, India is heading toward national elections and China is building the marquee project — an economic corridor connecting Xinjiang to the Arabian Sea — of its Belt and Road Initiative through Pakistan.

HOW TO THINK ABOUT IT

A test for the U.S. ... After Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorists attacked the Indian Parliament in December 2001, India and Pakistan lined up more than a million soldiers on either side of their border, seemingly in preparation for war. But after the U.S. — which needed Pakistan for its post-9/11 war on terror in Afghanistan — intervened, India eventually backed off. The U.S. has once again turned to Pakistan for help in bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table, and President Donald Trump has said his team’s been in touch with both India and Pakistan to defuse tensions in the aftermath of the Feb. 14 attack. This time, though, it isn’t working … yet.

… and China. With a price tag of $62 billion, the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor is by far the largest project within the BRI, the grand network of highways, ports and railroads Beijing is building to connect Asia, Africa and Europe. The problem? The highway passes through Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, which India claims. New Delhi has protested against the project as a violation of its sovereignty, but Beijing hasn’t budged. As it is, critics have raised questions about the economic viability of the CPEC. Now, India has demonstrated the project is within the range of its fighter jets, and Pakistan’s air defense isn’t robust enough to stop them, raising Chinese fears of a strike on the highway in the name of blocking terrorist movements.

Shifting global winds. In some ways, though, the Indian strikes are an acknowledgment that its efforts at penalizing Pakistan through diplomacy haven’t worked. After the Feb. 14 attack, Indian officials said they would work with international partners to “isolate Pakistan.” But just this week, Trump’s top envoy for Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, publicly thanked Pakistan for facilitating the U.S.-Taliban talks that are the centerpiece of America’s efforts to find a respectable exit from the Afghan war. And China, Pakistan’s largest economic and strategic benefactor, has refused to criticize its friend. For Khan, and Pakistan’s military that many believe is the true power behind the PM, that could mean a position of support for the retaliation they’ve promised.  

But Modi won’t mind. Irrespective of how the world responds to the cross-border bombings, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stands politically strengthened today, ahead of the country’s national elections — the largest democratic exercise in history. Two weeks ago, his government was battling corruption allegations. Now, the national discourse in India is centered around tensions with Pakistan. If history is a guide, that’s good for Modi. National crises just ahead of elections have in the past helped incumbent governments return to power. In 1984, when then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated, her Congress party won a record majority in parliament. In 1999 the Bharatiya Janata Party — Modi’s party — returned to power after a brief war with Pakistan. Is it Modi’s turn?       

WHAT TO READ

Jammu and Kashmir: Why Is India Bombing in Pakistan and Are They Going Back to War? by Sam Earle in Newsweek
“Tensions are never far from the surface in India-Pakistan relations, with Kashmir almost always at the center.”

Nuclear-Armed India and Pakistan Face Off in Renewed Escalation, by Iain Marlow and Kamran Haider on Bloomberg
“Facing a general election due by May, Modi is under substantial pressure after blaming Pakistan for the worst attack on security forces in Kashmir in several decades earlier this month.”

WHAT TO WATCH

India Launches Air Strikes on Pakistan at Kashmir Border

“The strike comes amidst heightened tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors after a militant attack killed 40 Indian troops in the disputed Kashmir region.”

India’s Media: Drumming the Beats of War?

“The attack has provoked a national outpouring of grief on mainstream media channels and the spewing of lots of venom against various targets.”

WHAT TO SAY AT THE WATERCOOLER

Fake news. Both Indian and Pakistani media have published footage claiming to be of the attack, viewed hundreds of thousands of times on social media. Other sources shared the same videos, claiming they were proof of a Pakistani counterstrike. In fact, all the footage was from a Pakistani air force demonstration five years ago.

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