Situational Analysis | July 14, 2021

It's Wednesday and Bastille Day in France. Allons, enfants de la patrie, Le jour de gloire est arrivé.

It's also National Mac & Cheese Day. Kids everywhere are surely celebrating.

Be in the Know

1. President Joe Biden has appointed former Senator Jeff Flake to be the Ambassador to Turkey, a move applauded by both Utah Senators.

2. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 0.9% in June, the largest month-over-month increase in the inflationary measure since June 2008. The index for used cars and trucks is up a whopping 10.5%. On an annual basis, CPI is up 5.4%.

3. Senate Democrats announce plans for $3.5 trillion "human infrastructure" budget package to expand Medicare, boost federal safety net programs, combat climate change and boost health, education and social programs. The agreement marks effort to bridge differences between the liberal and centrist wings of the party. They hope to use the reconciliation process, requiring only 50 votes, to pass the bill.

4. Don't mess with a good thing! Coke Zero is undergoing a recipe change and rebrand and has already launched the change internationally. Fans were not impressed. One gave Coke a shoutout for helping her quit her Coke Zero 'addiction' because the "new taste is so bad." Sigh. Just when I found a diet soda I actually liked. 

Utah Headlines

General

• Most never shoot at someone, but these 38 Utah officers have pulled the trigger multiple times (Salt Lake Tribune)
• UDOT holds open house to gather public comments on Little Cottonwood Canyon travel alternatives (Salt Lake Tribune)
• Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson speaks out: She’s against a Little Cottonwood Canyon gondola (Salt Lake Tribune)
• Flash floods sweep through parts of Utah, more strong storms on the way (ABC4)
• Microburst sweeps through Spanish Fork, leaving downed trees and damage (Fox13)
• After discovering their mutual cheating boyfriend, 3 Utah and Idaho women moved into a bus to see the West together (Salt Lake Tribune)

Politics

• Utah Sen. Mitt Romney says it’s ‘moronic’ for conservatives to politicize the COVID vaccines, laments the CPAC crowd cheering that the U.S. missed Biden’s July 4 inoculation goal. (Salt Lake Tribune)
• Mike Lee: Critical race theory attacks what it means to be an American (Deseret News)
• John Curtis calls for more telehealth in rural communities (Daily Herald)

COVID Corner

• 471 cases, 3 deaths
• LDS mission president dies after weekslong struggle with COVID-19 (Deseret News)
• Utah hospitals are filling up, and more than 95% of the COVID patients weren’t vaccinated (Salt Lake Tribune)
• COVID outbreaks in summer camps happening every week, Utah County health officials say (ABC4)
• Utah pharmacist disciplined for fraudulently filling out COVID-19 vaccine cards (KUTV)
• US COVID-19 cases rising again, doubling over three weeks (AP)
• With the delta variant spreading, vaccine deserts are becoming increasingly concerning (Deseret News)

Economic Development

• Weber County Commissioner Gage Froerer is aiding with Utah economic development strategy on new commission (Standard-Examiner)

Economy

• Utah Restaurant Association celebrates Utah’s resilient restaurant industry (Utah Business)
• July 2021 Economic Snapshot: As COVID recedes, job growth accelerates (Zions Bank)

Elections

• On Message with Marty Carpenter: Ya lost me there (UTPOL Underground)

Environment

• Suzanne Harrison: Public lands pay dividends, and false narratives hurt Utahns the most (Salt Lake Tribune)

Family

• Perspective: Andrew Cuomo’s daughter may have made it hip, but ‘demisexual’ is a tale as old as time (Deseret News)

Legal

• Salt Lake City business owner sues the DABC after it took away her bar license (Salt Lake Tribune)

National Headlines

General

• There's a word for what Trumpism is becoming and it's time to start using that F-word again, writes David Frum, former speechwriter for President George W. Bush. (The Atlantic)
• Acclaim, fundraising spread unevenly among Black colleges (AP)
• US invites UN’s racism and human rights envoys to visit (AP)

Politics

• In Philadelphia, Biden assails the election lie spread by Republicans: ‘Have you no shame?’ (New York Times)
• Senate Democrats Announce $3.5 Trillion Budget Agreement (NPR)
• More money, more problems: Cheney and Kinzinger feel Trump effect (Politico)
• VP Harris emerges as main GOP foil on campaign trail (The Hill)

Economy

• Prices rise 5.4 percent in June over last year, largest spike since 2008, as economy continues to recover (Washington Post)
• Lumber Prices Are Way Down—But Don’t Expect New Houses to Cost Less (Wall Street Journal)

Energy

• OPEC Reaches Compromise With U.A.E. Over Oil Production (Wall Street Journal)
• Energy Department Targets Vastly Cheaper Batteries to Clean Up the Grid (New York Times)

Environment

• AP Interview: EPA water chief on clean water protections (AP)

International

• 'I came here to fight': Rare footage of Ethiopia's Tigray (AP)
• South African crowds rampage, hospital operations disrupted (Reuters)

Policy News

Wasatch Innovation Network launched to promote Utah innovation and business

Public and private sector organizations across Utah gathered Tuesday to announce a statewide multi-industry initiative to promote research, development and commercialization with the goal of developing Utah as a global innovation economy. The new organization called the Wasatch Innovation Network (WIN) is a 501(c)6 nonprofit that will promote Utah as an international leader in innovation, technology transfer, manufacturing and marketing, as well as offer support services to businesses throughout the state. (Read More)

Rep. Stewart secures bipartisan agreement to obtain JEDI investigation information

Congressman Chris Stewart (R-UT) secured a bipartisan agreement to obtain documentation and information from the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD). This critical information is regarding the findings of an investigation into the Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure (JEDI) program. The ten-year, $10 billion contract is ride with ethical and procurement issues. Despite that fact, and despite multiple requests from Rep. Stewart, the DOD has failed to deliver full responses regarding these serious concerns. (Read More)

Sen. Lee and Rep. Buck question Amazon’s role in JEDI contract

After indications of Amazon improperly influencing the Department of Defense’s Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure (JEDI) contract bidding process, Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) and Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) issued the following statement.
Sen. Lee and Rep. Buck stated jointly, “This is exactly what we were concerned about, and it contradicts Amazon’s insistence that there is nothing to see here. It’s becoming more and more clear that Amazon used its market power and paid-for connections to circumvent ethical boundaries and avoid competition in an attempt to win this contract. Now, more than ever, we need to ask Amazon, under oath, whether it tried to improperly influence the largest federal contract in history.” Read More

As Utah struggles with labor shortages, business/community leaders join Dreamers in urging Sens. Romney & Lee to back bipartisan immigration bills

With Utah hard hit by long-term labor shortages that have grown more severe during the pandemic, business and community leaders will stand alongside Dreamers to urge Utah’s Republican Sens. Mitt Romney and Mike Lee that immigrant workers are vital to the state’s workforce and key to our economic recovery.
The American Business Immigration Coalition Intermountain Chapter, Salt Lake City Chamber, New American Economy, Salt Lake Area Restaurant Association, Utah World Trade Center, and Mormon Women for Ethical Government will hold anews conference Wednesday, July 14, at the World Trade Center (60 East South Temple, Suite 300) in Salt Lake City, at 3:30 pm MT. (Read More)

Romney office announces staff changes

U.S. Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT) today announced the following changes to his communications staff: Brianna Manzelli, Communications Director, Paige Waltz, Deputy Communications Director, Arielle Mueller, Press Secretary and Dilan Maxfield, Deputy Press Secretary and Digital Director. Read more about them here.

Number of the Day

Commentary: Is a $300 to $400 million tax cut small, medium or large?

By Polly Policy

With a very large revenue surplus to be reported in the coming month, the question becomes – What will lawmakers do with the money? We’ve heard suggestions of continuing to spend it on large projects or do very large WPU value increases, upwards of 15%. Others have suggested giving a $300 million or $400 million tax cut. We’ve heard some suggest that a $300 million or $400 million tax cut is too small, while others say it’s very large. Which one is it? The answer lies in the denominator.
Growth in the State Budget
The state budget comprises revenue from sales tax, income tax, and a host of other taxes. On a broader view, it also includes revenue from the federal government, fees, fines, and other revenue sources. Looking specifically at what lawmakers typically consider – free revenue – revenue will be up almost $4 billion since 2016. That’s growth of almost 60% in just six years. Virtually all of this has been spent.

A $300 Million Tax Cut as a Percent of the State Budget

With this background in mind, how much would a $300 million tax cut be? Looking towards 2022, total revenue to the free revenue bucket of the state government (General Fund/Education Fund) will be around $9.5 billion. Putting $300 million in the numerator and $9.5 billion in the denominator gives a tax cut of 3% for fiscal year 2022. Is 3% small, medium, or large? To answer this, let’s look at how much a $300 million tax cut would have been since 2004.

How much would a $300 million tax cut be in past years? The trend is downwards. In 2004, a $300 million tax cut would have been around 7.4%. In 2008, when policymakers opted for $400 million in tax cuts, the tax cut was around 6%. As mentioned, in 2022, a $300 million tax cut is much smaller at 3%.

Upcoming

• Securing the American Dream: A conversation with Tim Scott presented by the Hatch Foundation – Aug 11 @ noon. Register here
• Utah Foundation Annual Luncheon with Shaylyn Romney Garrett – Sept 23 @ 12 pm. Register here

On This Day In History

From History.com

• 1099 - Jerusalem captured in the First Crusade
• 1789 - French revolutionaries storm the Bastille, marking the beginning of the French Revolution.
• 1881 - Billy the Kid is shot and killed by Sheriff Pat Garrett. He was 21.
• 1911 - Gertrude Goldhaber is born. She became a physicist and early researcher into nuclear structure and the properties of nuclei. She was the third woman to be elected to the National Academy of Sciences.
• 1913 - Gerald R. Ford is born.
• 1917 - 16 women from the National Women’s Party were arrested while picketing the White House demanding universal women’s suffrage; they were charged with obstructing traffic.
• 1936 - Buddhist nun Pema Chodron is born

Wise Words

"All situations teach you, and often it’s the tough ones that teach you best."
-Pema Chodron

Lighter Side

After Fox News called Arizona for Biden on election night, Giuliani advised the former president, ‘Just go declare victory right now. You’ve got to go declare victory now.’ It’s an age-old strategy: After a devastating loss, just say you won.”

— STEPHEN COLBERT

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