It seems that way

Good Morning Voornaam,

What are you doing at lunchtime tomorrow? If you're free at 12pm, put on your equity analyst hat while you eat your lunch and attend the Unlock the Stock session featuring the management team of TWK Investments. You need to register here.

To see what this platform is all about, you can watch the recording of the most recent event that featured Piet Viljoen and Jan van Niekerk representing investment holding company Astoria. As you'll see in this video, there's a management presentation and then a vibrant Q&A session, so it is well wort h attending the live event.

Other ways to learn this morning

  • With Alexander Weiss of Trive South Africa, you can learn a great deal about banking (both locally and abroad) by listening to Episode 120 of Magic Markets. With Capitec results freshly released in the market, it's a great time to improve your knowledge of the sector!
  • In my recent appearance on The Money Show with Bruce Whitfield, I talked about my approach to research and why I believe that just having common sense and stayin g alert to the world around you is one of the most important steps in the process.
  • To get the latest on global interest rates and inflation, there's a great new video by the team at TreasuryONE. Join Ilze-Marie Le Roux for an update on the macroeconomic drivers that affect all of us, every day. Watch it on the TreasuryONE YouTube channel.

Capitec - I'm a long way from being long

In case you don't know, "being long" means having a position in a stock where you hope it will increase in value. At this valuation, I would be long Transnet before being long Capitec. Perhaps I'm just feeling more opportunistic after reading Afrimat's c omment on Transnet that came out yesterday.

Cheekiness aside, the reality is that Capitec cannot grow at high rates forever. At some point, the gain in market share slows down and the economic challenges of South Africa start to hit the business. The bank has achieved extraordinary things to get to this point, but the market put an even more extraordinary valuation on the company. In the latest results, HEPS didn't go up because of a great revenue performance. No, it went up because the staff got smaller bonuses, which was enough to offset a major jump in impairments.

Would you like to pay a huge premium to book value for a business that grew earnings because the staff earned less? Me neither.

In addition to the Capitec update and numbers from Afrimat (along with interesting commentary), I have copper news for you from Anglo American and Copper 360. There's also an AUM update from Ninety One and a successful debt restructuring at Sasol.

I know you're busy, so here's a whirlwind update

Some people are short Capitec. We are all short on time. To help with that, the Ghost Wrap podcast is designed to bring you my views on the most interesting stories of the week, packaged into an 8 - 10 minute podcast.

The latest episode brings you insights into Aveng, PSG Konsult, De Beers (with a read-through into Richemont), Alphamin, Universal Partners, Stor-Age, Sappi and Glencore. Ghost Wrap is brought to you by Mazars.

A Chinese boose to commodities

The dollar rally has faded, helping the rand move back below R18.20. TreasuryONE notes today's local CPI release and highlights an expectation of 6.9% year-on-year vs. 7.0% in February. This is unlikely to provide much volatility in the greater scheme of things.

Positive Chinese GDP and Production numbers sent metal prices on a rally today, which is terrific news for South Africa. Palladium registered a 5% gain on the day. Gold is still trading above $2,000.

And finally, in an article that brings together the currency and equity markets, Nico Katzke of Satrix wrote about tactical vs. strategic hedging of the rand in a balanced portfolio. It's a great read.

Good luck out there today!

Ghost Bites (Afrimat | Anglo American | Capitec | Copper 360 | Ninety One | Sasol)

Afrimat and Capitec were the major earnings releases on the day. There's copper news from Anglo American and Copper 360. Ninety One's AUM drops further. Sasol is popular with banks.

Astoria joined Unlock the Stock for the first time, giving investors insight into the portfolio that offers diverse exposure to a range of sectors.

Unlock the Stock: Astoria
Trimming the Hedges: What to Do with the Rand in Your Portfolio?

Few need reminding of the volatility of our currency and the devastating impact it has on imported good prices, and our ability to travel in comfort.

 

There's some juicy dealmaking this week (Stor-Age, Sappi and Glencore), alongside tough numbers from Aveng and good ones at Alphamin and PSG Konsult. Watch out for Chinese luxury demand at De Beers and Richemont!

 

South African banks are solid and less risky than global counterparts, but why? And what does this mean for returns and how to assess risk management? Together with Alexander Weiss of Trive South Africa, we unpacked this topic.

 

In my first ever appearance on The Money Show, Bruce Whitfield invited me to an Investment School segment to discuss what I love most: researching stocks and understanding companies.

You should expect us in your inbox Monday – Friday. If you don’t receive an email, please check your spam, or junk folder and “move us” into your primary inbox to ensure you get it each morning.



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