Roblox and Affirm keep us on tenterhooks | AstraZeneca is bored of Covid |

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Hi John, here's what you need to know for December 15th in 3:14 minutes.

💸 Let’s see off 2020 in style: join our founder Max on Friday to find out what the next year holds for Finimize, and take the chance to let him know what we’re doing well, how we can get better, and how delightful and funny the newsletter is. Get your free ticket to our soirée

Today's big stories

  1. Gaming platform Roblox and fintech Affirm put their stock market debuts on hold
  2. There are a couple of big reasons you might not want to get too excited about weed stocks' prospects – Read Now
  3. UK’s drugmaker AstraZeneca agreed to buy US biotech company Alexion

Pause For Effect

Pause For Effect

What’s Going On Here?

Games platform Roblox and fintech company Affirm were both planning to debut on the stock market this week, but – wait for it… wait for it… – they put them on hold over the weekend.

What Does This Mean?

The amount of money raised from initial public offerings (IPOs) has hit one record high after another in the last few months, and investors have been valuing newly listed tech companies at the highest levels since the dotcom bubble. But even amid the frenzy, Roblox and Affirm are now saying they’ll wait till next year to offer their shares to public investors. Affirm kept its reasons close to its chest, but they might be similar to Roblox’s: the gaming platform admitted on Friday that Airbnb and DoorDash’s hugely successful IPOs last week made it too difficult to settle on the right price for its shares (tweet this).

Why Should I Care?

Bigger picture: Aim higher. 
You might’ve thought Roblox and Affirm would jump at the chance to list their shares, especially considering DoorDash and Airbnb’s share prices shot up by more than 80% and 100% on their first days of trading. But that spike actually means those companies could’ve made a lot more money than they did. See, DoorDash and Airbnb were advised to sell their shares at a specific “IPO price” that ended up being far lower than public investors thought they were worth. In other words, they could’ve sold their shares for more to start with – a situation Roblox and Affirm don’t want to find themselves in.

For markets: Sticking with tradition.
Roblox reportedly played around with the idea of a direct listing, which involves putting its shares directly onto the market. That cuts out the investment banking middle-man and its hefty fees, and lets investors directly decide how much its shares are worth. Ultimately, though, the company might’ve decided the advice of seasoned IPO professionals was well worth the extra buck or two.

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2. Analyst Take

US Weed Stocks Might Be Too High, Man

What’s Going On Here?

With investors excited about the prospect of nationwide legalization, weed stocks have been getting giddier and giddier since the US election.

Both the biggest single cannabis stock and the biggest cannabis exchange-traded fund (ETF) in terms of money invested have risen more than 40%, versus the US stock market’s roughly 10%.

Investors, it seems, think there are good omens that nationwide legalization is coming – omens like, say, recent legislation that proposes decriminalizing weed altogether.

But at the risk of being a buzzkill, those good omens for legalization don’t hold up.

That’s what we’re looking at in today’s Insight: why investors’ expectations are flawed, as well as why that could ultimately end in disappointment for weed companies themselves.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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Diagnosis Merger

Diagnosis Merger

What’s Going On Here?

AstraZeneca might not want to operate heavy-machinery for 24 hours: the UK drugmaker agreed to buy US biotech company Alexion for a dizzying $39 billion over the weekend, in one of this year's biggest mergers.

What Does This Mean?

AstraZeneca hit the headlines not long ago for developing an effective coronavirus vaccine alongside the University of Oxford. But like all of us, it’s looking forward to not having to think about the pandemic every day, and its merger with Alexion will give it an excuse to shift its focus onto something else entirely: rare diseases.

Both companies seem to have been hunting for a deal for a while now. Alexion, for its part, has been under pressure to find a buyer from an activist investor who’s been pushing for a change in company strategy. AstraZeneca, meanwhile, has reportedly been determined to take advantage of a soaring share price by using its shares to pay for new acquisitions.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Odd couple.
AstraZeneca’s shares fell 6% on the news, which is more common than you’d think. A buyer’s share price often falls after an acquisition announcement, with investors worried either that it’s paying too much for the deal or that it’ll struggle to successfully integrate the new business with its own. The latter seems to be their biggest concern in this particular case: it’s not like there’s a lot of overlap between the two companies’ products, after all.

The bigger picture: No more playing games.
Dealmaking’s having a bit of a moment, with last quarter smashing records and this one on track to do it all over again. And it’s not slowing down just because it’s almost Christmas: social media firm Reddit bought TikTok-rival Dubsmash on Monday in a bid to keep up with the surge in popularity of video-sharing, while video game giant Electronic Arts announced it’d be buying rival studio Codemasters in a deal worth $1.2 billion.

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💬 Quote of the day

“Idleness is not doing nothing. Idleness is being free to do anything.”

– Floyd Dell (an American newspaper and magazine editor)
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💻 What we're browsing

  • Sponsored: Set your investing strategy, and M1 will automate it for free (M1 Finance)
  • One man’s quest to clear his name (Vox)
  • Walmart’s employees are influencers now (Modern Retail)
🤔 Q&A · RE: Home Sweet Home

“Why did the shares of DoorDash and Airbnb rise so much immediately after their initial public offerings (IPOs)?”

– Heather in Croydon, UK

“A common line of thinking is that the investment banks in charge of the IPOs didn’t set ambitious enough initial share prices (and therefore valuations). But it could also have been savvy work on the part of the investors who got in before those shares hit the market: they might’ve said they’d pay less than they were really willing to, intentionally misleading the banks in order to snag themselves a bargain price. Add to that the investors who wanted to buy in but couldn’t, and a day-one rise might’ve been inevitable. But one other possible reason is just how few businesses there are that do what Airbnb and DoorDash do: the former is both relatively new and unlike any other real estate business, while the latter’s 50% US market share probably means it’s closer to turning a profit than rival Uber Eats. Put simply, investors might just have wanted a piece of them no matter the cost.”

Finimize

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🌍 Finimize Community

😐 2020? More like 20-plenty…

You’ve had your fill of this year. We’ve had our fill of this year. So let’s just lean on each other to get through these final few weeks: there are three entertaining and useful Finimize events left, and they’re the perfect distraction. Then we can all meet back here in 2021, refreshed and excited for a year where absolutely nothing is going to go wrong. Right? Right?

🚘 Rally Rd Founder on Alternative Investing: 1pm New York Time, December 15th
💊 Are Psychedelics the New Weed Stocks? w/ ex-Canopy CEO: 1pm New York Time, December 17th
🚀 Finimize End-of-Year Soirée: 1pm UK Time, December 18th

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