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Friday, December 31, 2021
No games Thursday means no stress. No decisions. But, you know, it also means no games. Not getting off to a good start, or watching your opponent's stars flop. So, it all comes down to Sunday (and, potentially, Monday) this week. There are nine games at 1:00 PM EST, five in the 4:00 PM window, the Sunday night Packers-Vikings game and then the Browns and Steelers on Monday night.  It's going to be a stress-filled 36-hours. 
So in today's newsletter, I'm going right to the point. First, let's catch you up on the latest news from around the league heading into Friday's pivotal injury reports, and then I took a bunch of your questions from my email inbox and answered those, so you'll find that at the bottom of the newsletter, too. And please, keep sending in your emails to Chris.Towers@ViacomCBS.com – I'll respond to as many as I can by Sunday morning and will include some key ones in my Sunday newsletter if I can, too, along with the updated rankings and injury news.  
But first, here's all of the content from the FFT team you need to set your lineups:
Week 17 Injury Report
First of all … COVID updates
At this point, it seems like there are more players coming off the COVID list than added on, which is good news. It means we have fewer absences to worry about, and it also means that the players on the COVID list currently have a better chance of coming back by Sunday than they would have previously. 
We really don't have that many big names we're worrying about right now, anyway. Carson Wentz would be the biggest one, because his absence would make it awfully tough to trust someone like Michael Pittman, though Jonathan Taylor would be a must-start player either way.
Here are the players were watching on the COVID list as of Thursday evening:
And now, here are the injuries we're keeping track of heading into the official injury reports Friday: 
QB injuries
  • Lamar Jackson (ankle) – Jackson went backwards Thursday, it seems. He practiced on a limited basis Wednesday but was obviously hobbled, and then he sat out Thursday's session, so I'm not feeling optimistic about his chances of playing. Tyler Huntley will be a top 12 QB against the Rams if Jackson is out. 
  • Justin Fields (ankle) – Fields was limited in practice yet again Thursday, which puts him in question for Sunday. Andy Dalton (groin) has practiced in full, so he'll be the starter if Fields can't go; Fields will be a mid-range QB2 if he can play. 
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (thumb) – Garoppolo was unable to practice Thursday for the second day in a row, so I'm assuming he won't play. He doesn't need to practice to play, necessarily, but Kyle Shanahan has been gassing up Trey Lance, so I'm expecting him to start -- and he's a top-12 QB if he does. 
  • Jared Goff (knee) – Goff has yet to practice this week, so it seems safe to assume Tim Boyle will start for the Lions again. He drags the overall upside of this offense down, but not enough to make Amon-Ra St. Brown and D'Andre Swift worth starting. He probably just makes them the only players worth starting. 
  • Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) – Bridgewater isn't playing this week, which means Drew Lock is starting again. That's not good news for the offense as a whole. 
RB injuries
  • Dalvin Cook (illness) – Cook was upgraded to full practice Thursday after he was limited in his return from the COVID list Wednesday. He should be good to go by Sunday, but maybe he takes a few extra plays off here and there? It shouldn't be enough to make him anything less than an RB1. 
  • D'Andre Swift  (shoulder) – Swift has practiced in full two days in a row, so he's going to be playing this week barring a setback. He may not have his normal role where he plays 70-90% of the snaps, but I'm expecting a healthy amount of targets in a great matchup while he splits carries with Jamaal Williams. He's an RB2 for me; I'm taking the risk. 
  • Antonio Gibson  (hip) – Gibson was limited Wednesday with this injury, so the fact that he was out Thursday makes me think this might have been an injury he suffered during practice. The mid-week downgrade in status is never a good sign, so you have to view Gibson as a serious risk now. He's no stranger to playing through injury, but with a tough matchup against the Eagles on the way, Gibson is tough to trust. 
  • James Conner (heel) – Conner has missed practice two days in a row now, so I'm assuming Chase Edmonds will once again be the No. 1 back for the Cardinals . In Week 16 that meant 16 carries and nine targets, and he could have a similar role in what should be a shootout against the Cowboys. Edmonds is a top-10 RB with No. 1 overall upside this week. For what it's worth, Edmonds has been limited so far due to a back injury, so hopefully that isn't enough to make him at risk of missing time. 
  • Saquon Barkley (ankle) – Barkley was upgraded to a limited practice Thursday, so he should be good to play this week. However, he's just a volume-based RB2 in PPR formats at this point, especially as he's played fewer than 60% of the snaps in three straight games and is splitting work with Devontae Booker
  • Elijah Mitchell (knee) – Mitchell has been limited each day in practice so far, so while there's a chance he comes back and faces the Texans, I'm guessing the most likely outcome is he'll play in a timeshare with Jeff Wilson, making them both RB3s. 
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire (shoulder) – As expected, Edwards-Helaire hasn't practiced this week. He's not expected to play, so Darrel Williams is a top-16 RB with expected passing and goal-line work in what could be a shootout. 
  • Jordan Howard (stinger) – Howard was upgraded to a limited practice Thursday, a good sign for his chances to play. Along with Kenneth Gainwell (ankle) upgraded to full practice, that muddies the situation for the Eagles, who are going to be without Miles Sanders (hand) this week. Boston Scott and Howard figure to be the co-leads against Washington, but Gainwell has played short-yardage spoiler at times, and it's not clear if either Howard or Scott will be the No. 1. The Eagles run the ball enough for both to be viable options, but they're more like RB3s for me. 
  • Cam Akers (Achilles) -- Akers has been able to practice without limitations this week, but coach Sean McVay told reporters Akers may not play. The Rams are aiming for Akers to be able to make an impact in the playoffs, so maybe the most likely scenario is Akers returns for Week 18. Either way, Sony Michel is looking like a locked-in borderline RB1 for Week 17. 
WR injuries
  • Kadarius Toney (shoulder) -- Toney hasn't practiced yet this week so it seems safe to assume he's out. He's just had one injury after another all year.  
  • Jakobi Meyers (hamstring) – Meyers has been limited both days in practice, and since it's the Patriots, there's no way of knowing whether that means he's likely or unlikely to play. Nelson Agholor (concussion) hasn't been cleared to play either, so the Patriots could be very shorthanded. 
  • Jamison Crowder (calf) – Crowder has missed both days of practice this week. Braxton Berrios is a viable WR3/4 in PPR formats if Crowder is out. 
  • Rondale Moore (ankle) – Did not practice. Moore's absence would likely make Edmonds an even better starting option. 
TE injuries
  • Tyler Conklin (hamstring) – Conklin was upgraded to a limited practice Thursday, so he's trending toward playing. He's a TE2 against the Packers. 
  • James O'Shaughnessy (hip) – O'Shaughnessy has been unable to practice. Dan Arnold  was designated to return from IR last week before being placed on the COVID list, so if he can get activated this week, he might be worth streaming against the Patriots, even in a tough matchup. Remember, Arnold had at least eight targets in four of five games earlier in the season, averaging 57.2 yards per game on five catches from Weeks 5 through 10. 
  • Jack Doyle (knee/ankle) – Doyle hasn't practiced this week, and his absence could be meaningful in that it could provide Mo Alie-Cox  the opportunity to play a bigger role. He played 90% of the snaps in Week 16 and came away with two catches for 42 yards on four targets. He'd be a viable streamer in deeper leagues. 
#AskFFT Mailbag
Send your questions to Chris.Towers@ViacomCBS.com and I'll get to as many as I can this weekend, and I'll include some in Sunday's newsletter too!
Dave: Any concern with the weather this weekend, especially with temperatures near zero in Green Bay? Surprised no analysts have addressed this factor. Or is it a non-factor? Any historical data to guide us? 
There's been plenty of research done on this topic, but I'll first point to one piece from Scott Spratt at Pro Football Focus a few years ago that shows teams tend to pass less the lower the temperature gets, along with in situations where it is raining or snowing. That makes sense, though we're talking about relatively slim margins all the way around. 
We also find that quarterbacks tend to be less efficient on a per attempt basis in lower temperatures, in windy conditions, and in rain or snow. These are, again, relatively small impacts each, but it's not nothing. 
Another piece by Josh Mancuso at TowardsDataScience.com finds that QB Fantasy production takes, on average, a 9% hit in bad weather vs. ideal weather, which makes perfect sense. However, specifically when talking about temperature, Josh has this to say: 
"It appears that temperature, on its own, doesn't seem to have much of an effect. While it seems reasonable to assume that extremely hot or cold temperatures would have a real-world effect on quarterback performance, particularly extreme cold, once again the large error bars for those categories indicate insufficient sample sizes for statistical significance."
The Packers game is currently projected to see temperatures in the single digits, however precipitation is not expected, and extreme winds aren't either. The temperature is a concern, but not necessarily enough to scare me off Rodgers and Adams. I'm more concerned about the potential for wind and freezing conditions in Chicago or snow and winds in Tennessee and Buffalo. But nothing right now screams "avoid" to me, based on the research I've seen. 
Lane: Kyler Murray or Jalen Hurts, and will Kansas City sit Tyreek Hill again? 
I'm going with Kyler because I'm just worried about Hurts at this point. It seems like if he doesn't score a rushing touchdown, he's not very likely to have a great game. Murray, of course, hasn't been great himself of late, but he has the same rushing potential as Hurts but with a more productive passing game. The Cowboys force a ton of turnovers, but they've also been susceptible to the big play, and we know Kyler is always capable of that. Hurts has an excellent matchup, obviously, and this is very close, but I prefer Murray's upside in both facts of the game. 
As for Hill, this is a topic worth discussing and not just around Hill. While most players tend to come back fairly quickly from a positive COVID diagnosis, we've seen one NFL player hospitalized as a result of the illness and we've seen many others dealing with lingering issues and symptoms. Hill was one, and Mike Evans seems to be another – he was reportedly "very fatigued easily," per the Tampa Bay Times' Rick Stroud. Tyler Lockett also said he lost eight pounds and had breathing issues, which could explain his subpar showing in Week 16. 
That's a risk with any player coming back from COVID, but the hard thing about applying that in projecting the upcoming week is we don't know who exactly is dealing with those symptoms and we don't exactly have robust information on which players have or haven't seen decreased roles in their returns. It's all anecdotal evidence at this point, which means you probably don't want to downgrade players too much, though it's worth acknowledging the risk.
As for Hill, I would assume with a game and a full week of practice he'll be more or less back to his usual role in Week 17. There's some risk, and I've downgraded him a bit in the rankings, but not enough to make him not a No. 1 WR. 
Nico: Rank these players in PPR: Ezekiel Elliott, D'Andre Swift, Christian Kirk, Devonta Smith, Michael Pittman.
The problem here is, the guys I like best of this group are probably the two you want me to tell you not to play. But I'm going with Elliott and Swift here. I've made my thoughts on Elliott clear many times in recent weeks – I just think his role is too valuable not to start – he got nine carries and two touchdowns in effectively one half of football last week, and he had 21 targets in his previous four games. He's not a top-12 RB, but he's not far off. 
Swift is an even bigger risk coming back from the shoulder injury that has kept him out since Week 12, however he got back to practice last week and has been a full participant this week, so I'm expecting him to more or less play his typical role. OK, maybe I'm not expecting him to play 70-90% of the snaps against the Seahawks, but he should have his usual passing game role, at least. And, against a Seahawks defense that is allowing more receptions to running backs than any other, you have to like his odds of a pretty good game. Remember, we were treating Swift like a borderline top-five RB before the injury. 
So, the RBs at the top, followed by Pittman, Kirk and Smith, for me. 
Will: Dak Prescott or Matthew Stafford
I initially had Dak ranked higher, but after giving it some thought – and reading Jamey's case for him in Start 'Em & Sit 'Em – I'm pivoting to Stafford. It was a one-spot difference in their rankings, so it's not like I made some huge change. However, Stafford's recent (pre-Week 16) track record has been a lot stronger than Prescott's, and the matchup against Baltimore is more than a little better than Prescott's vs. Arizona.
Andy: My RB situation has killed me all season. I only need one: Tony Pollard, Boston Scott, Darrel Williams, or Rex Burkhead. 
I think you're actually in pretty good shape this week, because Williams is a top-15 RB for me with Clyde Edwards-Helaire out with his shoulder/collarbone injury. I'm a little worried that Derrick Gore will take a decent chunk of the rushing work, however, I still expect Williams to get the bulk of the passing downs and goal-line work. Remember, Williams averaged 17.8 PPR points per game in five without Edwards-Helaire earlier in the season. Even if you don't expect a repeat of that, he's worth starting. 
Brian: Antonio Gibson, Michael Pittman, DK Metcalf, Kyle Pitts, James Conner, and Elijah Mitchell. I need two. 
Even if Conner and Mitchell play, I'm probably avoiding them. Conner seems likely to be limited if he plays, and he's touchdown dependent as is with Edmonds active; Mitchell also seems likely to split work with Jeff Wilson even if he does return, plus Trey Lance figures to be an issue in the red zone, too.
Gibson would be my top choice if he gets through the week of practice OK, though obviously he's very beat up right now, so there's risk. 
And I think I would go with Pittman over Metcalf and Pitts. There's risk with all of them, and there are moving pieces involved, too – I would side with Metcalf over Pittman if Carson Wentz isn't cleared from the COVID list in time for Sunday's game. But Pittman seems a tad safer than Metcalf at this point and with similar upside thanks to a higher volume role in the passing game. 
Blake: 1. A.J. Brown, DJ Moore, or Amon-Ra St. Brown in half PPR? 2. Pick two RBs: Zeke, Edmonds, Boston Scott, Tony Pollard, or Jamaal Williams? Thanks!
I'm back to all-the-way-in on A.J. Brown after last week's massive performance. It feels like there's a sense that Brown has been disappointing this season, but I think that's mostly just due to bad touchdown luck and his injuries. In fact, if you take away the two games Brown left early due to injuries – Weeks 3 and 11 – his 16-game pace is 92 catches, 1,270 yards, seven touchdowns. And that's while playing at less than 100% for much of the season. He's a must-start WR, even with as much as I like both St. Brown and Moore.
As far as the running backs, I think it's sort of straightforward: If Conner is out, you're going with Edmonds as one of them; if Conner plays and Jordan Howard is out, you're going with Scott. You're starting Elliott either way. 
Bryan: With the Steelers offense going into the tank and the seeming mis-usage of Najee Harris over the past month, I'm not sure why everyone has him ranked as a top 10 (top 5 on some sites) RB this week against a pretty stout Cleveland running defense. Although I will probably start him after his previous performance against Cleveland in the hope his coaches figure out he's their best weapon on offense. I've also got Aaron Jones,who is TD dependent and in a timeshare, and Javonte Williams, who has the same issues. My fourth option is Rashaad Penny, and I feel like Penny is the higher upside/higher floor option as my RB2 going up against a pretty bad Detroit run defense. Which two would you start?
The issues you present for each back are certainly present, but I have both Jones and Harris ranked higher than Penny, though Jones is closer to him than Harris. The issue for Harris, at least, hasn't really been opportunity recently – he has 19 or more carries in three of the past four games with 20 targets across those four. The problem is the touches just haven't been all that valuable of late – he's been inefficient in the passing game and has a touchdown in just one of his past five. That'll happen when an offense is scuffling, but touchdowns are a lot more random than other types of production, so I'll keep betting on Harris.
I think Penny vs. Jones and Williams is an interesting one, and I could definitely be talked into Penny. He has an awesome matchup against the Lions and has a pretty high touchdown potential. It comes down to whether he finds the end zone, of course – if he does it once, he'll have a good game; twice and he'll have a great game. But that's his only path, really. There's considerable upside in this matchup for sure. 
Dave: At QB, Joe Burrow or Murray? At RB, need to pick two of these four: Melvin Gordon, Devonta Freeman, Elijah Mitchell, Michael Carter?
I have Burrow ranked one spot lower than Murray, but it's effectively a coin flip for me. When it comes to the projected performance, I actually had Murray quite a bit higher, but with how pass-happy the Bengals were last week, there's the potential for Burrow to throw more than normal this week as well. But Murray feels a bit safer, at least, with probably similar upside in what could be a shootout.
As for your running backs, I think Carter is the best choice with Tevin Coleman on the COVID list. It's a terrible offense, obviously, and a bad matchup, but the game script will hopefully lead to more targets than usual. By workload alone, Carter should be quite useful. And I would go with Gordon, unless we get some indication that Mitchell is going to be the true lead back in his first game, which I don't expect. 
 
 
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