Newmont made a bid for an Aussie rival | Tyson Food served up some boney results |
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Hi John, here's what you need to know for February 7th in 3:11 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. Newmont, the world’s biggest gold miner, has made a bid for Australian rival Newcrest
  2. Here’s how to approach a bull market with caution, just in case it’s a bear – Read Now
  3. US meat producer Tyson Foods reported some skin-and-bones results, and investors lost their appetites

Golden Handshake

Golden Handshake

What’s Going On Here?

US gold miner Newmont made a top-dollar bid for Australian rival Newcrest over the weekend.

What Does This Mean?

With names as similar as “Newcrest” and “Newmont”, you might suspect that these two mining firms are cut from the same cloth. And you’d be right: Newmont created Newcrest as its Australian arm in the 1960s, before spinning it off a few decades later. But with mining costs spiking and gold deposits harder to come by, companies are looking to dealmaking for more security and scale. Now Newmont, already the world’s biggest gold miner, is keen to buddy up with its old pal: the firm launched an all-share bid valuing the Aussie firm at $17 billion, 21% more than the company was worth before the bid was announced (tweet this). This move could be huge: as well as creating a global gold powerhouse, it would give the US titan access to Newcrest’s copper – an uber-hot commodity with EVs and renewable energy on the rise.

Why Should I Care?

Zooming in: Not set in stone.
The move has the makings of 2023's biggest deal-making blockbuster so far, but there’s still a ways to go. For one, the deal would hand one company 80% of Australia’s biggest gold mines, something the government would have to green-light. And for another, this offer could just spark a bidding war: Newcrest already rejected a lower offer by Newmont, and some analysts reckon rivals Barrick and Agnico Eagle will be sizing the firm up too.

The bigger picture: Diamond in the rough.
Gold has been gleaming bright in recent months, with prices up 15% since November, and there's a chance the shining streak could last. After all, it looks like economies could fall into a slump this year, forcing central banks to pause or even reverse their hikes. And if that happens while inflation’s still lingering, then gold – the world’s oldest safe haven and inflation hedge – could have a field day.

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Analyst Take

It Could Be The Start Of A Bull Market... Or Not

It Could Be The Start Of A Bull Market... Or Not
Photo of Stéphane Renevier

Stéphane Renevier, Analyst

The global economy is holding up pretty well, and stocks are moving like it’s 2021.

And right now the question on everyone’s lips seems to be: is this the start of a new bull market or just a tricky old bear market rally, destined to crumble? 

So that’s today’s Insight: we’re looking at the bull thesis and the bear one, and how to play this market with caution.

Read or listen to the Insight here

Empty Piggy Bank

Empty Piggy Bank

What’s Going On Here?

US meat producer Tyson Foods reported some pretty dire quarterly results on Monday.

What Does This Mean?

Tyson’s business was bringing home the bacon this time last year, thanks in large part to extra-juicy meat prices – but last quarter offered slim pickings in comparison. And that stands to reason: sirloin's a luxury in this economy, after all, so cash-strapped Americans either traded down from premium cuts of meat to cheaper options or held off on buying meat altogether. To make matters worse, beef – by far Tyson’s biggest segment – saw prices drop an average of 8.5%, while the spiking price of animal feed ate into takings even further. The fallout: Tyson’s overall profit fell a tear-inducing 70%, and investors suddenly lost their appetite and knocked shares by 5%. Not quite a rib-tickling time for the firm...

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: Salad days.
It's not unusual for folk to get less carnivorous when economies stall, but this time beef demand’s being hit particularly hard in even the most meat-loving nations – like Brazil, where the latest data showed consumption on track for a record low last year. That trend’s bad news for beef producers like Tyson and JBS, especially when they're contending with herd-shrinking droughts and mounting pressure from green-minded investors – but it is good news for the planet. After all, livestock’s the main culprit when it comes to agricultural greenhouse gasses, and some measures show that farming singlehandedly emits more greenhouse gasses than the entire transport industry.

Zooming out: Having a cow.
Meat producers may have run into a bit of a rut lately, but the cruelty-free counterparts that were supposed to upend the whole industry have been faring even worse: high prices and wary consumers have given Beyond Meat and its ilk a string of disappointing results. In fact, Tyson's stock has outperformed Beyond Meat’s by over 30% in the past year, even after its own meager update.

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💬 Quote of the day

“I didn’t attend the funeral, but I sent a nice letter saying I approved of it.”

– Mark Twain (American humorist, journalist, lecturer, and novelist)
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💰 How To Build A Smart Portfolio: 1pm, February 14th
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đŸ‘©â€đŸ’» Opportunities For Women In Blockchain 2023: 12.30pm, February 16th
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🗞 The Relationship Between News And The Markets: 5pm, February 21st
✍ What Are Investment DAOs And How Do They Work?: 6pm, February 22nd
đŸŒ„ Do Recessions Have A Silver Lining?: 5pm, March 8th

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